bubba hotep

What an epic bust for DFW... Looks like no rain at all.

Looks like 1st couple of attempts failed. You can see the orphaned anvils racing off to the SE on the newest sat images.

I tried to keep it going through the lame excuse for a winter that we had I've mostly been posting elsewhere lately or just randomly on Twitter. With that said, the cap is still in place but things do look a bit concerning, esp for hail. I hate hail! The CAMs started giving hints yesterday that the main threat might shift south towards DFW today. Then the overnight run of the NCAR ensembles seemed to confirm that. Now to see what happens.

That Atlantic sst configuration should result in another season of the MDR being a dead zone, if things don't flip back warm. I'll take +PDO/-AMO with ENSO transitioning to positive any summer!

What are you getting a masters in? I've been kicking around the thought of going back to finish my PhD.

These events have been popping up a lot so far in '17. Next Sunday to Tuesday could be another multi day event covering portions of this sub forum.

Ha! I do remember telling you in a site mail that we were going to score. I'm trying to make the best of this trip to New Mexico. There were some snow showers today but I had to climb up above 8k ft to find them but the views are always worth it. Even though the snow showers weren't much there was snow on the ground up higher

I'm still holding out hope for the last week of Feb into 1st of March. Was it two years ago that our whole winter was basically two weeks at the end of Feb? One small system then a nice winter storm. I'll have to go back and look.

Cool, I'll take a look tonight. I've kind of been kicking around '09 as an analog for the upcoming summer and then on into fall, esp. if the QBO switches. Winter '09/10 was Nino, weak +PDO, with a QBO switch during the summer. I'll have to do some more digging but Nino with -QBO has historically been a pretty good combo for Texas.

Maybe the PV will breakdown and help out? But my understanding, that probably won't contribute to blocking until later on in Feb or March? The MJO progression certainly supports a glancing blow of cold, if you buy that the atmospheric response to Nina is rapidly fading.

I also remember seeing some stuff posted showing SSW were less likely during +QBO or they occurred much later in the winter.

Euro weeklies continue the theme of basically saying winter is over. At least if looks active moving towards March, maybe an early and active svr wx season.

The more I look at the QBO the more it appears to be playing a major role in the pattern. The wet California look is very +ENSO like but is also common during +PDO/+QBO winters. However, most +PDO/+QBO winters are also +ENSO, so the -ENSO is a bit of an oddity. I'm thinking that the +PDO/+QBO helps accelerate the atmospheric response to warming ENSO? The current run of +PNA looks a lot more like last winter than this winter and it looks to relax but then come back strong.

The MJO is quickly propagating and the torch is on for Texas. Maybe it will swing all the way round back to Phase 1 - 3 and we see some cooler weather by the end of Feb or March but climo starts working against us fast by then.

Snow reaching the ground in San Angelo

Man desperate for winter sees 18z GFS and then books a cabian at Beavers Bend State Park in Oklahoma lol

Wow, model trends are ugly as it gets right now. Winter seriously might be over with for N. Texas.

Yea, I basically never look at the QBO but it does seem to fit in with the overall pattern so far this winter. It looks like Nov & Dec were both the most positive readings for those months ever in the data that I can find.

It was warm and sunny in DC today... what a wasted winter. I was really pulling for a big EC winter storm this week but instead it was cold rain and now beautiful weather. What a waste

Here is the D10 12z Euro EPS: th That is basically a textbook example of the -5 day big -PNA loading pattern (basically the look 5 days before PNA would bottom out). This is Feb '89 3 days before a massive la nina cold snap in Texas (I don't remember why I didn't do -5 days but oh well, this looks a lot like the 12z Euro EPS at D12) And then the Pacific jet retraction associated with that period: Once again, this matches up pretty well with the 12z Euro EPS from today. Here is the constructed MJO analog: The thing to notice is the suppressed convection out near the Dateline in the D6-15 period and the Indian Ocean convection. How that convection progresses through the IO makes or breaks the upcoming period. MJO or faster progression and winter is over, slower progression and that teleconnects to big -EPO. Basically, everything is coming together for a big cold dump b/w Feb 7 - 10th +/-, if the MJO plays nice.

That is probably a safe bet with SSW being the wild card. I think we see another big -EPO nina like cold shot around Feb 7 - 10th but how fast we warm up depends on the AO/NAO. If we can get some blocking, then maybe the first map holds but, if not, then the 2nd map is a good bet.

It doesn't get much uglier in the long range than the 12z GEFS...

That is interesting, I would guess that a lot rides on how fast the low frequency nina background state breaks down heading into the spring.

Not surprising, given the MJO looks phase 4ish for early Feb:

The models are building cold in Western Canada in the longer range but they are all showing a stubborn SW ridge and that look makes it hard to get cold down to Texas. If that ridge is persistent, then we might see all the cold slide off to the NE. Our chances of any type of winter weather look bleak through the 1st week of February.