eduggs

5 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Im only at 15.5 up here north of 84 but this one will help. 

I like the southern Catskills to the CT-MA border for the jackpot zone. But if the model consensus is a hair too warm, you might be golden where you're at. Max QPF may end up just south of where the max snow is currently forecasted. If that lines up with a snow column it's double digits.

I'm rooting for you because your area is due. If and when you mix with sleet you may not change over completely since mid-level warming will be weakening over time and there may be a dynamical cooling element to ptype with a shallow layer above freezing.

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

13 months ? Jeez

I saw 2 storms 6+  this winter 

It's not like it hasn't snowed. There have been a good number of 1-2" events. But we always want more and bigger. I know you enjoyed your two solid events, but I bet you were still a little jealous of LI, SE CT, and SNJ when they got 12+. 

Almost the entire state of MA is 6+ (10:1) on every model. So jealous. It's been almost 13 months since I saw 6" of snow here in Morris County. For some areas this will be #3 or 4 this winter alone. Spoiled fckers. 

So the GFS and UK were essentially unchanged from 18z and 12z respectively and the CMC ticked south relative to 12z. Not a lot of movement overall. A model blend seems reasonable.

The GFS at 0z looks a lot like 18z. There are the usual minor localized differences, but that's mostly noise. I'm happy it didn't trend worse. This can still shift more wintry.

Model consensus has NYC right on the threshold... a shift colder and this is a significant wintry event. A shift warmer, and it's a minor nuisance event. The question for the northern suburbs is does this become a major snow event or mostly mix? And the question for the southern burbs is whether there is any impactful wintry precip. at all.

There's not much sense in guessing, but I'll do it anyway. I think warning snows stay north of I-84 with a lot of sleet between there and I-80. I think frozen accumulations decrease rapidly south of there with minimal impact south of the latitude of Raritan Bay.

The RGEM actually cools the mid-level during the event Thurs morning as the event progresses and a SLP develops well south of LI. The strengthening damning signature is evident. But by the time the column is below freezing, the dendritic growth zone is unsaturated and we are left with freezing drizzle. It looks like the RGEM goes to +3 or +4 at the warmest. If that were closer to +1 or even +2, I would have more confidence this ends up isothermal.

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

NAM is notably lower with heights. always a bit hesitant to believe a warmer solution given a strong HP in an ideal location

 

Kind of a chicken or egg thing, no?

The strength and position of the high is dictated by the upper levels. So a model will tend to show shifts in height field that correspond to changes in surface pressure. But that doesn't mean that the high is causing the change - just that the surface features are happening in tandem with changes in the other surface and upper level features.

4 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

What does it matter if people are asleep? Does that not mean it won't snow? I have missed 8 inches of snow when it snowed at night. It will still be snowing north of city at 7am. 

Falling snow that can be walked and played in is obviously more fun than previously fallen, ice-encrusted snow. We're all hoping the snow line isn't too far north. But there is not currently a lot of guidance that doesn't have it pretty far north by daybreak. Fingers crossed for a cold-south trend.

2 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Im not familiar with anybody sleep patterns. I'm just saying there will be some snow and putnam could get 4 inches or so. 

That's a little disingenuous. You know as well as anybody else that most people are asleep at 4am.

I agree parts of Putnam could get something like 4 inches of snow. If I had to choose right now I would take the under. But I'm hoping that area gets hammered so I can get 4"

49 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Simply not true. There will be 1-4 inches from NYC up to Putnam county and some 1-2 inch type numbers on north shore as well. Now if you mean 6+ then I agree. 

There might be a little snow for NENJ, Putnam, Westchester etc. But will anybody be awake to see it? Sure looks like IP or ZR by daybreak except well north of the metro.

Nice band from LI to PHL to BWI. Wish I was in it.

7 minutes ago, tek1972 said:

Where are you located?

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

Near Morristown.

Lots of places overperformed a little this morning, which is great! But locally we were a little bit of a snow-minimum, and it has only been flurries and light wet snow during the day, which is a little disappointing.

On the season we are something like 0 for 8 in terms of hit ratio for a moderate or better snow event. It just hasn't been our year in Morris County.

Sun shining through the clouds now. Snow melting off the cars. A little warner than I expected this morning.

Stuck in subsidence all day  I just want to experience moderate or better snowfall intensity during the daytime at least once this winter!

Looks like about 2" on the grass near Morristown.

I'm seeing 4 and 5 inch totals from Warren Co. NJ and parts of EPA. Nice! I guess the good banding was to the west overnight?

I wake up to flurries and a shredded radar while NYC to BOS is dumping  This winter... just the same story over and over again 

At least I got a few inches of paste. Looks really nice.

Not a very good 0z except for maybe the GFS op. The EC could still revive this a little.

9 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I thought the GFS looked a little better at 500mb.

A little better than 18z. But still a far cry from last night's 6z or even 12z really. Two steps back, one step forward.

3rd run in a row the RGEM has shifted weaker/east. Not surprising considering the wrapped up coastal hugger on the Canadian at 12z.

The GFS is following the multi-model trend with the stronger northern wave north of MN, but not losing sharpness at the base of the trof. That's what we need.

12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Icon was actually better for everyone in SNE from its last run..spreads a big swath of snow across the whole area. Not that it really matters, cuz it’s the icon and all.  
 

Aren’t you in the wrong sub forum though? 

The 0z ICON is worse for everyone regardless of what the fantasy snow maps showed. Just cycle H5. And trends in the ICON matter. More times than not they match the other models, even if the overall depiction is slightly less accurate on average.

Both the NAM and ICON were slight steps back - especially the NAM. Hopefully it's not indicative of how the rest of 0z will go.

The mini trend is for a flatter southern wave and a stronger, further south, potentially cut off northern wave. I don't think that's going to cut it because the strongest baroclinity ends up offshore. It's difficult to recover from that no matter how strong the northern wave is.

The UK snows for 30+ hours. A weenie can dream.

Look at the UK at H5. Totally different height field compared to GFS and CMC. It drops a PV lobe down into the midwest. Much higher impact potential.

I feel like we've seen the UK have these kinds of southern PV solutions in the mid-range before. It looks like a low likelihood outcome. But for now I'll take any model solution that has a higher ceiling than the weak, positively tilted coastal slider that seems predestined.