eduggs

Interesting 0z runs so far. CMC, ICON, and GFS with markedly different outcomes, particularly after 132hrs of so. All three appear more threatening to me than 12z or 18z. And the GFS, despite showing mostly rain for coastal areas, is so amplified that it gets sub 546dm 500mb heights to northern Florida. It also develops a slightly negative trof tilt and shifts the 500mb low center a bit further south. Not much help this run on the GFS, but it's workable.

There are at least 3 shortwaves directly involved with the evolution of the Feb 11 event. The lead wave is a little better on the 18z vs 12z - it's a little further south and squashed. The problem is that the 2nd wave is sharper/stronger, and the end result locally is the same or worse as 12z. If we could combine features from the 12z and 18z, we'd be closer to something wintry IMO.

The other tiny positive from 12z is that the 500mb mean on the GEFS is probably slightly more supportive of a coastal low. Trying to maintain a shred of hope for the sake of tracking enthusiasm... 

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Indeed.  Any hope for wintry weather probably won't happen until the last week of the month and beyond.

 

I'm actually not expecting much of any snow for the rest of this winter outside the interior hills. I think some people forget how early winter typically ends along the coastal plain.

I feel like we've seen this Feb 11th storm already several times this year. A good soaking with a little convection possible.

55 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Seems like interior NNJ into interior SE NY has been in a pretty bad screw zone for a while…can extend that into W CT

Yup. With the climatological elevational and latitudinal dependence on top of it. But every 5-10 years this interior coastal plain area gets a payoff with a big coastal. We're just in a rough patch right now. I've lived in MA, NY, NJ... and the only 20" storm I've seen was in NJ. But also by far the worst winter.

52 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Definitely a latitudinal winter this time.  However, there were places in Morris County that had more snow in Feb 2021 than my Maine foothills locale had for that whole winter.

Feb 1, 2021 was an excellent storm for northwestern NJ. And for sure the north country has endured some very lean years. The problem for my local region is that was the last decent storm to date. Some of the highest elevations of northern Morris County have had a few 3"+ events since then, but they were very localized.

The foreseeable future looks like basically more of what we've already seen a lot of this winter. Winter confined to far NE regions, particularly Maine. Spring-like to the SW. 735 days since I've observed moderate snow looks to continue...

Right now it looks like more of the same for next weekend. SLP into the Lakes inundates the northeast with warmth at all levels. Shortwave energy further south lags behind and dampens leading to weak and late transfer and more of a frontal passage scenario for any trailing impulse. Snow is confined to northern regions, particularly the far NE.

Variability of ensembles giving me some pause, but the OP trend looks pretty clear to me. We really needed that initial s/w to hit a wall and get shunted east, pushing the baroclinic zone further southeast. That does not appear to be happening. So unless the follow-up wave digs to the GOM, we're in trouble.

25 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

it doesn't look negative yet, so it will track based on high pressure and confluence to its n and e?

150hr ensemble means rarely show trofs with negative tilts owing to the blending effect on variable individual members. Trofs will sharpen on the means as you move closer in lead time. SLP will form in the area of strongest upper level divergence. But this region often doesn't match the SLP position of the mean due to the same blending effect.

4 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The problem I have pointed out to many though hoping for the shutout or breaking of the NYC record in our subforum though is that due to inevitable wavelength change and the fact the storm track has been active its unlikely we don't end up with 1-2 events that may even push us over double digits in the end.  I'd feel more confident if we were parched like we were in 01-02 or 11-12 but there is too much activity to likely get 8 more weeks of misses 

8 more weeks of winter in NYC? Annual average March snowfall in NYC is meager. After mid March it's downright uncommon. The immediate urban corridor has about 2 weeks of peak winter climo left - that's it. You can extend that to 4 weeks, including late season climo and maybe 6 weeks of fringe season.

This sudden obsession with surface temperatures reminds me of weather enthusiast discussions in Europe, particular England. When there's not much else of interest to discuss, this is what happens.

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

I'm focused on your op GFS guidance for the 11th-12th and 19th-20th... Hmmm...mighr be something going on, at least I84.  It's Feb .    If USA and Canadian guidance at 12 hours can be in error by 4F, who is to know for sure on what the next two weekends bring.  

The event on the 11th looks like a likely east coast winter storm. All three major sets of ensembles have a bit of a different take on the event. I'm not feeling good about it locally. The preceding s/w on Fri really pumps the heights and temps out ahead of the amplifying trof. That continues a seasonal trend of making things very difficult for us as winter weather enthusiasts. We're left hoping for a perfect synoptic evolution.

Best threat in a while however.

1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

If you want a chance for snow you'll take that anomaly map in February or March every time...December definitely not unless you're across the interior but that is once again nowhere near a shutout setup

Monthly temperature averages are not very useful for local snowfall prediction because storm and temperature evolution are so variable on daily time steps. But the map does support a general continuation of the mean storm track being to our west.

Nice to see Central Park slant-sticked its way to a local jackpot! Congrats.

56 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Nyc futility continues possibly. They were in line for first minor accumulation. 

I think NYC has a shot at getting shut out for the whole winter. They'll probably record a coating tonight or even Friday with the arctic front. But otherwise the next 2 weeks look bleak. And after mid-Feb, even normal climo starts to become locally hostile for snow.

As bad as it's been in SNE, it's been even worse to the SW.

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Coating to a half inch here is a good call 

I'm going T - coating

But I really hope some surprise banding sets up to drop an inch in a few spots. We've got some rare near freezing surface temps and don't wanna waste them.

Maybe the City finally gets a dusting with the arctic front on Friday.

1 hour ago, UnitedWx said:

Whats interesting is this feels no where near as warm as 88/89. Must be averages vs super warm days. We had many days that month working on new house rough ins wearing t shirts. I haven't felt that this month 

We're also 35 years older and feel the cold more. If I were 17 and being active outside in 50 degree weather I'd be wearing a t-shirt too.

Pretty big jump north on the 0z NAM. But precipitation still doesn't get north of MD. Not surprised to see the NAM make noticeable shifts, particularly after 48 hours. It's more in line with the GFS now.

It would take a significant change in timing of the waves to get this much further north. The southern wave has to be further out ahead of the suppressive northern stream. These kinds of miracles don't seem to happen in the modern modeling regime. Credit to model development.

7 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

UKMET just came north with the wednesday morning light snow. Gives most of the area about an inch. So at least the RGEM isn't completely alone, and the fact that the RGEM has been the best model this winter gives us some hope. 

I really hope it happens as it would be nice to wake up to a little snow on the ground even though most of us will be sleeping during any falling flakes.

Temps should be at or slightly below freezing during that period, which is a plus. On the negative side, models show only weak lift in the snow growth zone. The UK, ICON, and RGEM have a little snow, although the RGEM has been shifting southward for a few runs. The EC and GFS, as well as their ensembles, are suspiciously dry.

0z GEFS and 18z EPS are essentially dry through next weekend. Hard to go against it. With tightly spaced Isohypses, fast flow, and an extremely unfavorable and suppressive orientation of the approaching PV, there doesn't seem to be much wiggle room to allow precipitation. 

I guess predawn Wed still offers some fleeting hope of a coating. But this marks yet another week of virtually nothing to track.

55 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

FV3 Hi-Res would let people who haven’t yet seen flakes see flakes… maybe forecasts a GFS shift towards a lil something

Gonna have to stay up late.

The 18z GFS was the first model run I've seen in a while to get a little piece of northern stream energy to a neutral position with respect to the "southern stream" wave. In general, if a wave closer to the equator is downstream (i.e., to the east in N. Hemisphere) of another wave closer to the pole, the longwave trof will amplify. Conversely, if the poleward wave is downstream of the other wave, it will dampen (i.e., suppression).

So any shortwave, even a tiny packet of vorticity that gets to a neutral or ideally upstream position with respect to the southern wave will serve to amplify the waves and raise heights downstream. The GFS moved a little bit in this direction for the Thurs-Fri "event", which resulted in some precipitation into the mid-Atl. The 18z RGEM also looks to have moved slightly in this direction with a weak wave over Kansas at 84hr slightly more aligned with the southern stream wave near the TX panhandle. This is longshot territory, but still trackable IMO.

19 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

0z RGEM has steady light accumulating snow tuesday night into wednesday morning. That gets my attention since RGEM has been so good.

Overall the models have been all over the place with these little waves for mid to late week. Impossible to predict right now, but it seems as if we have a shot of seeing something in the tuesday to friday time period when we have cold air in place. 

Weak waves in fast flow are difficult to model. The 0z RGEM might break the snowless streak for NYC, but overall looks very minor. Rest of the period looks suppressed on all guidance.

1 hour ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Still work to do, but this is a decent improvement on the cocktail hour GFS.  

 

Barely better, and not remotely close. The GEFS also lost a few outliers that were bringing precipitation to the northern mid-Atl. and SNE. The mean was a hair better than 12z, however for that time period.