Chicago Storm

based purely historical stats, nov 5th.

Taking a look at fall during higher-amplitude El Niño episodes...

October temps have generally finished near to slightly below average, although there have been a few instances of well below average temperatures. Precip tends to finish near to below average, with one notably wet outlier. Snowfall also generally ends up near average, although average October snowfall is minimal to begin with.

November has shown a stronger tendency toward cool conditions, with temps generally finishing a bit below to well below average. There is, however, one notable well above average outlier. Precip becomes much more variable in November, with outcomes ranging from below normal to well above normal precipitation. Snowfall follows a similarly mixed pattern, with a fairly wide range of outcomes, from below average to well above average.

...Normal/Average...
Oct Temp: 54.0°
Oct Precip: 3.43"
Oct Snow: 0.2"
Nov Temp: 41.3°
Nov Precip: 2.42"
Nov Snow: 1.8"

...2015... (Fall - Strong/Super El Nino)
Oct Temp: 54.7° (+0.7°)
Oct Precip: 2.23" (-1.02")
Oct Snow: 0.0" (-0.2")
Nov Temp: 44.6° (+3.3°)
Nov Precip: 4.49" (+2.07")
Nov Snow: 11.2" (+9.4")

...1997... (Fall - Super El Nino)
Oct Temp: 53.1° (-0.9°)
Oct Precip: 2.75" (-0.68")
Oct Snow: 0.0" (-0.2")
Nov Temp: 36.4° (-4.9°)
Nov Precip: 1.46" (-0.96")
Nov Snow: 3.3" (Missing Data) (+1.5")

...1991... (Fall - Moderate/Strong El Nino)
Oct Temp: 53.2° (-0.8°)
Oct Precip: 7.36" (+3.93")
Oct Snow: 0.0" (-0.2")
Nov Temp: 35.1° (-6.2°)
Nov Precip: 3.59" (+1.17")
Nov Snow: 1.2" (-0.6")

...1982... (Fall - Strong/Super El Nino)
Oct Temp: 53.2° (-0.8°)
Oct Precip: 1.88" (-1.55")
Oct Snow: 0.0" (-0.2")
Nov Temp: 39.1° (-2.2°)
Nov Precip: 6.95" (+4.53")
Nov Snow: 0.4" (-1.4")

...1972... (Fall - Strong El Nino)
Oct Temp: 50.2° (-3.8°)
Oct Precip: 3.62" (+0.19")
Oct Snow: 0.8" (+0.6")
Nov Temp: 37.5° (-3.8°)
Nov Precip: 3.18" (+0.76")
Nov Snow: 5.5" (+3.7")

...1965... (Fall -Strong El Nino)
Oct Temp: 54.0° (0.0)
Oct Precip: 1.06" (-2.37")
Oct Snow: 0.0" (-0.2")
Nov Temp: 42.0° (+0.7°)
Nov Precip: 1.10" (-1.32")
Nov Snow: 0.0" (-1.8")

...1957... (Fall - Moderate/Strong El Nino)
Oct Temp: 52.0° (-2.0°)
Oct Precip: 3.15" (-0.28")
Oct Snow: 1.9" (+1.7")
Nov Temp: 40.2° (-1.1°)
Nov Precip: 2.72" (+0.30")
Nov Snow: 0.5" (-1.3")

Didn't think we would reel the train in this far north tonight but it has been booming like a mf

I recently pulled the seasonal stats for Chicago during past strong and super El Niño episodes. Dating back to 1950, there have been seven seasons that have featured an El Niño of strong to super magnitude. To shed a full light on the situation, I pulled stats both met winter (DJF) and the full October–April snowfall season.

The clearest signal is snowfall. Every one of the seven strong/super El Niño seasons featured below normal snowfall during both the DJF and October–April periods. In several of those seasons, snowfall was significantly below average.

When it comes to precip, it's more of a mixed signal. Both the DJF and October–April periods feature a mix of very wet, near-average and dry seasons.

Temps lean warmer, particularly during met winter. DJF temps ranged from slightly below normal to well above normal, with warmer outcomes more common. During the longer span October–April periods there is more variability, with most seasons within +/- 1° of average, while a couple were well above average.

...Chicago Strong/Super El Nino Seasons...

October-April Average Temp: 38.4°
October-April Average Snowfall: 38.4"
October-April Average Precipitation: 18.12"
Met Winter (DJF) Average Temperature: 28.2°
Met Winter (DJF) Average Snowfall: 29.6"
Met Winter (DJF) Average Precipitation: 6.07"
.............................................................

2015-16 Season (Super El Nino)
Oct-April Avg Temp: 40.6° (+2.2°)
Oct-April Snowfall: 31.2" (-7.2")
Oct-April Precip: 19.80" (+1.68")
DJF Avg Temp: 31.4° (+3.2°)
DJF Snowfall: 16.3" (-13.3")
DJF Precip: 6.94" (+0.87")

1997-98 Season (Super El Nino)
Oct-April Avg Temp: 39.7° (+1.3°)
Oct-April Snowfall: 10.4" (-28.0")
Oct-April Precip: 17.93" (-0.19")
DJF Avg Temp: 33.2° (+5.0°)
DJF Snowfall: 7.1" (-22.5")
DJF Precip: 5.87" (-0.20")

1991-92 Season (Super El Nino)
Oct-April Avg Temp: 37.6° (-0.8°)
Oct-April Snowfall: 28.4" (-10.0")
Oct-April Precip: 19.80" (+1.68")
DJF Avg Temp: 30.5° (+2.3°)
DJF Snowfall: 14.5" (-15.1")
DJF Precip: 3.97" (-2.10")

1982-83 Season (Record Super El Nino)
Oct-April Avg Temp: 38.0° (-0.4°)
Oct-April Snowfall: 26.6" (-11.8")
Oct-April Precip: 31.36" (+13.24")
DJF Avg Temp: 30.9° (+2.7°)
DJF Snowfall: 16.0" (-13.6")
DJF Precip: 11.28" (+5.21")

1972-73 Season (Strong El Nino)
Oct-April Avg Temp: 37.9° (-0.5°)
Oct-April Snowfall: 32.9" (-5.5")
Oct-April Precip: 24.38" (+6.26")
DJF Avg Temp: 28.0° (-0.2°)
DJF Snowfall: 20.0" (-9.6")
DJF Precip: 7.52" (+1.45")

1965-66 Season (Strong El Nino)
Oct-April Avg Temp: 38.1° (-0.3°)
Oct-April Snowfall: 24.7" (-13.7")
Oct-April Precip: 17.19" (-0.93")
DJF Avg Temp: 27.5° (-0.7°)
DJF Snowfall: 20.9" (-8.7")
DJF Precip: 7.32" (+1.25")

1957-58 Season (Strong El Nino)
Oct-April Avg Temp: 37.2° (-1.2°)
Oct-April Snowfall: 20.0" (-18.4")
Oct-April Precip: 11.24" (-6.88")
DJF Avg Temp: 26.9° (+1.3°)
DJF Snowfall: 16.2" (-13.4")
DJF Precip: 3.40" (-2.67")

Overview of the heat wave this past week locally...

...ORD...
September 1st: 95°/77°
September 2nd: 96°/78°*
September 3rd: 91°/77°*
September 4th: 93°/76°*

*Record tied/broken.

...MDW...
August 31st: 91°/72°
September 1st: 94°/77°
September 2nd: 96°/78°
September 3rd: 92°/79°
September 4th: 93°/78°

ORD had a low temp of 76° yesterday, which broke the record high min temp for the date of 74°(1971/1960).

Chicago/O'Hare had a low temperature of 76° on September 4th, which broke the record high minimum temperature for the date of 74°(1971/1960).

Maxed at 93° at both ORD and MDW yesterday.

...2026 90°+ Day Tally...
18 - MDW
17 - RFD
16 - ORD
15 - LOT
14 - PWK
14 - ARR
13 - UGN
12 - DPA

ORD had a low temp of 77° yesterday, which broke the record high min temp for the date of 75° (1973/1953/1898).

Chicago/O'Hare had a low temperature of 77° on September 3rd, which broke the record high minimum temperature for the date of 75° (1973/1953/1898).

Hit 91° at ORD and 92° at MDW yesterday.

...2026 90°+ Day Tally...
16 - MDW
15 - ORD
15 - RFD
14 - ARR
13 - PWK
13 - LOT
12 - UGN
11 - DPA

ORD had a low temp of 78° yesterday, which tied the record high min temp for the date of 78° (1913).

Chicago/O'Hare had a low temperature of 78° on September 2nd, which tied the record high minimum temperature for the date of 78° (1913).

Peaked at 96° at ORD and MDW yesterday.

...2026 90°+ Day Tally...
15 - MDW
14 - ORD
14 - RFD
13 - PWK
13 - ARR
12 - UGN
12 - LOT
10 - DPA

these ssw movers are usually nice
time 2 lock in

Topped out at 95° at ORD and 94° at MDW yesterday.

...2026 90°+ Day Tally...
14 - MDW
13 - ORD
13 - RFD
12 - PWK
12 - ARR
11 - UGN
11 - LOT
9 - DPA

14 hours ago, BeastFromTheEast said:

KLOT 82/82 rn.  Sweating bullets out there to start September 

LOT runs high on DP's more often than not on higher DP days.

Didn't realize how blessed I was yesterday

16 hours ago, IWXwx said:

I read somewhere that a high amount of Saharan sand can knock down the threat and there was a large amount being transported this year. Does this have any basis in fact? 

that has been an issue as well, so sort of double-trouble.

however, the nino alone would create the current situation as well.

18 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

atl cane season seems heading for all-time snoozer status, meanwhile the east pac wants to shit out storms like crazy and it looks like HI gonna have a season for the ages

very el nino-like, so not all that surprising.

especially so considering the magnitude of the nino.

On 8/12/2026 at 5:55 PM, Chicago Storm said:

With the tornadoes confirmed thus far with yesterday's derecho, the 2026 Illinois tornado count has now surpassed 200.

On 8/17/2026 at 2:45 PM, Chicago Storm said:

The count stands at 203.

After getting together with LOT and sifting through things/comparing numbers, the total now stands at 207. 

(Includes 2 newly surveyed tors added today)

On 8/12/2026 at 5:55 PM, Chicago Storm said:

With the tornadoes confirmed thus far with yesterday's derecho, the 2026 Illinois tornado count has now surpassed 200.

The count stands at 203.

Question of the night: Will Chicago (ORD) log another 90°+ day this year?

With the tornadoes confirmed thus far with yesterday's derecho, the 2026 Illinois tornado count has now surpassed 200.

2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

should be a safe miss south for my, not to bummed and will be nice to see the wet get spread around a bit

Looks like I-90 on south, roughly.