bubba hotep

Combo of guidance is pointing towards Sunday having the potential to be a sub freezing high day at DFW. We've seen this before this winter at this range and the models have been too cold.

12z GFS showing two chances of winter weather for the DFW area over the next 10 days.

That was an interesting way to end the discussion. 18z GFS wasn't as encouraging as some of the previous runs but the cold air is there. It's just kind of a crappy setup with a positive tilted trough with energy hanging back in the SW. If that trough could get a more neutral orientation and that energy could kick out a bit faster... The 12z Euro drops about 1/3" of an inch of rain at DFW with temps in the mid-30s, so it isn't far off from something.

Just once be right long range GFS, just this one time!

18z GFS is decent at 500mb but is torching...

12z Para-GFS a bit faster with a system around the 18th/19th. Still points to that being a time frame to watch.

12z Euro wasn't all bad and it highlights the potential for a storm around the 20th. It has a stronger northern stream vort that crushes the southern stream giving us a positive tilted sheared out mess. Small changes in timing or strength of features could result in a big storm. Maybe a time period to start paying closer attention to.

That is a better look for us with no low over the Great Lakes and a s/w digging across Texas with some cold air in place. We can dream about the end result but it will probably be gone at 12z:

At least we have the Canadian on our side...

Despite the models looking promising in the longer range from time to time the pattern always seems to go back to the default of the past few years. We can't seem to kick that theme of just getting glancing blows of cold air followed by rapid warm ups.

The 00z Euro looks like it could produce a big storm beyond D10. Plenty of cold sitting on top with lots of energy back in the SW. If the ejection and timing were right, that could result in a classic storm.

The roads should be plowed all the way to Iowa by the 26th based on the Christmas Eve snow map

12z GFS was just straight up crazy with this for the grand finale!

Didn't look at 06z until just now, that run actually got DFW into the single digits. The GFS is looking cold in the longer range.

Wow... 12z GFS finally does away with that stubborn SW ridge. Bombs away!

Anyone seeing flurries? The cold seems to lagging, forecast for my area was a low around 28 and it is still 33 here.

00z GFS looks to bring the coldest air of the winter to DFW next week.

A bit of a northward shift on the 18z GFS. The only interesting thing today in the models was the 12z Euro EPS. It had a nice northward shift with a solid cluster of members with snow at DFW.

The 00z Euro has sub freezing highs for the DFW area next Thursday. Unlike this cold blast, there is stronger Euro EPS support with the ensemble mean nearly as cold as the operational. Also, the 00z Euro EPS shows another dump around the 18th. Beyond that, there is a pretty big spread but the colder side is some of the coldest I've seen on the Euro EPS this winter with members down in the single digits at DFW.

Now we wait for a NE trend that may never show:

We've gotten lucky in DFW in the past with these sneaky little disturbances that end up overperforming. You've been pretty steadfast that this was a possible solution. Now to track that little vort max to see if will tip its hand early.

When I did that analysis last winter, IIRC, all the McFarland events that I analyzed occured during La Ninas. None occurred during El Nino.

The 12z Euro EPS had a bit of a NE trend with about 10 members getting the DFW area in on the action.

From FWD AFD: For late Wednesday into Thursday---Broad troughing should be enough to assist any weak frontogenetical forcing to produce some very light precipitation late Wednesday into Thursday. Both GFS and ECMWF models output a fair amount of QPF just south of the I-20 corridor and down through Central TX. While there is good agreement in both of these models, the overall forcing appears pretty subtle and as a result, I`ll trend on the lower side for my PoP/QPF. If forcing becomes stronger/more apparent---it`s possible that PoP/QPF will need to be adjusted in magnitude and space. P-type forecast is difficult due to the uncertainty revolving around the amount of lift juxtaposed with the best moisture and cold air. As mentioned above, most NWP appears to be too warm with regards to their hourly temperature output. In addition, it`s likely that if precipitation is falling, more cooling of the lower troposphere will likely continue. After closely examining model soundings and discussion with surrounding offices, I`ve added some wintry precipitation, mainly along and southwest of an area bounded by an Eastland to Waxahachie to Waco to Temple/Killeen line. Initial precipitation in the wake of the front will start out as light rain/drizzle before transitioning to light freezing/rain/drizzle. As the depth of the colder air increases and secondary ice processes (seeder-feeder) begin to dominate, a transition to light snow will be possible for the aformentioned areas.

I just glanced at things earlier but it looks like a trade off between solutions with warmer coming with a better chance of winter precipitation vs. a colder solution FWD.