Chicago Storm

6 minutes ago, RemoteSenses said:

Enjoy your wishcasting brother. I respect the hope you’re holding onto.

i'm hoping for something?

3 minutes ago, RemoteSenses said:

Anyone not believing this is going further and further NE - yall are cray crazy. No hope left here.

1 minute ago, RemoteSenses said:

Literally not a single model expect the recent NAM moving it SE.

I’m being realistic. If you’re south of mid Wisconsin or Mid - Michigan you can enjoy a rain storm.


.

doc, did you switch accounts?

ICON almost looks like a nonevent lol. Parts of Wisconsin still get slammed, but it's without a doubt weaker and north.

Peak wind gusts from last night and this morning...

65MPH - ORD
60MPH - MDW
62MPH - RFD

i’m surprised we haven’t seen see some random op run keep the main wave more consolidated as it digs, and close it off further south as it goes negative tilt, leading to a ghd1 level solution further south.

i saw a few ens previously do that a day or two ago, but wanted to see the lolz from an op.

4 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said:

SPC already has a 45% area for Day 3 in S IN, S IL, and W KY. 

has forced squall line/qlcs, with damaging winds and embedded tors written all over it.

2 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

86 mph gust at KMIE. Multiple semis blown over on I 69 south of FWA.

that's top tier for a synoptic wind event in this region.

13 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

like 6 people live in the UP, thread quite active considering it's DAB for most areas people live

it is, and that's good to see.

i've said before that the folks up north need to create threads and post more often.

2 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

Any thoughts on whether the snowfall in the Upper Midwest overnight and this morning could tighten up the baroclinic zone and help the cold push a bit further south than currently modeled? Or any type of impact of the new snow cover on the various moving pieces in general?

I guess we'll see it in the 18z runs, if there's any truth to this.  I know it's weenie rule #500, but why not. 

2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

 

as usual name of the game is complex wave interactions (especially so with this) and baroclinic zone largely irrelevant imo

just be glad we're hanging onto good consensus for the rapid deepening in our backyard which can often hold surprises

 

this set-up, with the secondary quick-deepening slp, isn't really a baroclinic zone rider.

the path it will take will be fully dependent on wave ejection/interaction/phasing.

2 hours ago, Chicago916 said:

I've sensed cautious optimism from you lately. I still think it's strange given the moving pieces we haven't really seen any large swings in guidance. I guess modeling isn't that terrible then

i wouldn't say that i'm optimistic. it's just more-so knowing that nothing is locked in yet (even if some seem to think that it is), and interested in seeing how it all pans out.

10 minutes ago, Weather Mike said:

I wish there was more posts like the NE threads. This is a huge storm and its like crickets in here and if this was the NE thread it would be page 10000 by now. Just sucks living in the Midwest with the lack of enthusiasm as there is a lack of expert opinions and discussions to learn from by underlinks like me 

one of the main issues is that we just don't have a ton of people that live up in the portion of mn, wi, and mi that are a lock for the goods.

and the ones that we do have - have chimed in with their interest.

Most likely scenario is the storm cuts directly over Chicago (basing this on morning trends anyhow). Feel like we have a bit more of a consensus now, but definitely still room for some slight shifts.

i’m surprised we haven’t seen see some random op run keep the main wave more consolidated as it digs, and close it off further south as it goes negative tilt, leading to a ghd1 level solution further south.

i saw a few ens previously do that a day or two ago, but wanted to see the lolz from an op.

House across the street has had some shingles ripped off.

G64MPH ORD and G70MPH GYY.

G64MPH UGN.

High winds have begun…

RFD G60MPH.

Quite firmly.

3 minutes ago, DocATL said:

To a firmly Minnesota, Wisconsin, Northern Michigan snow event. More likely spots for mid March.

it's firmly going to be up there, eh?

18 minutes ago, DocATL said:

GFS is correcting…

Northwest trend the last three runs.

correcting to what exactly?

for those keeping score at home, here are all of the moving pieces involved with this one.

With the recently elevated mild temperatures over the past week or so, I've noticed several species of trees/bushes starting to bud/bloom.

It's decidedly a myth that the models are a shit show. The truth is the opposite. If you're wanting truly stable solutions at this lead time for a rapid deepening cyclone, we don't live in that world yet.



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Well, for starters, budgets were decimated. 

i’ll leave this right here…