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Chicago Storm

Professional Forecaster
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Posts posted by Chicago Storm

  1. Kind of a yikes here by the Euro, no idea why it was so off-base with this event (though some other models were pretty bad too).

    It wasn’t off based, and did the best within 18-24 hours. Sniffed out the south trend and latched on to it.
    • Like 1
  2. Looks like guidance finally has a handle on things, as confirmed by how radar is shaping up. Kudos for the Euro leading the way over the past 18-24hrs.

    There’s going to be one heck of a snowfall gradient from NW-SE across the heart of the LOT CWA.

    • Like 2
  3. 2 hours ago, Baum said:

    Not really. He’s basically saying still a lot of moving parts and not to trust anyone solution. Which is playing out in real time. Note the model shifts just in the last 12 hours. Which is why I complemented LOT. Issued a conservative call but with some flexibility if short term trends change. Looks like 2-4 still in play here in Dupage. I’ll take it and than gladly close the book.

    essentially this.

    just take a look at ens guidance currently, and the range that still exists at this time.

    some ens have a non-event south of the wi/il border, some favor cycloneville for, others favor the mchenry area crew, and there are numerous that favor the metro.

    • Like 4
    • 100% 1
  4. Last Feb was actually a better winter month overall for NE IL/SE WI, but for the entire winter I guess you can make the argument that last winter was worse. Not setting the bar very high here though.

    i shared the stats not too long ago.

    this is our best season in terms of both snow and cold in several years.
    • Sad 1
  5. fun to watch the shift in guidance today…

    much of 12z guidance shifted north, except the euro, which shifted south.

    now, much of 18z guidance is shifting south, and the euro has doubled down to shift even more south.

    zero surprise over any of this.

    • Like 4
    • Haha 2
  6. 3 minutes ago, RemoteSenses said:

    Anyone not believing this is going further and further NE - yall are cray crazy. No hope left here.

     

    1 minute ago, RemoteSenses said:

    Literally not a single model expect the recent NAM moving it SE.

    I’m being realistic. If you’re south of mid Wisconsin or Mid - Michigan you can enjoy a rain storm.


    .

    doc, did you switch accounts?

    • Like 3
    • Haha 1
  7. ICON almost looks like a nonevent lol. Parts of Wisconsin still get slammed, but it's without a doubt weaker and north.

    not really north.

    you get that illusion due to the changes in the precip field, which is caused by different interactions aloft.
    • 100% 2
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