bubba hotep
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Everything posted by bubba hotep
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Day 2 northward bump to include portions of the DFW area: -
Plenty of anomalously high PWAT air pooled up across the northern Gulf right now.
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There is always this to track....
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After flipping through some analogs, the current +PDO seems to be the wrench in things. Dec '83 was during a +PDO but most others were during -PDO periods - '49, '51, '62, '64, '73, '75, '13. Over the last few days there was a pretty big warm signal in the ensemble spread with the operational runs on the colder edge of the spread, so the potential was always there for the ops to trend warmer.
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What a train wreck on the 00z GFS
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I was looking at that the other day and with models showing ENSO warming it could be a wet spring.
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12z Para GFS is Euroish with the 500mb evolution and resulting surface maps.
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Yep, la nina plus big -EPO seems to favor the full latitude trough.
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That is one of the things with this setup, the colder it gets the more suppressed it looks.
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The 00z Euro package was pretty encouraging for us in DFW area. The op had some changes that I liked at H5 and it appears to be the dry outlier with both the EPS mean and control being wetter. About 30 of the EPS members showed some variation of winter weather in DFW. Also, the Para GFS has been trending our way with 06z being the farthest north yet: I'm liking the trends but still not sold.
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Back in the game? Although, that kind of banding would rub me the wrong way
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It really held back that 2nd piece of energy. It feels like the 12z Euro and 18z GFS are at the two ends of the 500mb spectrum of possibilities for this event. Not based on anything scientific and just a hunch based off watching models the last couple of days.
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There is pretty good agreement b/w the 12z Euro EPS and GEFS on a mid month warm up. However, it looks like it could just be a temporary reload of the pattern before another big -EPO dump. Hopefully, this pattern will hold and the la nina background state will start to fade allowing for some more robust MJO action. Maybe better storm chances in February and March?
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Yep, next week is a long ways off.
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Bitter cold and no snow for DFW, maybe something for far East Texas along I20. Orientation of the trough is different than 00z and that looks to keep much of Texas dry and cold. Still lots of time and the setup keeps changing each run in the longer run. Only steady feature is the -EPO and cold. Feb '11 was a Nina snow event driven by an EPO dump, so it can happen.
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12z Euro says
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This is starting to peak my interest but still lots of unknowns, esp since mesoscale features play a big role in these setups.
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Models still showing an interesting pattern for next week. I just can't get too excited with what is being depicted but at least the cold looks locked in. Just need one of those disturbances to be tracked and timed right.
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Another variation of a system that will most likely never come to fruition...
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Both the Euro EPS and GEFS show this being a longer cold outbreak than the last one, lasting 5 days to a week before a real warm up. They also show our source region staying below normal in the longer range and that might be an indication that another dump is coming after any warm up.
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The 00z Euro package was one of the snowiest yet this winter for the northern half of Texas. However, as you noted, that is probably mostly freezing rain given the setup.
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Still there at 18z
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12z GFS with a bit of frozen for DFW next week:
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I'll never forget this, wasn't out chasing, but ended up way too close for comfort.
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Models seem to be coming into agreement on a bit more sustained cold blast b/w Jan 6 - 10th. Obviously, details still need to be worked out but a -EPO driven cold shot looks to be in the cards. The models have been pretty good at sniffing out these -EPO patterns in the longer range.