bubba hotep

Watch possibly coming for N. Texas 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1126
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0524 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN N TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 032224Z - 040100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR SOME INCREASE IN THE
SVR-TSTM RISK LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE ANTICIPATED COVERAGE OF SVR
TSTMS...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A SVR TSTM WATCH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...A SFC BOUNDARY RUNNING APPROXIMATELY ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR FROM OK EXTENDS SWWD TO THE TX S PLAINS. A
SFC TROUGH TO THE E IS ANALYZED FROM CNTRL OK SWWD TO THE PERMIAN
BASIN OF SWRN TX. MESOSCALE ASCENT ALONG THE SFC TROUGH...COUPLED
WITH DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER CIRCULATIONS IN ITS VICINITY ENCOURAGED BY
SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 101F...MAY CONTINUE TO
FACILITATE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

LOW-LEVEL FLOW/CONVERGENCE ARE RELATIVELY WEAK...HOWEVER...AND THIS
DETRACTS OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN A WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE RISK
EVOLVING. NEVERTHELESS...WARM-SECTOR BUOYANCY IS ROBUST -- WITH
MLCAPE AROUND 2000-3000 J/KG THAT MAY ENCOURAGE ROBUST UPDRAFTS.
WHILE MID-LEVEL FLOW IS RATHER MODEST...AROUND 20-25 KT OF EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS TO
EVOLVE. DCAPE AROUND 1000-1700 J/KG WILL PROMOTE STRONG DOWNDRAFT
ACCELERATIONS AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR LOCALIZED CONSOLIDATING COLD
POOLS...WITH ISOLATED TO PERHAPS WIDELY SCATTERED SVR WIND GUSTS.
THIS WOULD ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE IF LOCALIZED COLD-POOL
AMALGAMATION/UPSCALE GROWTH WERE TO OCCUR.

GIVEN RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER 70S
DEWPOINTS...MLCINH GAINS WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR FOLLOWING DUSK. AS
SUCH...SOME SVR RISK MAY EXIST...AND PERHAPS INCREASE...DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AS A MODEST NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY-LAYER SPEED MAX BECOMES
ESTABLISHED. AS SUCH...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION OF THE SVR RISK AND PROSPECTS FOR WW
ISSUANCE. REGARDLESS...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.

Storms starting to fire up near Wichita Falls, TX with tornado warned storms up in Oklahoma. Can the northern portions of DFW get lucky later on?

Maybe, just maybe tomorrow?

It seems so, as a strong CCKW/MJO pulse appears to be headed for the Atlantic past week 1

 

twc_globe_mjo_vp200.png

 

(Credit: http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/mjo.html)

The models seem to be struggling some now that the CCKW appears to be separating from the MJO. The EPAC is obviously going to get a nice bump in activity out of this but hard to say for the other side. Conditions don't appear to be favorable for anything in the Gulf & Western Caribbean but it will be interesting to see if that changes as the CCKW moves across.  

Here in DFW, we seem to be slipping into the annual "summer sucks" pattern. Maybe a storm for some tomorrow afternoon or Monday?

I did get too see a couple of storms in DC this week:

Is this pic tweeted out by Emily Sutton real? Pretty crazy!

another view from @DoughertyNews9

The Drama!

Duke St just a couple of miles N of Old Town - Never thought I would see it 100% void of vehicles!

The courtyard down the street from our house