bubba hotep
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Everything posted by bubba hotep
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I'm getting crushed over here! I never had allergies in DC and then move here and Mt. Cedar hit me like a ton of bricks. This go round is horrible, the whole family is down with it. -
Things continue to look good for a soaking!
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Phase 2 during Nina looks suspiciously "McFarlandish"
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Big drop but still pretty high for December, a quick glance looks like a Top 10 reading since 1950. Does it stay positive and do we get back to +ENSO? That was a good rain combo for Texas in the recent past.
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Afternoon AFD from FWD indicates 2-5" of rain from this system with sone areas possibly requiring a flash flood watch. That should help get a jump start on topping off area lakes before the summer hits.
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Good thing for this current system or it would be a two week snooze fest. Hopefully, the Pacific jet will relax and another -EPO will pop. Also, models are trying to get the MJO going, it would be nice if the next cold spell had a connection to some tropical forcing.
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It looks like the 00z Euro and Para-GFS are farther east with the axis of heavy rain vs the GFS. Looks pretty wet for I35 and areas east.
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The January thaw is coming... ugh
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Comparison - NAM mostly crap vs GFS usually crap
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+PDO and cooling AMO... Wet spring on the way?
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I think you are right. The timing of the lead northern stream s/w, PVA and H5 cutoff were nearly perfect on the big ice storm runs. Those runs also had the SE ridge with a different orientation. The H5 cutoff has trended slower and the SE ridge a bit stronger with a different orientation. The models have been struggling with the SE ridge in the longer range going all the way back to hurricane season.
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7 to 8" of rain for areas east of I35 on the GFS!
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18z GFS is 4-6" or rain area wide. This feels more like a storm back from '15 when it seemed like we were always having multi rain events.
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The OP Euro is on the cold side of guidance in the 00z Euro package and has been the last few days.
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Factor in cold air bleeding in farther than modeled and this is borderline disastrous
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Looks to be trending towards the Euro with a big cutoff low.
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The 12z Para-GFS has got it as well. The 12z Euro EPS trended towards the operational, the 00z wasn't as supportive of a big system. About 1/5 of the EPS members make up a dry cluster but the rest have some version of the storm. Latest from FWD
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Yes, the SE ridge is a big problem and that is why we don't typically see big cutoff low snow storms during a Nina. Maybe the pattern starts to shift and we have a better look in February but for now the SE ridge probably wins that battle.
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We need some help but the Euro isn't too far off from a big winter storm. I'll gladly take a solid soaking but will be trying will a winter storm for N. Texas
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FWD has updated low temps. They keep DFW out of the single digits for now.
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Here is the 18z GFS. I'll be glad to have another system to track but am really interested in seeing if maybe this is the la nina pattern starting to break down some. We had legit storms earlier in the week, snow today and models look to keep things somewhat active. o
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Hard Freeze Warning issued for the northern counties
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My point forecast low is 13F and we are now down to 15F with clear skies and little wind.
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HRRR is up to something funny! Hard to tell from that image but it gets DFW to 7F and MBY to 3F...