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Chicago Storm

Professional Forecaster
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Posts posted by Chicago Storm

  1. 16 hours ago, IWXwx said:

    I read somewhere that a high amount of Saharan sand can knock down the threat and there was a large amount being transported this year. Does this have any basis in fact? 

    that has been an issue as well, so sort of double-trouble.

    however, the nino alone would create the current situation as well.

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  2. 18 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

    atl cane season seems heading for all-time snoozer status, meanwhile the east pac wants to shit out storms like crazy and it looks like HI gonna have a season for the ages

    very el nino-like, so not all that surprising.

    especially so considering the magnitude of the nino.

    • Like 2
  3. On 8/12/2026 at 5:55 PM, Chicago Storm said:

    With the tornadoes confirmed thus far with yesterday's derecho, the 2026 Illinois tornado count has now surpassed 200.

     

    On 8/17/2026 at 2:45 PM, Chicago Storm said:

    The count stands at 203.

    After getting together with LOT and sifting through things/comparing numbers, the total now stands at 207. 

    (Includes 2 newly surveyed tors added today)

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  4. 7 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

    development has occurred. we'll see how it trends the remainder of the night and into the morning.

    the bigger issue may end up being upstream, actually. most guidance is doing a fairly bad job regarding the evolution of things across the dakotas and vicinity. most guidance suggested that mcs formation would come from supercells tracking across the dakotas this evening and tonight, paired with additional development as well. not only should that scenario already have been unfolding by now, but it seems to be out the window based on evolution in reality over the past few hours.

    if this big mcs is going to come to fruition, it'll have to be from an entirely different process than most guidance had shown.

    big guidance fail.

    instead we had a cluster develop south of sioux falls.

    now we have an mcs, which has struggled to mature and organize as it has crossed iowa all morning.

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  5. 4 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

    i'd be really cautious buying into the big talk regarding tomorrow, until morning that is.

    there's a subtle wave in the sioux falls region this evening, which will translate east overnight. it appears that we should see t'storm development ahead of this feature, along the diffuse boundary across iowa and n illinois tonight. if this activity becomes too significant or lingers too deep into the morning, the big mega derecho hype will fail hard.

    development has occurred. we'll see how it trends the remainder of the night and into the morning.

    the bigger issue may end up being upstream, actually. most guidance is doing a fairly bad job regarding the evolution of things across the dakotas and vicinity. most guidance suggested that mcs formation would come from supercells tracking across the dakotas this evening and tonight, paired with additional development as well. not only should that scenario already have been unfolding by now, but it seems to be out the window based on evolution in reality over the past few hours.

    if this big mcs is going to come to fruition, it'll have to be from an entirely different process than most guidance had shown.

  6. i'd be really cautious buying into the big talk regarding tomorrow, until morning that is.

    there's a subtle wave in the sioux falls region this evening, which will translate east overnight. it appears that we should see t'storm development ahead of this feature, along the diffuse boundary across iowa and n illinois tonight. if this activity becomes too significant or lingers too deep into the morning, the big mega derecho hype will fail hard.

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  7. While multiple rounds of severe t'storm activity occurred across the area yesterday, the most notable at ORD was the late afternoon round.

    ORD had a peak wind gust of 64MPH with outflow that moved through ahead of that particular round of activity.

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  8. 13 minutes ago, cmillzz said:

    Chicago dodged what likely would've been its hottest day of the year thanks to today's storms. Rockford and Madison reached the mid-upper 90s under plenty of sun, and even Detroit ended up warmer. Pretty unlucky (or lucky) depending on how you view it, and also a really bizarre set-up.

    The thermal ridge was north.

    It's very doubtful that ORD would have topped the current highest of the year, which is 96° (7/14).

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