Here is the D10 12z Euro EPS:
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That is basically a textbook example of the -5 day big -PNA loading pattern (basically the look 5 days before PNA would bottom out). This is Feb '89 3 days before a massive la nina cold snap in Texas (I don't remember why I didn't do -5 days but oh well, this looks a lot like the 12z Euro EPS at D12)
And then the Pacific jet retraction associated with that period:
Once again, this matches up pretty well with the 12z Euro EPS from today.
Here is the constructed MJO analog:
The thing to notice is the suppressed convection out near the Dateline in the D6-15 period and the Indian Ocean convection. How that convection progresses through the IO makes or breaks the upcoming period. MJO or faster progression and winter is over, slower progression and that teleconnects to big -EPO. Basically, everything is coming together for a big cold dump b/w Feb 7 - 10th +/-, if the MJO plays nice.