TullyHeel

Been raining here all morning, but doubt we'll get anything severe. Nothing really to spark the storms now that we've had rain already.

Yes, we have seen a lot worse. I don't think we are far off from getting some serious winter storm threats here. We're just taking baby steps to get everything set up for them, and it's hard to be patient now that we're in the middle of December.

NAM showing snow for most of NC.

GFS ensemble mean showing pretty much everyone in NC seeing snow.

If anyone in the SE sees any snow at all falling in November, it should be counted as a win.

GFS looking better this time, too.

Well, the NAM is either drunk or a genius.

Euro looking interesting again.

With the way the models have been flipping back and forth like they said, it's probably best to just wait and see until we get closer. Euro showed potential first, then the GFS came along and really increased totals while the Euro decreased potential, and now we're back to the Euro showing more potential than the GFS again. And we'll probably see more back and forth and swamping since we're still a week out.

The 12th to 15th period has been looking interesting since Monday. First, it looked like we might have a shot on the 12th, then the 14th, and now this looks like the 15th. Anything we see now in terms of winter weather, even if it's just a few flakes and no accumulation, would be awesome since we're just entering the middle of November. Hope this is a sign of good things to come this winter.

Looks like all the action in NC is north of 40 and moving NE.

Just saw I am under a severe storm warning until 4:15.

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Raleigh NC 349 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2019 NCC037-202000- /O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0096.000000T0000Z-190620T2000Z/ Chatham NC- 349 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2019 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM EDT FOR CHATHAM COUNTY... At 349 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Butner to 6 miles north of Pittsboro to 8 miles south of Siler City, moving east at 50 mph. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Emergency management reports numerous powerlines down across the City of Chapel Hill. IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings. Locations impacted include... Pittsboro, Siler City, Goldston, Crosswinds Boating Center, Crosswinds Campground, Harpers Crossroads, Jordan Lake State Rec Area, Bynum, Seaforth Boat Dock and Moncure.

Looking out the window here at work and the clouds look really ominous.

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 309 PM EDT THU JUN 20 2019 NCC001-063-077-081-135-145-201930- /O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0094.000000T0000Z-190620T1930Z/ ALAMANCE NC-PERSON NC-ORANGE NC-GRANVILLE NC-GUILFORD NC-DURHAM NC- 309 PM EDT THU JUN 20 2019 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM EDT FOR ALAMANCE...EASTERN PERSON...ORANGE...GRANVILLE...SOUTHEASTERN GUILFORD AND DURHAM COUNTIES... AT 309 PM EDT, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR VIRGILINA TO 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF ROUGEMONT TO GRAHAM, MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORT NUMEROUS TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA, ESPECIALLY PORTIONS OF PERSON COUNTY. IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO MOBILE HOMES, ROOFS, AND OUTBUILDINGS. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... DURHAM, CHAPEL HILL, BURLINGTON, GRAHAM, OXFORD, HILLSBOROUGH, CREEDMOOR, CARRBORO, MEBANE AND BUTNER. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... STRAIGHT LINE WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES, POWER LINES, AND DAMAGE MOBILE HOMES AND OTHER BUILDINGS. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AS FLYING DEBRIS GENERATED BY DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE DEADLY. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS, AND MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

That is a huge area. Also saw the SPC was discussing a possible watch from VA to NY.

Well, that answers my question. GA up to VA under the gun.

Watch is out until 10:00 pm. Covers all of SC, most of GA, and some of NC. Weird border for NC. Wonder if we'll get another watch here.

3K NAM looks scary for NC and SC.

Mesoscale Discussion 1160 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019 Areas affected...North Carolina...Virginia...Maryland and Delaware Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 201623Z - 201830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop during the early afternoon posing a risk for damaging wind and hail. A severe thunderstorm watch will probably be needed by 18-19Z. DISCUSSION...The warm sector continues to destabilize over a large part of the Mid Atlantic region from North Carolina through VA and MD. Surface dewpoints around 70F and temperatures warming through the mid to upper 80s have boosted MLCAPE to 1500-2000 J/kg. WV imagery shows the primary shortwave trough over the TN Valley, but with an MCV moving through the southern Appalachians. These features are progressive, and the accompanying forcing for ascent along with boundary layer destabilization should result in an increase in thunderstorm coverage and intensity this afternoon. Wind profiles are unidirectional west southwesterly with 30-40 kt deep-layer flow, but modest 0-6 km shear generally less than 35 kt. This environment will support mostly multicell modes, but mid-level updraft rotation will also be possible in some storms. Activity may evolve into clusters and line segments with time posing a risk for damaging wind and hail through the afternoon into early evening.

First watch coming soon. Mesoscale Discussion 1159 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019 Areas affected...southeast Alabama...central and southern Georgia and South Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 201602Z - 201800Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop by 17-18Z over a large part of the Southeast U.S. and increase in coverage and intensity during the afternoon, posing a risk for damaging wind and hail. A WW will probably be needed for a portion of this region by 17Z. DISCUSSION...A moist warm sector resides over a large part of the southeast U.S. with dewpoints around 70F and temperatures climbing through the mid 80s F as of 16Z. Latest objective analysis indicate MLCAPE around 1500-2000 J/kg and further destabilization will occur as the surface layer continues to warm. Water vapor imagery shows a progressive shortwave trough moving through the TN Valley, with an MCV also indicated over southeast TN/northern GA. A low-level confluence zone is forecast to evolve well inland from the coast from southern AL through southern GA. The combination of forcing for ascent associated with the MCV and progressive shortwave trough, surface layer destabilization and subtle boundaries, should promote warm sector initiation by early afternoon. While deep-layer wind profiles are unidirectional west southwesterly with small 0-1 km hodographs, a belt of 50 kt mid-level winds within the base of the trough is resulting in 30-35 kt effective bulk shear. This environment should support both multicell and some supercell structures with discrete modes eventually evolving into lines and clusters capable of damaging wind and hail.

Possible tornado forming on this news feed. https://www.wwltv.com/live-video

Tornado warning for New Orleans now.