bubba hotep

On 10/21/2016 at 11:10 PM, Quixotic1 said:

I'm starting to get on board with those who're going with a much warmer than normal winter.  I hate to be a gloomy gus, but right now DFW is on pace to shatter the record for warmest October.  We are at 75.3 for the month.  The next on the list is 1938 at 73.1.  Looking at other anomalously warm Octobers and you see nothing but dog winters.  last year's El Niño really did a job on us last year.  I fear the hangover might carry over into this one as well.  

After this brief cool down, October is going to end torching with above normal temps looking locked in until November. Then  the start of November looks bad as well but things might finally start to shift to a cooler patter by mid-November. However, we played that game all last winter with winter always just being two weeks away. 

9 hours ago, bubba hotep said:

Will the storms make it to DFW tonight?

 

Score! We ended up with some really nice storms that put on a decent light show this morning. 

Will the storms make it to DFW tonight?

Can anyone pick out DFW?

Well that was a major bust 

For days, models and forecast showed majority of rain north of I20 and west of I35. Verification... Looks like a shut out with everything staying south of Dallas. 

The trend on the last couple of systems has been for the rainfall to end up farther east and south than expected. We haven't seen anything crazy but are sitting at nearly an inch of rain so far this month IMBY. Looks like another chance at the end of this week.

Looks like another shot of rain for DFW at the end of the week and then maybe the first truly legit cold push around the 20th or so.

On 9/28/2016 at 11:17 AM, aggiegeog said:

We made it down to the low 50s this morning, it felt great.

Yes, it felt great out this morning on my run!

On 9/23/2016 at 1:17 PM, bubba hotep said:

Bawwww ha ha ha ha! Ugh.... Euro appears to be folding to GFS with little to no rain for areas east of I35 in DFW this weekend.

I'll be honest and admit that I haven't looked at the models for DFW since Friday and was shocked by the soaking we got today!

Bawwww ha ha ha ha! Ugh.... Euro appears to be folding to GFS with little to no rain for areas east of I35 in DFW this weekend.

Well, that was fun while it lasted! The Euro is back to cutting off an ULL and retrograding it to the SW. DFW still picks up some rain but East Texas is nearly shutout. This month has basically been the opposite of Climo with Western Texas picking up all the rain and Eastern Texas dry.

11 hours ago, aggiegeog said:

Cool weather and rain is becoming increasingly likely early next week. Wonder if we can get a day with a sub 70 high. Our first sub 60 lows look likely.

For NM, the ski resorts could see snow with this weekend's storm down to base level (8-9,000 feet).

Angel Fire, NM always amazes me with its temperature swings. On Monday, they fell to 23 around 5 am and the temp rose to a high of 79 in the afternoon. 

Looks like we will finally get a legit push of cooler air and some widespread rain. FWD doing their best to jinx us in the DFW area

Quote

 Thereafter, it looks
like a few successive shots of cooler air will be possible as
northwest flow across the midwest results in a few frontal
passages southward next week. It certainly looks like fall will
finally arrive!

The last couple of Euro runs have trended a bit more progressive with this next system and away from leaving the cutoff over the SW. That also trends towards a much wetter look for DFW and East Texas over the next week. 

Nice little storm this evening

100 today at DFW... Just filthy out there. And oh, look at that, another weekend cool shot is fading as we move closer. I see plenty of analogs that suggest we could be below avg temp wise this winter but it's hard to buy that right now.

We ended up with a decent soaking this morning and probably picked up 1/2" of rain.

Maybe? Please? Anything!!

The models are basically always wrong at D10 when showing something interesting for DFW but this would be fun in January or February!

Looks like a few nice days here in DFW before things turn wet again:

Then it is time to start sifting the tea leaves and looking for our first real cold shot of the season! 

Chances for weak La Nina or neutral conditions this winter continue to increase. That is a much better look for us here in Texas vs. mod or strong La Nina.

Each run of the Euro Weeklies creeps the snow farther to the south with all of Colorado and northern New Mexico locked in by the end of this latest run. Also, the control has snow in the Panhandle of Texas! Something like 40% of all Septembers see 100+ at DFW but the latest run doesn't even have a single member over 100 from here on out. This jives with the Euro EPS and GEFS, which both are hinting a series of cold fronts moving down. 

Snow!!!!!!!!

Found myself down in Louisiana for the flood, so haven't been paying too much attention to DFW weather the past week. However, the Euro weeklies are solid gold for DFW. Nearly 7" of rain by mid-September and no more 100s. 

It's been a long time coming and I am ready!

Someone lock this 12z Euro run up! 9" for parts of DFW over the next week