eduggs

On 2/3/2025 at 2:16 PM, eduggs said:

On 2/3/2025 at 2:11 PM, Allsnow said:

Frz rain will not be a issue around the metro 

Maybe not in Manhattan. But there were two icing events in the past week just outside of the concrete jungle. The upcoming "pattern" produces overrunning waves. That means mid-level warm layers and a ZR risk. The southwest mid-level flow and lack of strong SLP just make it harder to get heavy precipitation and a snow-supporting column together at the same time for more than a few hours.

17 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

I think we will have to wait until after mid month for a favorable pattern to get anything big now.  The trends for next week are all wrong as of today's runs.

And we may not get that favorable pattern - winter is winding down by then.  

Yup. We have to hope we cash in over the next 10 days. Long range stuff is just wishing and dreaming.

16 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yea because the models don't change in the mid range. You do realize that the MJO hasn't even passed through 8 yet.

I'm not the slightest bit interested in the MJO index when we have multiple trackable snow threats in the mid range. With this setup, right now, if you tweak the shortwave progression and evolution, you get multiple significant snowstorms. Snow doesn't give a fck what the MJO is.

7 minutes ago, Cheticus said:

It's a shame this thread has been hijacked by kook nation.  I always enjoyed it as a fun escape.

Calm down. It's just a temporary break from your regularly scheduled (mindless) programming. Are you referring to me as a kook, or someone else? What have I said this is kooky?

12z was bad (GFS, CMC, ECM)  No sugarcoating. Way too much rain through the extended. Ensembles are narrowing the spread and shrinking the snow means. Enjoy Sunday if you can.

28 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

This obviously isn't going to work. This banter threat is just going to turn into another OT. Most people here don't even look at that toxic OT because they don't want to see people fighting in a nasty way with each other over politics. Sad if we're going to have that in the NYC forum now. I hope Rjay and BxEngine will change their minds. 

Of course there is the option of not even looking at this banter thread anymore. I think many will do that, but it's a shame for people that would like to participate with weather banter or banter on lighter subjects. 

I would kind of like this to be an active place for locals to carry out essential political discussion. But I'm personally likely to move onto other things soon. And there is little sustained interest in this kind of thing. Most people use twittergram or whatever anyway. You can breath easy... the banter thread will live on as normal.

31 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

It is, but the place for anger and disrespect is in OT.

 

"Disrespect" is subjective. The moderators have ruled (against my recommendation) that they will allow these discussions here.

I tend to think it is necessary to address these issues in all public forums.

Pretty strong agreement among the GEFS members that Tue is a light/fringe event south and Thursday is a warm - mostly liquid event. Fortunately the members tend to cluster fairly reliably around the operational run.

I would pay money to never have to accidentally glance at a 300+hr anomaly chart.

I had really hoped we would be in a stronger position at this point. Instead we face a succession of very tenuous threats. Lots of failure modes here. Yes there are still several legit snow threats. But right now the only strong chance for 6"+ is the far northern suburbs on Sunday.

Honestly, your great, great grandchildren will still feel the shame and embarrassment of your having supported DJ Trump. I bet even just conversations in this forum will survive as record and proof.

It's not about democrat vs republican, liberal vs conservative. It's not about policy. It's about basic human decency. It's about believing in building something for the collective good vs. destroying what we've built for the sake of an everyone-for-themselves world. People have to decide for themselves to leave the cult.

2 minutes ago, North and West said:

By phrasing it like that, aren’t you providing credence to what I was saying? Personally, I don’t like Trump nor did I vote for him, but when questioning a few things about the other side’s mistakes, it gets turned up to 11 and you turn off persuadable people.

Getting yelled at is not a fun experience for people and drowns out the message.


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You had a random list of vague topics. Each of which would require details, complexity, and nuance in the response. But we're happy to discuss any topic that you want. But be specific. No person or team is 100% perfect. But we have a very very clear distinction here. Both sides are not "equally bad." I can list dozens of obvious flaws on one side. Serious, meaningful, impactful stuff. And you counter with relatively trivial stuff. That's not balanced.

3 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Oops, I didn't realize i had stumbled into OT.

Take a few slow deep breaths.

This shit is serious.

12z CMC and GFS... nice runs for southern VT!

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I think 500 years is being overly optimistic, probably more like 20 years-- we've had a few close calls before Covid and since 2000.  Human beings are advancing into tropical forests where they don't belong and we also have the disgusting impacts of wet markets.  According to many biologists, the pace of pandemics will only increase.

Of course it could be sooner. Most experts believe it will be. I agree with your points. But I was trying not to be alarmist. The point is that it is a real and present threat. We had a plan for how to respond. Now we mostly don't.

12 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Been following weather since 1969.  Can't remember Winter Storm Watches for sleet?  I do not agree that a WSW should be issued for 2"inches of snow and whatever amount of sleet to follow.  I think it is especially disingenuous to the public at large.  

Agreed. OKX issued for 3-5" of snow plus a glaze of ice. That's borderline for this area, but not egregious IMO. That office has been cautious this week.

1 hour ago, North and West said:

I mean, we’re glossing over the recent issue of the pain of school closures, not being able to question Covid’s origins, and lying about Biden’s mental deterioration after many of us have had elderly loved ones that we’ve seen decline with age.

If people were so upset about Biden and school closures, why didn't they just vote for Nikki Haley?

I can surely see how those concerns are right up there with health care, child care, elderly care, college education costs etc. Great people.

N&W brings up COVID, a good example topic.

Trump supporters fundamentally misunderstand the potential threat of a global pandemic. Eventually (probably within the next 500 years) there will be a global pandemic (possibly respiratory virus) that will devastate global civilization and kill 10-50% of the population. This is something that scientists have been studying and planning for.

COVID was that kind of threat. A contagious respiratory virus can quickly overwhelm hospitals. Then you have people dying in the waiting rooms, in the hallways, then in the parking lots. And the health care system can no longer provide care to anybody. No rescue for accident victims, heart attacks, no care for pregnancies or any other emergencies, no painkillers, no medicines. Grocery stores shut down, transportation networks, police, utility stations... everything collapses. And quickly. COVID progressed pretty far down this path in parts of Italy and China (early 2020). It was a pretty close call in many other places, including NYC.

How do we humbly educate people about the very real risks of a global pandemic... people who have been encouraged to mistrust scientists, who don't understand complexity or nuance, who are hyper focused on their own little bubbles? How do we explain to them that minor inconveniences like masks, vaccines, and even school closures are essential tools to defend against civilization collapse in the face of a global pandemic? I thought we did a great job explaining and encouraging and teaching. End result of that effort, they think Fauci is some kind of monster. Sigh.

Good thing we had Trump insisting for all of February 2020 that COVID would be gone in a few weeks and then musing about drinking bleach.

The abbreviated list is only a subset. And it does not include all the disastrous policy initiatives and political appointments he has made. All of the destructive tweets and speeches that have undermined faith in the bedrocks of our democracy.

Oh but, but but... democrats tried to minimize the significance of Biden's signs of aging because they didn't want Trump to win the election. See, they suck too.

What we know about Trump:

- Advisors say he can't grasp details in meetings - needs simple summaries or a picture
- Age = 78 years (shows evidence of fatigue and senility)
- Credibly accused of revealing classified secrets
- An obvious national security risk
- Maintains an obvious conflict of interest between Presidency and business interest
- champion of nepotism and cronyism
- Plausibly accused of money laundering
- Plausibly accused of financial fraud (and many other crimes that I won't list)
- Convicted of (felony) falsification of business records (to cheat the American voting public)
- Found liable for sexual abuse in civil trial
- Plausibly accused of rape by several women
- Slept with numerous prostitutes
- Encouraged a riot at the US Capitol
- Encouraged violence against women, immigrants, judges, and political enemies

Wait so humility is what wins elections? Admitting mistakes? Acknowledging the other side has legitimate arguments and their ignorance and delusions fueled by hate mongering should actually be coddled? Hmmmm, tell that to Jimmy Carter, Hillary Clinton, and Al Gore.

DJ Trump won 2 elections. He exhibited none of the qualities you are espousing.

Coordinated hate mongering against liberals for 30 years (TV, radio) has only accelerated with social media. No amount of humble discussion will ever be able to undo that. You are incredibly naive if you think our messaging is the problem.

1 minute ago, North and West said:

I think for you guys to get your points across better is to have more humility rather than insulting others.

I think a lot of what you said is valuable and I agree with - insane defense spending, environmental healing, food health and safety, a tax code that favors ultra wealthy - but the messaging is losing. It sounds religious. More in the aspect of “I’m right, you’re not only wrong, but in fact too dumb to realize I’m right.”

I mean, we’re glossing over the recent issue of the pain of school closures, not being able to question Covid’s origins, and lying about Biden’s mental deterioration after many of us have had elderly loved ones that we’ve seen decline with age.

People don’t have to be in lockstep with everything.

Humility should be acknowledging your own mistakes and poor choices, but showing why the path you’re promoting today is beneficial and helpful to the future.


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Humility failed. We tried for 8 years. Longer even. If you want, pick an issue and we'll talk about it. We try to do the right thing. Sometimes it works well, sometimes not. The other side will attack us either way - no matter what. Oh and we replaced our aging candidate. The other side did not. And when was the last time Trump admitted a mistake about anything?

Sometimes both sides are not equally to blame. There are not always two equally strong argument to an issue.

Be fair, and step up.

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

He's definitely a con man and has been throughout his life, but some people can find excuses for anyone-- until it happens to them

Yeah I guess we actually know the answer - tribalism. If we perceive someone to be on our team - in our family - we will defend them and rationalize their bad behavior. While at the same time, someone on a different team is vilified for trivial actions or imaginary behavior.

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Reagan-First Bush (huge increase in income disparity from trickle down economics)

Clinton correction (much stronger economy)

Bush, Jr-- Patriot Act, mass surveillance, torture

Obama-- (he was sort of in the middle so some of the above bad policies continued, but some improved, the economy got better after the big recession).

Trump first term-- dysfunctional, but carried over the strong economy from the end of the Obama term until the Covid pandemic began.

Biden-- brought us out of the Covid pandemic, passed historic legislation to combat climate change, but inflation was high (not his fault-- a holdover from the pandemic.)

Trump second term-- a trainwreck so far.

I see what you're saying about  a wide deviation, but I'm looking at the big picture over several decades, I think we get corrections following bad administrations, so hopefully it happens again.

Yes we've swung from republican presidents to democratic and back again. But all of them before Trump genuinely tried to be President of the people. They had our interests in mind even if their policies were sometimes misguided. They respected our history and our institutions. How someone cannot see that Trump is a career con man who cares only about himself completely baffles me.

And good observation that the US has had stronger economies during democratic presidencies over the past 40 years.

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

I think we'd be much better off emulating Europe in many ways. climate science, food science, public health, etc.  Way too many big money interests are allowed to fester here and it's why our society is much less healthy (and has been since about 2000 when the diabetes epidemic began here.)

 

Europe has its faults too. There's too much nationalism and cultural pride to allow full cooperation between countries or cultural harmony within ethnically diverse nations. And they love their traditions, which can slow the pace of modernization. We had the chance to be the best of both words here, with our melting pot culture. We could have set the example by observing and adopting the best aspects of other places. Instead we seem intent on wanting to be the worst.