Chicago Storm

Left earlier this morning and forgot my Canon battery, so had to go back for it. Been back on the road though, near Dwight now. 3hrs 15min out from the east side of STL. Probably will hit the Central IL MCS on the way down, which has a shelf cloud. So a little bit of everything today. Probably will be some pop up storms down south during eclipse time. Pulling for that elusive shot Hoosier mentioned before.

Probably will get up at about 6AM and see what the cloud/MCS situation looks like. Fairly pessimistic on things right now.

I'm not too optimistic, but still holding with near Carbondale as my target. Nearby areas are a backup option, but I'm not gonna drive deep into MO or KY for it.

Right now I plan on heading downstate to around Carbondale for the eclipse. If precip/clouds are an issue down there though, might have to deal with a near full eclipse up here instead if conditions are better.

0z GFS with the best looking potential of the season, with two quality Plains days next Wed/Thur. While it definitely looks like there will be severe in the Tue-Sat timeframe, potential multiple waves with non-stop convection and meridional flow issues are concerning at this range.

A few tors reported with the storm NW of Hyannis, NE.

Nice couplet with the tor warned embedded supercell well SW of Faith, SD. Nice tor warned storm NE of Alliance, NE as well.

TOG recently with that storm NE of the AMA area...

Tor warned storm north of the AMA area...

Tor east of Trinidad, CO not too long ago.

It's not good for anyone who missed the good days during that active week in late-May, as that's the only time this season really produced. Looks like the traditional chase season will end as it started. We'll see if there's any surprise events between now and the fall season.

Nice sup in N. Mexico...

Change that to Tuesday and Thursday-Sunday and I agree.

The first trough (Sat-Mon) is meh in terms of potential, but it does help with moisture return for the 2nd trough (Tue/Wed). As mentioned above by others, Tues looks sig on both the GFS/ECMWF. Still 6 days out, so we'll see how it progresses.

Current period (4-6th) isn't too interesting, and I suspect the 7-10th will prove to be the same. Saturday obviously has the highest potential of any day between now and Sunday, but I'm leaning heavily towards it being underwhelming due to early/morning initiation.

Don't expect another worthy chase day for me until mid-month. Upcoming pattern until that point really doesn't look like anything more than run of the mill sort of events, though as Brett stated, something interesting could pop up on short notice.

If not for an accident on I-65 I would have been on the Henryville tor...Oh, what could have been...

It's good to hear you're alright, JoMo.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 400 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011 ...EF-4 TORNADO CONFIRMED IN JOPLIN... * DATE...22 MAY 2011 * MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF-4 * ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...198 MPH * ESTIMATED PATH WIDTH...3/4 MILE * FATALITIES...116 * INJURIES...400 * THIS PRELIMINARY INFORMATION WAS DETERMINED BY A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SURVEY TEAM AND IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT AND PUBLICATION IN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM DATA.

As posted in the main forum topic... Here's what I have... April 27th - 12AM-11:59PM (Local Time) Tornado Count: 179 Tornado Count Per CWA: MRX: 51 HUN: 31 JAN: 30 BMX: 29 MEG: 12 FFC: 10 OHX: 9 SHV: 4 LWX: 4 AKQ: 3 GSP: 2 LMK: 2 MOB: 1 RNK: 1 RLX: 1 ILN: 1 CTP: 1 BMG: 1

Happy birthday.

You beat me to it, damn it...

We now have two EF-5's... The Hackleburg, AL & Smithville, MS tor's.