bubba hotep

Now warnings for most of the northern burbs but the eastern edge seems to be weakening a bit

SPC not thinking a watch will be necessary MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1225 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0337 PM CDT SAT JUL 09 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 092037Z - 092130Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT SUMMARY...STRONG WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE LEADING EDGE OF THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX AS IT PROPAGATES INTO THE METROPLEX. DISCUSSION...SLOWLY ORGANIZING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS MIGRATED SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER WITH LEADING EDGE OF HIGHER REFLECTIVITY INTO THE NORTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE METROPLEX. THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS GENERATED GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40KT NEAR THE RED RIVER AND NEAR-SEVERE WIND GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED AS HIGH PW CONVECTION PROPAGATES WEST OF SOUTH INTO THE METRO. WHILE SFC TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS ARE NOT THAT GREAT...WATER-LOADING DOWNDRAFTS SHOULD ENCOURAGE STRONG WINDS. ..DARROW/THOMPSON.. 07/09/2016

Radar and sat looking good for storms to maintain into DFW this afternoon

Can see some really nice cloud tops on those southern Oklahoma cells, they look to be maintaining or strengthening. That should allow them to develop a cold pool and start pushing southward towards DFW. HRRR seems to support this, so maybe some storms later?

Marginal expanded southward to include northern half of DFW for this afternoon

Even more of a chance?

So you are saying there is a chance?

The models have been too warm and too dry in the medium to longer range but eventually they will be right (it's summer in DFW after all ). The Euro EPS has been pretty constant with showing the first 100's for DFW around mid-month but even that isn't a slam dunk, esp. if we keep getting these sneaky rain events. Like you said, the ridge keeps under performing and hasn't been able to beat back the low level moisture. I wouldn't be surprised to see afternoon storms pop again over the next week or so.

DFW ended up with 3.20" yesterday smashing the daily record and locking in an above avg monthly total.

Cool pic! The 4th of July went out with a bang for sure after working hard all day. We had that storm that came through just after midnight to get the day started, then storms first thing in the morning and then last night. All three were super energetic with lots of lightning.

A couple of random cells popping in the DFW area now, this one isn't too far away ETA: It is setting off some big time fireworks now!

Keep moving just north of east but would like to see some expansion in coverage

If those randomly spastic moving cells can form a cold pool and start pushing east then we might get something with this setup

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1134 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0521 PM CDT MON JUL 04 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NWRN/N-CNTRL TX AND VICINITY CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 042221Z - 050045Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT SUMMARY...ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NWRN/N-CNTRL TX AND VICINITY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF SVR WIND/HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THIS CONVECTION. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD LINGER WELL INTO THE EVENING. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...THOUGH PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT WW ISSUANCE WILL BE UNLIKELY. DISCUSSION...STRONG DIABATIC HEATING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S -- EXCEPT IN THE 60S ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS -- HAS FOSTERED VERY STRONG DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON. SFC ANALYSIS AND VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY IMPLY AN ASSORTMENT OF DIFFUSE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND CONFLUENCE AXES ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH A FRONTOLYTIC SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY INVOF THE RED RIVER...SERVING AS FOCI FOR INCIPIENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS MLCINH HAS MOSTLY ERODED. TSTMS SHOULD SPREAD SEWD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL DEARTH OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED. REGARDLESS...THE COMBINATION OF THE AMPLE INSTABILITY AND A ZONE OF MODESTLY ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW SUPPORTING AROUND 30-45 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SUGGESTS THAT A FEW SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS MAY OCCUR WITH LOCALLY SVR WIND/HAIL. LARGE DCAPE WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY CONSOLIDATING COLD POOLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FOCUSED CORRIDORS OF LOCALLY SVR WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY IF UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH WERE TO FOSTER CONVECTIVE CLUSTERING. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND THE ATTENDANT SVR RISK MAY REMAIN TOO ISOLATED FOR WW ISSUANCE. HOWEVER...IF A MORE ORGANIZED...FORWARD-PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WERE TO BECOME EVIDENT WITH GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SVR WINDS...WW PROBABILITIES COULD INCREASE. THIS WILL BE HIGHLY CONTINGENT ON STORM-SCALE PROCESSES WITH LIMITED PREDICTABILITY AT THE PRESENT TIME...THOUGH THE AREA FROM THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS TO N-CNTRL TX W OF THE DFW METROPLEX COULD BE A FAVORED AREA FOR CONVECTIVE-CLUSTER DEVELOPMENT. ..COHEN/GUYER.. 07/04/2016

Cells starting to pop out near Wichita Falls again this afternoon, maybe they can ride the gradient towards DFW?

Record daily rainfall event at DFW this morning with more rain possible this afternoon. Could DFW end up with a months worth of rain in one day?

Also, seeing reports of wind damage in a few areas with gusts up towards 70 mph

Wow, just insane lightning this morning!

We got a decent hit right after midnight and look to pick up some more with this current batch of cells.

Legit early morning light show

Storms moving into western areas but not holding out hope out here in the far east. How many times this season have storms died west of I35? Far too often it seems like.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1128 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0749 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN OK...NW TX...FAR SW MO...FAR NW AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 319...320... VALID 040049Z - 040215Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 319...320...CONTINUES. SUMMARY...SVR THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS SVR WATCHES 319 AND 320. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT BUT SOME ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST UPSCALE GROWTH INTO MORE OF A LINEAR CONVECTIVE HAS OCCURRED ACROSS CNTRL OK...WITH COLD POOLS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION AMALGAMATING AS THEY MOVE SEWD. MID-LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK /00Z OUN SOUNDING SAMPLED AROUND 20 KT AT 700 MB/ SO THE CHANCES OF A WELL-DEVELOPED...FAST-MOVING LINE ARE VERY LOW...ALTHOUGH SOME LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHERE THE LINE MERGES WITH PRECEDING STORMS AND/OR PRECIP LOADING LEADS TO A STRONG DOWNDRAFT. INTERSECTING OUTFLOWS ALONG THE SRN END OF THE LINE WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...WITH A MORE EAST-WEST ORIENTATION ANTICIPATED. FORWARD SPEED OF THE LINE HERE WILL BE LESS THAN AREAS N AND E...PARTICULARLY AS THE LLJ INCREASES...BUT A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. SOME BACKBUILDING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THIS PORTION OF THE LINE...WITH THE RESULTING STORMS LASTING SEVERAL MORE HOURS. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION UPSTREAM OVER NW TX MAKES THIS SCENARIO UNLIKELY WITH TSTMS EXPECTED TO WANE WITH DAYTIME HEATING. FARTHER S /ACROSS NW TX/...MORE CELLULAR CONVECTIVE CONTINUES...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE STORMS ARE OUTFLOW DOMINANT WITH AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THAT WOULD THEN LIKELY TRACK SEWD TOWARDS THE METROPLEX. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE MAIN THREAT...ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATE LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE. ..MOSIER.. 07/04/2016

Updated D1 to account for trends this evening.

Storms are starting to really get going