Chicago Storm

Low temp of -11 at ORD this morning.

The daytime high temp was limited to -4, but the actual high for the day was 5 at midnight.

The peak wind chill was -36.

7 minutes ago, OHweather said:

RRFS is cheeks

Although NAM is also cheeks in its own ways

Feels like a one step forward one step backward kind of tradeoff (although turning off most of the HREF members and going to the REFS is an additional step backwards IMO)

The whole thing is a shit show, quite honestly.

I get what they are doing and why they are doing it. However, your new model system (RRFS/REFS) really should be much better than your old model system (NAM/SREF), which hasn't had an upgrade in many years.

12 minutes ago, OHweather said:

Just a few random thoughts...there've definitely been small but additive bumps SE over the last several runs of the non-GFS guidance. It's largely been caused by the PV over the Upper Midwest/Plains ahead of the storm refusing to lift out at all, along with subtle trends for perhaps a slower ejection of the storm into the Plains (lets the PV press in more ahead of it) and some lingering run-to-run disagreement over how well the storm phases over the southern Plains. Overall, I don't expect more than relatively small adjustments from here on in, but a quick look at how guidance has been trending and what still could change in my eyes...

 

This is the European ensemble mean 500mb heights for the last several runs valid at 12z Sunday. There still are subtle run-to-run adjustments both with the exact placement of the PV and with how well-phased the trough ejecting into the Plains is...to me, the there haven't been substantial trends either way with the PV while the trough has trended perhaps a bit less phased overall. Heights are still rising plenty ahead of the storm and there may be room for a subtle trend back northwest if we see a better phase, but unless we see trends towards the PV lifting out quicker I don't think it makes a huge difference for those who are on the outside looking in for heavy snow.

 

This is just the 500mb height and vorticity trends from the operational Euro...there are not clear trends towards a more or less phased solution overall, though there may be a slight trend for the trough to eject into the Plains slower, which in theory could give the PV a little more of a chance to press in ahead of it. 

 

The red circles are the main pieces of energy phasing together with this storm...the Baja low and shortwave diving into Canada have not been fully sampled yet, but will becoming increasingly sampled in the next sets of 0z/12z runs. There may be some opportunity for trends regarding how well the storm phases over those next cycles, though my guess is there won't be a significant trend either way. The shortwave circled in blue isn't really phasing into this, but will help dictate how much the PV presses into the upper Midwest/Plains Lakes north of the storm. My guess is we won't see a notable trend with the PV from here on out, though I've been surprised before. 

Overall, I think it's the PV over the Plains that is skunking those who needed more of a NW trend than we got and it doesn't seem like that's changing as the storm becomes more imminent. There is still room for subtle trends based on a quicker/slower phase, though any northwest trends won't be huge. It wouldn't shock me if there's enough bump SE before we're done, though I personally don't want that if we can avoid it... 

solid assessment, as always.

are you still at cle?

the run-to-run changes 'under the hood' aloft are fun to watch on any given model.

see the nam 12z vs 18z, just as a recent example. really struggling to resolve things.

1 minute ago, mimillman said:

Torch 

i have some bad news.

4 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

From our friends at BAM Weather (I know many dont care for them)

Upon deep dives hi-res US models are overdoing the strength of the high pressure in the northern plains. It stems from the GFS as these hi-res models are all inner nested versions of the GFS. This can make all the difference in the world for these fringe locations of snow/sleet/ice/rain! Summed up? ECMWF/GDPS/UKMET is the answer.

Thoughts??

that idea is already a bust, since all other guidance caved to the gfs.

I've sat on this one for a while now, trying to decide.

The only two options I could come up with were the blizzard of '99 and GHD1.

The choice of GHD1 seems easy to me. I feel I'd be able to enjoy it more at this point in life, plus it was more significant in many aspects.

2 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

beavis is thriving in his element right now

doubtful.

not enough snow-cover.

7 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

not our year lol

didn't have you turning into beavis on my bingo card.

it's here

the show had been over up here, but surprised to see the gfs clean house to this degree.

3 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

Where are all these homes?

i have beach-front property to sell you in idaho.

new/current home is in north aurora.

3 minutes ago, mimillman said:

That looks pretty epic tbf. Border counties have done better 

even portions of the metro too.

i'm closing in on 30" on the season at home. back at good ole ex-home, there's a few inches on the ground currently.

2 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

Tth

good times around here.

3 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

This has dtx issuing a wwa then upgrading to a warning after 5 inches is already on the ground written all over it.

would that make them inept?

4 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

But is it just BSing or does it show what it does because it handles the features you were previously mentioning differently in a fashion that still remains remotely possible?

it's more phased and put together out west (compared to all other guidance), as ejection of the southern wave occurs.

likely classic nam shenanigans.

ngl, it would be nice to have one last amped nam run verify, before it's decommissioned (likely in march).

now is it's moment.

3 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Nah it’s fun watching N IL become South Dakota 

if only we had a good prairie dog population.

the funny thing is, re: all of the complaining locally about the current winter...

this is the coldest and snowiest winter we've had in years.

we've surpassed seasonal snowfall totals for the winters of 2024/25, 2023/24 and 2022/23 already, and it's only mid-january.

1 hour ago, Stebo said:

Unlike Joe, I do think Chicago cashes in, but more than like by means of lake effect.

the lake setup isn't all that impressive, tbh.

2 hours ago, Chicago916 said:

Was just thinking about all the budget cuts to the NOAA and how it impacts modeling. I wonder what verification scores are now vs previous years (winter and summer comparisons). Feels like modeling is pretty bad. 

it's not affecting things, contrary to what many thing.

2 hours ago, mimillman said:

These stat padders that vaporize in 2 hours are really not reflective of what has been complete sh*t since mid December 

sounds like you should move.

Dusted again as a result of the clipper last evening...

Final snowfall totals
0.8" - ORD
0.7" - RFD

…2025/26 Season Snowfall...
24.2" - ORD
23.9" - RFD

Show is over around here.

Really needed the northern stream waves and TPV arm in Central/Western Canada to be placed a bit further west.

So close, yet so far.

we were this close to a ghd 1 setup this weekend…