Brick Tamland

Just glad to see it head in the positive direction instead of the other way right now.

It's creeping.

Euro and GFS looked better last run. We'll see.

Was for RDU eastward in NC.

Euro ensembles look good, too.

The Euro improved, and the GEFS improved for Raleigh eastward. Not dead by any means for NC and VA. Wouldn't take much for it to be a bigger deal this way.

It's getting there.

Back and forth we go

Sone of you must have forgotten what happened with the models with the storm we just had.

They have been saying the Euro did the best with the last storm, too, and it didn't. They always hug the Euro.

Yeah, seen a lot of folks mention the Christmas 2010 storm in comparison to this one.

Probably late to the party again. Not sure why some local mets here said it was the best with the last storm.

Reminds me a bit of the storm we just had with where the higher totals are.

We have a storm thread folks.

GFS looks good again. I'm sure it will lead the way.

I don't think it's that far off.

ICON looks close.

What does everyone think about this statement? Nah. Euro was the consistent model last week and showed the signs of snow first. Elizabeth and I were texting about the Euro about 7 days before that snow. GFS caught on a few days later. Euro held steady when GFS wavered and when high resolution models were out to lunch. Consistency is key.

Euro has been all over the place, though. The last storm had runs where some models had it and some didn't, too.

Baby steps. GFS showed a monster storm just a day ago. Then we see it go too far east, and already start coming back west a little bit every run with the models. Maybe it won't work out this time, but we have seen this happen before with the models when NC ends up getting a good storm.

What's worse and more inconsistent, the models or Carolina's basketball team?

Good. We did this song and dance with the last storm, except it waited until 48 hours out to go east before correcting back NW again.

Isn't this kind of what we were saying at this point with the last storm about the ensembles not matching the ops?

Who made Fishel mad? OK I’M GONNA CALL SOME PEOPLE OUT HERE. SOME OF THESE FOLKS ARE METEOROLOGISTS AND KNOW BETTER, WHILE OTHERS ARE RANK AMATEURS WHO THINK THEY KNOW WAY MORE THAN THEY DO. I DON’T CARE WHICH GROUP YOU’RE IN, IF YOU’RE POSTING DETERMINISTIC MODEL FORECASTS A WEEK OUT SHOWING SOME WEATHER CALAMITY, YOU’RE NOT IN THIS TO SERVE OTHERS, BUT RATHER TO SERVE YOURSELF. YOU’RE HOPING AGAINST HOPE THAT A MIRACLE WILL OCCUR AND YOU’LL BE ABLE TO BEAT YOUR CHEST AND SAY YOU WERE THE FIRST, AND THAT PEOPLE WILL FORGET ABOUT ALL THE OTHER TIMES YOU WERE WRONG. AND DO ANY OF YOU UNDERSTAND THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABALISTIC FORECASTS, AND THAT THE LATTER IS THE ONLY RESPONSIBLE WAY TO GO? LOOK, I KNOW OF WHAT I SPEAK. I WENT THROUGH THAT ATTENTION SEEKING, INSECURE PHASE DURING MY 20S, AND THEN I GREW UP. I HIGHLY SUGGEST THAT WE ALL REMEMBER WHY WE DO THIS, PUBLIC SERVICE AND NOT SELF SERVICE.