eduggs

The meso models are not enthused about snow prospects Wed night. Maybe they will be wrong and the snow shield will be more widespread, but I doubt it. Downsloping off terrain with a SLP to our NNW rarely works out. Best chance of whitening the ground will probably come with scattered instability snow squalls on Thurs. morning.

Both the GFS and NAM look good for a C-1" of snow Wed night through Thurs. morning. Maybe 2" N&W for a few lucky spots that get some squalls on Thurs. the CMC, ICON, and 18z ECM don't show much snow for our area. It looks like at least two periods of precipitation. An initial burst with intense frontogenesis Wed night and then possible squalls early Thurs.

The GFS and especially NAM are surprisingly wet in CT. If the wetter models are right and some of that works back into SENY and NENJ, it could be a fun night. Temperatures start chilly and get very cold aloft (i.e., steep lapse rates). But I won't really believe the snow threat until the ECM comes on board. Either way, the hills of interior CT and MA and esp. southern VT should get a few to several inches of snow.

17 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It may have something to do with the crazy Atlantic SSTs which is why we keep seeing those -NAOs with SE ridges

14 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Rockies are also taller than the Apps/Greens/Whites (same chain but still concept applica) so that might help consolidate the vortex vs. having an open warm Atlantic to our east

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I agree it probably is related to ocean heat content and continental/terrain-ocean interactions... plus the steadily strengthening geostrophic wind due to stronger temperature gradients.

It's probably a feature that will become increasingly persistent in time due to planet warming.

We'll see how Wed night goes. And obviously the month just started. But I can see a way that December ends up less snowy than November for a lot of the NW suburbs. Long range modeling suddenly looks shockingly bad for snow.

ECM says welcome to the worst December weather since 1988.
Cold & dry, rain, Cold & dry, rain, rain, Cold & dry, rain...

Another day, another shitty model cycle. It's been all down hill since a snowy, Friday November 22.

45 minutes ago, Patrick-02540 said:

Is it me, or does it seem clippers always seem to hit overnight?  At least, back when they used to hit.  

That's cause there's only about 8 hours of daylight this time of year. So chances of daytime snow are low

As expected, the 18z GFS shifted towards model consensus for the 10th and beyond and away from a wintry threat.

"Pattern" is a misused and misunderstood phrase, but if we want to grossly generalize things then we can say this "pattern" or orientation and evolution of the synoptic flow field does not look to be very favorable for snow locally.

13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

That's why I like going into the SNE subforum. Very reasonable people there.

As soon as someone in the SNE subforum posted a thread about the best early December pattern in years, snow prospects for us fell to shit   Those guys are generally too optimistic about future patterns that are just beyond the horizon. Same story for the past few years. But that is born out of a series of good years in the 2010s and significantly more margin for snow in NE compared to the northern mid-atlantic.

1 hour ago, bwt3650 said:

I’m far from an expert, but my experience is radar will never show what’s going on in this area well. It’s all about the flow…it’s been snowing almost non stop for 3 days here and very little shows up. If bands are approaching the orleans county border, we’re usually snowing well.


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That's awesome about the semi-continuous snow up there. Those periods are the best when you never know how much snow will fall and for how long.

The Green Mountains clearly block the radar beam in that region, which makes local observations all the more critical. Modeling seems to have correctly predicted an extension of the Lake Ontario LES band into the northern Greens. But since there was little on the NY side, I gotta figure that the snow at low elevations on the VT side was due to either Champlain enhancement or some kind of low level convergence.

18 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Kinda baffled by this sounding... Can someone more knowledgeable than me explain how Sleet can be present with no layers above freezing to induce that partial melt required for sleet to be present? This looks like an all snow sounding

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Can be insufficient saturation in the snow growth region, lack of nucleation, temps too warm for crystallization etc... If conditions aren't sufficient, you get supercooled rain drops and then ice pellets instead of snowflakes even if the temperature is below freezing. But that sounding looks like snow or mostly snow.

12 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

And cmc is ugly

Most likely outcome IMO. Pray for a snow squall Wed night.

Sign me up for the 12z GFS. Some snow to long duration frozen mix. Nice trof axis and pretty cold surface. But unlikely outcome.

12z GFS is pretty interesting around the 10th. That would probably work. But it's a long way off and too much run-to-run variability to have any confidence. The threat for the 8th keeps decreasing in likelihood.

Is that persistent band near Franklin County Airport in Vermont typical with these setups? It looks like some Lake Champlain enhancement from the Ontario LES band. The low elevation also probably enhances the reflectivity relative to the terrain due to better line-of-sight. I feel like I've seen that feature before, but I don't usually look carefully for it. There doesn't seem to be any mention in the NWS BTV forecast.

Kinda cool.

30 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

If they’re on to something….We’ll take that.

Well first week and probably into second week of December looks below normal. And you have to weigh the nearer term more heavily based on lower forecast skill in the long term. The second half of December could be average to slightly above and you'd still end up with that monthly temperature forecast in the northeast.

18z GFS is a sweet run for coastal Maine and SE NH and pretty intriguing for EMA and the rest of New England for the Dec. 8th potential event. Too late for us. But it demonstrates potential for rapidly translating a flat mid-level shortwave into a deepening cutoff with SLP capture. Eastern New England is clearly favored and there still isn't much inter-model support, but at least it's something to watch.

7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I'm really just hoping for some minor accumulations..less than an inch

Me too. I think north of I-287/I-80 has a 50-50 shot at 1". South of there will be tough. We're going to need some luck.

We need more STJ involvement. Or we need a ridge axis further west with the s/w for the 8th diving further southwest. As is, the modeling is not close. Any cyclogenesis would happen too late outside DE Maine and the Maritimes. If the STJ links with the follow up wave around the 10th, chances increase for rain. Low expectations are advised for now.

12z GFS and CMC not very good. Still barely trackable threats. The lead up to the elevation event a week ago that delivered accumulations to southern Westchester was far more interesting.

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

This isn't true. Patience is key.

Winter is too short for patience. We will only have a few windows of time where we can get snow locally. Treasure every snow shower.

3 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

give it time.........once the trough axis starts moving further west ( mid month) from right along the coast storms will develop further west rather then east of us......BUT timing and storm track is key and need that strong high up in southeast Canada...

Rain

The next 10 days looks to favor New England, and Maine in particular if ensembles are to be believed. Positive 500mb anomalies make it as far east as MN, which creates a steep NW flow angle that doesn't usually deliver us much precipitation. Maybe something changes moving forward. It wouldn't take too much to get some snow showers at least. Web cams from ALB to Glens Falls look nice today. But it always seems like it's snowing somewhere else.

12 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Not necessarily, not at all. 

First off, 10:1 is an arbitrary number which is essentially just a made up average. There is no true gauge of what the actual snowfall ratio is. If you get 1'' of QPF and lets say the model accurately predicts that and accurately predicts all snow and then spits out 10'' of snow. If you're snowgrowth and lift is crappy through the duration of the 1''...you're not getting 10'' of snow.  

Yes we all agree 10:1 is arbitrary.
But if a chart specifically defines the output as representing a 10:1 liquid to snow ratio, the model just needs to get the ptype and QPF correct. The snow map is just a visual representation of data... like a graph or plot. It's not a forecast.

12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I don’t take them seriously either way. So it’s not really an interesting detail to parse to me.
 

But I’ve def heard the SV maps have a reputation for being overdone. But then again, 10 to 1 is often overdone for various reasons too whether models overdo QPF or snow growth is bad or temps are marginal. Sometimes they’re underdone on occasion when snow growth is good. 

A factor of 2 is a big difference IMO when people still post SV maps on this board and then you start referencing those maps. Go check how StormVista compares to Pivotal or TropicalTidbits or whatever others are out there in terms of snowfall.

Yes 10:1 is an arbitrary starting point. But if you don't get that part right, your starting point makes it hopeless to even be in the right ballpark.