bubba hotep

Thanks! I'm pulling for a big storm. We missed a storm last year but had plenty of snow and it was really cold.

That is really cool. How is the 1st week of Feb looking out there? I'll be in Santa Fe around the 6th for a few days.

The 12z Euro EPS says maybe there is some hope beyond Feb 7 +/- but things look dry and dull until then. Winter is rapidly slipping away from us.

Wow, very impressive storm!

Storms trying to fire out west of DFW

A combo of the hi-res CAMs point towards a decent chance of someone seeing storms east of I35 today. I've got my fingers crossed!

Yea, I was looking at some analogs today the +PDO has been the thing that has me tossing many years.

Texas has been lucky and really added those anomalies in the last 10 days or so. Florida has probably been the most "nina" and the SW being the least. Although, there are a few examples of N. Cali doing well and '10-11 was pretty good overall for Cali. Lots of variation with precipitation during ninas.

Overall, it's been pretty la nina like. Two big -EPO dumps but overall dry and warm. The recent big rains are probably the first signs in the sensible wx here locally that the pattern is breaking down. Holding out for one last big cold push. The 12z Euro EPS is really loading up our source region by D15. Just need it to unload.

I was just going to post that the Weeklies have been mostly trash. By D15, already significant difference bw the Weeklies and last nights Euro EPS. There is always the chance that zonal flow dominates and the cold that is building in WCAN in the long range just bleeds out east. However, the pattern so far this winter would suggest otherwise.

Euro weeklies have time of death about Feb 3rd... just ugly.

18z GFS is scary! Watch this be the one time it is right at 384 hrs

I've gotten a trace and 0.5" in the books, so better than last winter by a mile! The +PNA brings back memories of last winter. Maybe better moisture return helps get some storms this weekend but the next system after that looks dry. Then NW flow sets in. How far into February do we go before recovering? Climo starts working against us fast!

Well... That is unfortunate. I hate the +PNA

Where are the Mods? Clean this up!

WTF?

I missed it in real time, but see it now going back through the frames.

Watching radar, it looks like the flood threat might be realized across portions of the DFW area. From about an hour ago: MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0019 NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 712 PM EST SUN JAN 15 2017 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TX...NORTH TX CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE VALID 160011Z - 160526Z SUMMARY...TWO ROUNDS OF CONVECTION IN RAPID SUCCESSION WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY EFFICIENT HEAVY RAIN ENVIRONMENT MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING IN URBAN OR OTHER PARTICULARLY SENSITIVE AREAS. DISCUSSION...THE ENVIRONMENT WAS PERHAPS FOREMOST A SEVERE WEATHER ENVIRONMENT...BUT THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL SHOULD NOT BE UNDERESTIMATED AS SOUTH TO NORTH TRAINING BANDS OF CONVECTION WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A QUASI-LINEAR SYSTEM. LATE AFTERNOON HRRR RUNS HAD BEEN CONSISTENT AT PRODUCING ISOLATED TOTALS BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES STRADDLING THE WARM FRONT / INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR THROUGH 05Z. AT 00Z...THE INITIAL STORMS WERE TRAINING FROM ABOUT 190 DEGREES...FOLLOWING THE MEAN LOWER TO MID LEVEL WINDS...AS BROAD SCALE LIFT INCREASED AHEAD OF THE EJECTING NEGATIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL WAVE. THERE WAS A CORRESPONDING SUBTLE BACKING OF LOW LEVEL FLOW OBSERVED PER RAP SOUNDINGS AND VAD WIND PROFILES FROM FWS/GRK CONTRIBUTING TO THE TRAINING CELL MOTIONS. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN...ONE-HOUR RAINFALL ESTIMATES FROM KFWS HAD INCREASED ABOVE 2 INCHES WEST OF WACO AND HILLSBORO. THIS WAS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE RADAR AND AWAY FROM MELTING LAYER ISSUES...SUCH THAT THERE IS LITTLE REASON TO DOUBT THE ESTIMATES. PW VALUES WERE INCREASING TOWARD 1.4 INCHES IN THIS REGION AND OTHER FACTORS SUCH AS INCREASING DEEP LAYER ASCENT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX WILL FAVOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION DESPITE SOME SMALL HAIL. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE SOMEWHAT HIGH...BUT GIVEN THE RECENT RADAR QPE TRENDS THE 3-HOUR FFG VALUES MAY BE EXCEEDED WHEREVER THE S-N BANDS SET UP IN ADVANCE OF THE SQUALL LINE. WITH THE WARM FRONT ALSO BISECTING THE DALLAS / FORT WORTH METROPLEX...URBAN RUNOFF ISSUES MAY BECOME A FACTOR AS WELL. BURKE ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SHV... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...

These storms are very energetic, lots of lightning even with these weaker cells.

Looks like lack of low level instability could keep this from being a more significant event. Think SPC might upgrade the DFW area later today, if there are any signs of increasing low level instability.

Hide your eyes!

What kind of skill does the JAMSTEC have?

At least the pattern looks to stay active over the next couple of weeks. Not a lot of cold but maybe a system gets timed up just right.

Currently 57 in Denton and 77 in Dallas. Front should be moving through MBY any minute now.

My allergies are still going strong for a 3rd day, worst attack ever! Hopefully, the wind shift this afternoon will be the 1st step to relief and then some decent rains.