Chicago Storm

Topped out at 94 at ORD and 95 and MDW today.

2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Assuming the low of 78 at ORD holds up the rest of the day (it should), it would tie the record high min from 1881.

It should hold, as it looks like storms should stay away from SE. WI until very late tonight.

91 at ORD thus far.

There has been a lot of cloud debris all day, and an OFB that moved through earlier. Looks like more clearing mid-late afternoon, so there will be a chance for a late rally.

Topped out at 97 at ORD and 96 and MDW today.

Thicker cirrus that moved in this afternoon might have knocked 1F off potential highs.

PWK up to 98/99 now...somehow.

Up to 97 at ORD now.

We’re just about at maximum heating potential given UA temps and mixing levels, so should flatline shortly. Cirrus cloud debris will be moving in shortly as well.

It’s up to 95 at ORD.

Somehow PWK is 97.

8 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Already 90 at ORD

91 now. Clouds shouldn’t be an issue until later in the afternoon as it looks like now.

I’ll revise to 97 today, 95 tomorrow and 90 on Monday.

Mondays looks to hold some potential. 

Looks like the best frontal timing and the most UL flow for the LOT CWA since May. We'll see how it trends the next few days...

Looks like the 90's make a return this weekend...

I'll go 95 Sat/Sun and 90 Mon.

Cloud debris could be an issue each day, and Mon could have storm issues...So none of the days are super high confidence.

15 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

A little snippet from the DVN AFD back on this day in 2011.  Can't even fathom something like this being written now with how slow this year has been.  Almost doesn't seem possible.

. SHORT WAVE COMBINED WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND HIGH CAPES SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT
OF THUNDERSTORMS IF CAP BREAKS. IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT THEN A
DESTRUCTIVE DERECHO WITH WINDS OVER 100 MPH IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
CORFIDI VECTORS WOULD TAKE THE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE DVN CWA.

One of my favorite fails by them.

The severe threat just isn’t going to work out around here today.

I was optimistic leading in to today, but it’s pretty clear the lack of shear will mitigate any real threat. The main disturbance ended up rapidly push NE up towards Lake Superior today.

What’s left is an outflow dominant line of storms.

1 hour ago, snowlover2 said:

Don't know if yesterday's event can be called a derecho but it would have been ironic if it happened today being the anniversary of the 2012 derecho. That one was a beauty.

The main MCS was definitely a derecho. 

SPC did a downright horrible job yesterday. Not only how they handled outlooks, but also watch issuance.

Goes to show how reliant on CAM’s they are. CAM’s showed absolutely nothing yesterday, even while the even was unfolding. The HRRR really didn’t catch on until around noon in showing anything.

Classic ridge riding derecho today.

As of now it looks like 4 tors confirmed from yesterday.

1 near Hinckley, 2 near Manhattan and 1 near Rantoul.

With better lapse rates and a bit more shear/CAPE, definitely could have been a much more significant event.

6 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Would be nice if tomorrow's front could bring some interesting weather and not just a bunch of 40-50 mph gusts.  Can't rule out severe with such a moist/unstable airmass though shear is on the lighter side.

Looks like a ROM marginal risk day, unfortunately.

Looks like this season will come down to June.

Given trends and what has happened thus far, one can't really be that excited, but we'll see...

There really wasn't any tor potential today...But I ended up drifting west for the heck of it this afternoon, and ended up on the supercell that moved near DKB. Encountered a lowering, though not much rotation. It did have some mid-level rotation at the time per radar though. Also picked up some dime size hail.

Decent CAPE/DP/Lapse Rates/Shear combo today, which should lead to scattered severe storms this afternoon/evening. Few OFB's around from overnight/morning activity as well.

As expected, tonight is not slight worthy.

Tomorrow night and Monday look much more interesting.

3km/12km NAM and Euro disagrees, it is more so for stuff Saturday evening, at the very least elevated hailers as a nose of the next LLJ moves in tomorrow evening.

The slight risk this far west is definitely overdone.

Today kind of went as expected...Nothing too significant, and just scattered severe storms.

The lack of shear prevented things from getting going earlier severe wise, and storms being sustained as well...Especially prior to this evening.

Enhanced Risk was expanded in northern MO/southern IA, with a moderate risk farther west.
Also noticed this probabilistic breakdown at the end of the day 2 outlook.  Wonder if they are going to be doing this from now on.  It used to be sort of a guessing game on what the individual probabilities were for day 2.
 

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...  Tornado:  10% SIG - Enhanced  Wind:     45% SIG - Moderate  Hail:     30% SIG - Enhanced