Chicago Storm

500 mb evolution with this does remind me a good deal of a slightly less impressive version of GHD II. Trough/jet streak matures in a very similar way and the thermos aren't terribly far off from that either. More likely to taper out with eastward extent though.

Today’s trend has been to reverse yesterday’s trend.

Yesterday’s we saw guidance come in less phased, less amped and flatter with the main wave…thus, weaker, south and drier. Today’s trend reversed all of that.

Looking over guidance from today, the big thing that sticks out is how much wetter the Euro/EPS are compared to almost all other guidance.
We have seen through the years that the Euro tends to be on the drier side more often than not, and when it is, it is usually close to reality.
So, it'll be interesting to see how it does with being on the wetter side this go-around.

1 minute ago, Baum said:

They’ve been torched badly, as have all of us, with dramatic shifts in guidance within less than 24 hours the past 5 years. This time, they’re boxed in by the holiday so guessing will have to jump the gun headlines overnight if trends hold. And again, given climatology this would be a substantial event for this period in the season. 

Overnight will be 48 hours out from the start in the CWA, so they're going to have to go with a watch with the evening or early morning package.

Looking over guidance from today, the big thing that sticks out is how much wetter the Euro/EPS are compared to almost all other guidance.

We have seen through the years that the Euro tends to be on the drier side more often than not, and when it is, it is usually close to reality.

So, it'll be interesting to see how it does with being on the wetter side this go-around.

4 hours ago, Sciascia said:

You don’t say…

CJ is the worst of the worst.

24 minutes ago, Paulie21 said:

Personally think KLOT is a bit lambish but it is tough to tell for now.

LOT is 100% going to play it safe this go-around, after the single person blunder with the LES event.

500mb evolution on the 12z Euro is…

The NAM is tentatively scheduled to be retired in March 2026.

After a ton of delays through the years for various reasons, we finally have a time. I'd expect it may shift a bit, but the point is, the end is finally near.

As is always the case in good patterns, there two routes that are always of a concern…

Too suppressed or well phased. This one is currently trending towards the latter recently.

NOW it won’t happen.

12z guidance looking to close the book on this one before a thread even gets made

This is our moment 

[mention=147]Chicago Storm[/mention] we need your mid range pattern analysis posts..  seems pattern change is immenet come end of month. 

This was from just a short time ago near home…

I can see the lights even here at ORD currently.

Highest report I've been able to come across is 17" in Winthrop Harbor.

ORD got on the board with the first T and first measurable snow of the new season on Saturday night/Sunday morning, with the hybrid storm system that moved through. A whopping 0.1" of snow occurred (Area reports suggest that was probably a few tenths too low).

ORD picked up 1.6" of snowfall last night/this morning, with the lake effect snow event.

Winter 2025/26 Snowfall Totals
1.7" - ORD
1.2" - RFD

1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said:

Based on how much discussion there was on social media of the NWS snowfall maps with the huge ranges, was that a topic on here and did anyone attempt to address what those ranges represent? I'd be happy to, just don't want to rehash if it's already been covered.

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You know who should be fired for that AFD on Sunday morning.

4 hours ago, Powerball said:

While it was an impressive setup on paper, it's not surprising that it busted for Chicago at least.

Aside from the convective nature of LES, it is much harder to get stationary banding on the west side of the lake.

The thing is, there was stationary banding, two in fact. The issue was more that the core of the metro was just split by both bands, just due to unfavorable positioning. The main-full lake plume ended up too far west (Racine-Kenosha-Waukegan) and the southern lake/meso-low band was too far south (Lake Co, IN to Iroquois Co).

It is looking like downtown, ORD and MDW will miss out on the best of this one.

There are two areas of interest for maximum accumulation totals. Location #1 will be from the Gary-Valpo area down to the Kankakee area, where snowfall is maximized on the backside of the meso-low. Location #2 will be from around Kenosha down to around Lake Forest, where the main single band looks to have found it's spot to park for several hours.

Just now, Chicago916 said:

Some really high DBZ coming ashore now. Likely graupel and more thunder to come

Someone I know has reported graupel.

2 minutes ago, homedis said:

THUNDERSNOW!!!

Right over downtown on the feed.

The massive meso-low currently at the southern tip of the lake is just cranking.

Can't recall seeing something to that magnitude before around here.

One of many… But this particular meso-low earlier this afternoon was quite significant.