TullyHeel
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Everything posted by TullyHeel
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Either way, it would be a big winter storm here, even if it isn't snow.
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Well, more room for me up here on the cliff with all the folks jumping after that one NAM run. If you know things are going to always turn out bad, I'm not sure why you even come on here until 24 hours out before a storm is supposed to hit.
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If you're married and/or have kids, I'd bank on one of those.
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That is what I was wondering, if it was based on any other data they have right now, or if it is just based on what has happened in the past.
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Okay, so where is the info that shows they could be wrong? What is the other info that RAH is basing their forecast on right now? What other data are they using besides the fact storms as big as the models are showing are rare here?
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It been is just hard for me to ignore the consistency and agreement with the various models. I know what has happened in the past, but we also don't usually have this much consistency and agreement with the models. They would all have to be wrong or start to do a complete 180 now.
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Yet, all the models went farther east with snow. I would really like to know why they think it will be different.
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What did he say?
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That is what I am looking for, too. If you have some other reason or technology showing the models are wrong, then what is it? Just because it is rare to get a storm like the models show here and this early in December is not enough reason.
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History also told us Florence should have went out to sea, and it the models were right.
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Wow, looked like the GFS, Euro, FV3, and NAM all crushed NC last night from Raleigh westward. I don't think I have ever seen all the models do that before.
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Canadian went south, eh?
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So, cooler or warmer?
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NAM really bringing in the cold air to NC.
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I just don't think you can discount the consistency of the models, and how different models are showing the same thing over and over. And everything has trended colder and farther south and east with the snow all day. Yeah, I can see questioning getting a foot here, but even half of that would be amazing this early in December. I just don't see this being more rain than mostly snow and other frozen precip based on how consistent and similar the Euro, GFS, FV3, and NAM have been.
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Looks like the totals increased again farther south and east on the GFS.
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We also saw a hurricane do something that has never been done before with Florence.
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This might be more realistic.
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I believe.
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Models just keep getting better and better. Really hope the rug is not going to be pulled out from under us.
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GFS before it got stuck.
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Looks like almost all snow this time. Colder and farther south has been the theme today.
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I think all the major ones except the ICON.
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And I have heard numerous times the CAD is often stronger and harder to erode than the models show.
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That look reminds me so much of what it looked like the evening before the Carolina Crusher in Jan 2000. I remember looking at the radar before leaving work that night and wondering why the local forecasters and RAH was not calling for much of anything here with regards to snow. I know the technology has improved since then. But now it seems like they don't believe the technology this go around.
