eduggs

1 hour ago, lee59 said:

Lee Goldberg indicating it is starting to look like a pattern change the end of the month. Snow chances will probably increase.

If this keeps being said, eventually it's bound to be true. But right now it's just wishing and hoping because nobody has a crystal ball.

Also, right now we have a high amplitude, east coast trof with significant 850mb and 500mb temperature and height anomalies moving through the southeast and mid-Atlantic. How does that fit with our current "pattern?"

If you loop the 500mb heights on the any of the mid-range models, places like Atlanta are constantly at 570dm or above. Typically for us to get a good wintry event, regions in the southeast like Atlanta, Knoxville, and Charlotte need to get down into the 540-546 range. Otherwise the primary storm track will be north or west of us.

The only time that region is modeled to get into that 500mb height range over the next 7 days is actually right now, which is why this weekend was the closest we will likely get to a snowstorm in a while, and why parts of SEMA and coastal ME might get some snow this weekend.

For the late week event next week, the EC is doing what we've come to expect with a SLP into the Lakes and 570dm heights surging towards us.

But as far as I can tell, it is the only hold out amongst the midrange models in terms of showing some wintry precipitation nearby. 

I'd take those OP GFS and CMC runs through the end of the mid-range. Couple of wintry threats there. Ensembles say these likely end up weak, dampened waves or cutters. Let's see if the EC shows any movement in the same direction.

58 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Any winter where we have a raging zonal Pacific jet will be a failure for us. The whole continent is flooded with maritime air, it encourages the SE Ridge and any threat is ruined because it will want to cut way west of us. We need major changes- for the PV to reestablish on our side of the pole, the PNA to amplify and some blocking to appear which would hopefully make a dent in the corresponding raging SE Ridge. I see some hope in the longer range but nothing I would jump on. Quite likely Jan is ruined and now we’re hoping for Feb to improve. Feb in a Nina is usually horrible in the East (although I know what’s going on resembles a Nino in some ways). 

We could have gotten a coastal snowstorm this weekend if the multiple shortwaves interacted just a little differently. The trof axis has good amplitude and orientation and there is sufficient cold air available. Snowstorms are local phenomena that depend on nuances in features and their evolution. Yes the background airmass and longwave jet structure is important, but it's usually the minor details that deliver snow. 

50 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Not yet because of the Nino like PAC jet extension. Once it retracts and the MJO (Phases 3-6) convection starts constructively interfering with the La Niña come the start of February you should see a climo canonical Niña pattern take over

I think you attribute too much causal certainty to ENSO, MJO, and other climate indices. Most of the correlations are weak, and the indices themselves, broadly defined. There is a lot of randomness in weather outcomes.

It amazes me that people keep looking at ensemble charts out beyond 14 days. They have effectively no skill. We have seen it over and over, yet people don't learn the lesson. If there's light way out there at the end of tunnel, you won't see it coming until it's much closer. Often it will just surprise you in the mid-range.

41 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

This reminds me of many of the winters in this region back in the 70s, 80s, and 90’s.  Yes there were a few good ones however much of the time was like this with AN temps and rainers.  With the pattern this year featuring the raging PAC jet you really can’t go wrong with warm in your outlook.

I don't remember any winters like this. Back then there were low snow years and warm periods, but the temperature still went below freezing regularly. This winter is not comparable in that regard. 

On 12/15/2022 at 9:37 PM, eduggs said:

NYC: 7"

EWR: 13"

MMU: 23"

ISP: 29"

SWF: 32"

I'm feeling uneasy about my predictions. We'll probably need a big event to get close.

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

When the entire lower 48 and most of Canada is flooded with Pacific air, other than a weak ass retreating high over Atlantic Canada there is no cold air . It’s a record warm pattern that will not change for at minimum another 10-14 days. Until western and central Canada are cold .. nothing is going to happen 

You can squirm and twist all you want. But facts are facts.

26 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Just seems pointless until there’s any cold air available 

Not correct that there's no cold available. <10C 850mb temps to the Carolinas and sub 530dm heights at 500mb throughout the mid-Atl on Saturday. 

We even have a very high amplitude longwave trof with a nearly perfect alignment and orientation. Our problem is in the nuances of the height structure... the evolution of the shortwave interactions.

Snow vs. no-snow outside the mountains is almost always due to the nuances of mid- and upper-level features.

7 minutes ago, HailMan06 said:

Lol just looking at the thickness lines you can tell the storm is warm-core.

If you loop like 168hr - 216hr on the 12z GFS North Atlantic view it looks like two hurricanes moving westward in September. I don't remember seeing such well defined mid-level lows in that region during the winter, but I don't usually look for it either.

10 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Nothing is trending towards a colder solution.  They are actually all trending even warmer still.  This is the storm we were tracking 72 hours ago on that CMC run

 

The primary system is toast.  Gone.  Forget it.  Its going to cut.  What guidance is trending towards now is the idea that a secondary piece of energy is going to dive in the back side and develop a new low along the coast after the front from the original system catches up...which would open the door some to a crazy scenario where the mid atlantic COULD get snow if everything went absolutely perfectly.  Yea I know that is not how we normally roll but once in a blue moon something like that can happen and why not end this streak that way.  But to say its trending colder is a gross misrepresentation of the situation.  

Not trending colder per say. Clearly the initial phase and SLP track into Ontario has trended sharper with a quicker scouring of antecedent cold. But one thing that's changed from 3+ days ago is that there's a fresh cold air source to the west that isn't being immediately pushed out by the next wave. Days ago a modeled negatively tilted ULL was pinching off and being separated from the longwave flow, resulting in a complete emptying of subfreezing surface temps east of the Mississippi. With CAA behind the "front," at least there's a longshot chance of developing a new SLP on what's left of the baroclinic zone that could potentially produce snow somewhere along the east coast.

41 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

Tonight is a low of 22.  Plenty of cold but no precip.  Tomorrow night’s low is 28, but no precip again.  Cold isn’t my problem at the moment.
 

Radiational cooling conditions are decent tonight. It's just fake (i.e., low level) cold. Check a sounding. The airmass is warm for January.

Every major midrange model - UK, CMC, EC, ICON, NAVGEM - with the GFS as the only exception, gets snow into or near our region on Saturday. That's 5 days out.

It's a tenuous setup for sure, but it's something. I haven't looked at individual ensemble members, but I'd suspect there are a few that drop significant snow for our region.

On 1/8/2023 at 5:19 PM, eduggs said:

The 12z CMC shows the coastal low that I believe we need to deliver a miracle for us. It grazes Cape Cod at day 6 and then dumps heavy snow on downeast Maine.

On 1/8/2023 at 5:07 PM, eduggs said:

In the ideal scenario, a 3rd follow up wave (upper Midwest at day 4) phases with the southern wave, dropping into the backside of the trof, leading to amplification and negative tilting. If we can avoid an initial wave phasing and resulting SLP into western NY, there may be enough cold air relatively close by to tap into a coastal low. We would still need the trof to take on a significant negative tilt, without pinching off the cold air source, to wrap some moisture back into the cold air.

I believe a few ensemble members have shown something like this. But the UK, EC, and GFS are pretty far off.

The 12z CMC, EC, UK, and 18z ICON all get snow to our area or near NW this weekend in the manner I speculated about yesterday. Unfortunately the scenario is less than ideal because the early, initial phase and SLP to Ontario has pushed the initial antecedent cold air far to the NE and we are left waiting for fresh cold to seep in from the W.

IMO prospects for some snow have increased since yesterday. I do not believe this scenario is hopeless, although we would need a lot to go right. Inland, elevated areas would be favored and significant snow is unlikely. It would be nice to get the GFS on board, but it trended away at 18z.

The 18z GFS gets a vortmax and 546dm 500mb heights to the FL panhandle with a slightly negatively tilted trof. That should mean potential. The problem is how we get there and the residual 500mb low center in Ontario. 

At least the 18z ICON and RGEM don't match the GFS with the clean phase and SLP into Ontario.

The 18z GFS continues with a northern stream shortwave that is too sharp and too closely spaced with the southern wave, which allows wave phasing and a SLP into southern Ontario. This scours the cold air, shunts the baroclinicity offshore behind the front, and taints the 500mb height structure and any follow up coastal.

The 12z CMC shows the coastal low that I believe we need to deliver a miracle for us. It grazes Cape Cod at day 6 and then dumps heavy snow on downeast Maine.

I think the ICON is somewhat close to a longshot scenario that could bring snow to our area or the NW fringes.  At day 3 there is one shortwave over CO and another over MN. If they stay longitudinally separated far enough, the more northerly wave can interfere somewhat with the maturation of the southerly wave and shunt any surface reflection further southeast. Wave amplification typically occurs when a shortwave is on the downstream side of a longwave trof.

In the ideal scenario, a 3rd follow up wave (upper Midwest at day 4) phases with the southern wave, dropping into the backside of the trof, leading to amplification and negative tilting. If we can avoid an initial wave phasing and resulting SLP into western NY, there may be enough cold air relatively close by to tap into a coastal low. We would still need the trof to take on a significant negative tilt, without pinching off the cold air source, to wrap some moisture back into the cold air.

I believe a few ensemble members have shown something like this. But the UK, EC, and GFS are pretty far off.

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Next weekend looks chilly after the lakes storm 

Yeah the recent model cycles show it cooling down for a day or two around the weekend. But if there are clouds behind the ULL or if guidance switches back to the pinched off ULL that might change. I think it could be a close call for the urban centers.

6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

 

This is what's happening... some just want some snow, others start saying its not impressive.

Every possible event going forward is just going to be a bloodbath, .

I'm not rooting against NNE snow. And we would probably all take whatever snow we can get. I just don't agree with the interpretation that the 12z EC is a good snow outcome for anybody outside of Maine considering the potential setup and time of year.

6" in the mountains on a clown map in mid January is not impressive, especially with a high amplitude trof and copious moisture available. Plus many south of NNE flip to heavy rain anyway.

EC and UK are both hideous for anybody outside of Northern Maine.