Chicago Storm

Tornado OTG.

Big Motion.

This wants to plant one.

Near Pontiac currently.

i’m pulling for the gfs, just to rain (snow) on doc’s parade.

21 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

bump.

 

bump x2.

i like the moderate risk, i like a 10/15% tor. my only thought would have been to increase hail probs as well.

not often i give the spc an atta boy, but here you go.

Been down intermittently all morning. Everyone checking where that warm front is at. 

ready for some stones

23 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Fair question - should have been clearer. I'm talking snow totals over the next 10-15 days, regardless of the individual storm threats.

I saw some ensemble info in the TN sub-forum a few days ago, showing some big dogs for our area. Of course, that's good and bad...bad because the ensemble mean can be skewed by a couple of outliers. 6z GEFS from 3/7:

there's still a good spread, but a majority are a quality hit along/north of the border currently.

bump.

Murky fog here

Today was a fluke, but it goes to show why the new SPC format is flawed trash.

The science is currently not good enough and never will be good enough to set a min/max on hail size, wind speed and tor strength in outlooks and MD's.

^that's violent, to say the least.

https://x.com/Ham_BklynWx/status/2030018538727956893?s=20

9 hours ago, King James said:

June - September has become the only tolerable stretch here in Chicago

Rest of the time just cold and windy with a few nice days here and there

poor take.

30 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said:

"quite a few" is doing a lot of work in that sentence. you did get a lot of LES a few winters ago in that one storm that missed the NW burbs and you got lucky again this year in a similar setup, and we all got a good snow in November last year, but I honestly don't recall a single other "big dog." of course, i don't know what your criteria for that wording is, but imo, it has to be double digits. I do recall 16-17 being a miserable, practically non-existent winter after the first two weeks of December. I also remember getting screwed in 2015 by the warm lake in the November storm where O'hare still managed 11" - of course, that is over a decade ago at this point (hard to fathom tbh). 

Edit: Just remembered February 2018 was rocking for a week, while I was in Mexico. smdh. 

you forgot this one...

2 minutes ago, DocATL said:

Looks like a good opportunity for Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, and Michigan to get some late season snow. Prospects for ORD hitting its average is dicey.

alek is in your head too much.

12 hours ago, DocATL said:

This is one of the more remarkable aspects of this winter. To go potentially 7+ weeks with one very light duster from early February to the later half of March.

kinda unremarkable, if you dig into chicago weather history.

it happens more than you think, that is a lack of snow during winter months at times. i'm not just talking recently over the past few years either.

12 minutes ago, Powerball said:

 

Has there been a Spring where that doesn't happen?

Even 2012 has a hard freeze in April... 

essentially.

March 2012 (53.5) was warmer than April 2012 (50.7) in Chicago.

Very bad
Warm and wet turning into nw flow and cad

big-time model guidance fail for today's event, and even in event performance was horrendous.

where upwards of 4-8" of snow occurred, the hrrr had only a dusting and the euro had only 1-3", for example.

statistical information on winter in chicago, since the historic winter of 2013/14...

like i've said, this is the snowiest and coldest season we've seen in years.

More than 1.1 inches of snow in February is not unrealistic.

I thought we were talking about the winter not February.