Chicago Storm

Severe t'storm warning for portions of the metro, including here at home. Peak wind gusts of 50-55MPH here with this activity.

Should note that the HRRR has done a great job the past two days, even from at it's longer ranges.

Looking like any good threat across IL today will be limited to along and south of I-70. Should be more marginal to slight worthy at best across C and N IL.

A bit messy is an understatement. It’s pretty much NAM’s vs all right now.

If I were in Green Bay/C WI, then I'd be concerned about WF positioning.

The biggest issue for Wednesday is what happens with a lead wave ejecting out from MX/TX, and how quickly the associated debris clouds/showers moves across the Mid-Mississippi Valley/Ohio Valley.

There are countless events that could be listed.

That’s not even close to being an issue in this case.

Experienced almost every precip type today... Rain/snow/snow pellets/ice pellets/graupel.

Grass has already greened up out here in the suburbs, with some trees/shrubs slowly starting to pop as well. Also, forgot to mention... Final snowfall totals of 0.1" ORD and 1.5" RFD with the first snow event last Thur/Fri (March 31-April 1st), and then 0.1" ORD and 1.7" RFD with the second snow event last Sat (April 2nd).

Haven't updated in a while... As was a possibility that was mentioned at the end of the above post, we did end up with a pattern change as we moved from mid to late March, which is the same pattern everyone is currently enjoying. This pattern has been dominated by Greenland area ridging (-NAO) and a Aleutian/Gulf of Alaska low/trough(+WPO/+EPO). This has lead to the active and cool pattern we have been experiencing across much of the region, since the week of March 21st. Interestingly enough, this pattern has featured the first real -NAO we've seen since mid-December. Our next pattern flip is already in the process of occurring, and is one which many of you have already mentioned bringing warmer temp and severe weather opportunities for next week. This pattern will be driven by a large chunk of the Aleutian/GOA low migrating SE with a -PNA setting in, with push of Aleutian/GOA ridging (-WPO/-EPO) with developing for a time. This will lead to the active pattern next week, with the aforementioned warm temps and severe potential for a large portion of the Central/Eastern US for a several day period. However... It is looking increasingly likely that we'll see another pattern flip late next week and into next weekend (Easter Weekend). Solid support from ENS regarding this pattern change, with it looking like a +WPO/+EPO/+PNA pattern. This would support a large low/trough in the Aleutian/GOA area once again, along with a ridge around the Western US...and means that the mean trough would set up over the Lakes/Northeast once again. A wild card will be what happens with the NAO, which at this time appears to be trending neutral or a bit negative. All in all, enjoy the brief pattern flip with warmer/severe potential next week, cause it won't be sticking around yet.

some illinois folks would disagree.

Nice cold front/OFB collision a bit ago in W TX…

And approximately the 1.5-2 weeks prior to that were good to great.

There have definitely been worse starts to spring.

Not really remotely close in most aspects. The biggest difference of all, is that was a wrapped-up/stronger SW-NW moving storm system.

Looking like an axis of 1-3” of snowfall into N IL and the northern two tiers of the NW LOT CWA for tomorrow morning/afternoon.

Looking increasingly likely that there could even be a DAB-2" of snowfall across portions of N IL as well, tonight into tomorrow morning.

Synoptic winds are not going to be that high.

Peak synoptic wind gusts yesterday/last night of 44MPH ORD, 47MPH MDW and 54MPH RFD. Peak convective shower wind gusts yesterday afternoon of 45MPH ORD, 47MPH MDW and 58MPH RFD.

Severe t’storm warning for portions of the metro. 72MPH wind gust at ARR recently.

Things look very supportive for squalls, lightning/thunder, graupel and higher wind gust potential.

Disturbance spinning down through IA..,

I wouldn’t go as far as to say that. Currently no real sign that the current PNA regime is going to change any time soon.