Chicago Storm

NAM will either be north, or end up going big earlier and shearing out faster.

We’ll have to watch that trend. It was something that was seen with GHD3 in the days leading up to it. Guidance overcorrected in that case, and then ended up coming back faster once again. The other potential would obviously be for it to keep trending slower, which then could cause other issues .

Bump NW. .

18z GEFS .

Ejection was a bit slower, which has been a trend.

GFS not backing down... Yet.

The new compromise of the GFS/Euro.

12z EPS mean .

12z Euro will bump north.

This winter might be the worst performance I can recall from it. And that's surprising, because last winter it had moments of greatness.

Think of it like the GFS vs the NAM for us, that's essentially what they are. Then there is also the HRDPS, which would be like the 3km NAM to us.

12z GEFS Mean

My feeling for about 3 days now has been that we will see a compromise between the GFS/Euro solutions, which would impact near where GHD3 hit. A few things to watch though, which are differences between the GFS/Euro. The GFS is a good bit further north with the lead wave that moves across Canada on Tue/Wed, while the Euro is much further south. This impacts ridging ahead of the main through in the West. Another thing is hat there are some differences in how the GFS/Euro handle how much the main through will dig into the Southwest, and where exactly the secondary wave diving into the West tracks. Some of this difference is connected to the aforementioned differences in how the lead wave is handled for Tue/Wed. .

12z GFS actually bumped NW. .

EPS have been very flip-floppy. Just a day or so ago it was like the GEFS. And even so, it’s still not a ‘winter holds strong’ look.

A weaker/southeast solution (foreign guidance) will not have the same wind potential as an amped/northwest solution (GFS), not even remotely close. .

ENS means say it all. .

GFS is obviously an easy toss right now. This is literally the same scenario we saw play out with GHD3, and in an overall very similar setup. A compromise of GFS and foreign guidance continues to be the way to go, which would still have placement near where GHD3 impacted (Narrower corridor this go around). .

0z GEFS mean .

I was trying to shy away from that term again. I shall never read back on that thread. .

Actually, ended up not. Just noise level in the end.

Noticeable changes with many of the main pieces on the 0z GFS, which should result in a bump north. .

GFS was the last to cave south with the overrunning event, and in the end a compromise ended up being correct between the GFS/Euro for it. .

sounds familiar, doesn’t it. we know how that worked out last time.

It’s just about as good of a phase we can get, based on how things are on paper right now. So probably the tip of the ceiling for the event, and obviously would still favor weaker/SE. I think it was yesterday when I mentioned I would favor a hit near where GHD3 hit, in other words a compromise of the GFS/Euro (which ironically is what ended up working out at this range for GHD3). .