Chicago Storm

Flipped to ice pellets here a bit ago.

Probably 0.1” of accumulation or so.

Looks like guidance finally has a handle on things, as confirmed by how radar is shaping up. Kudos for the Euro leading the way over the past 18-24hrs.

There’s going to be one heck of a snowfall gradient from NW-SE across the heart of the LOT CWA.

Just had a very close CG hit here at home.

Shook the house, and rearranged pictures on the wall.

2 hours ago, Baum said:

Not really. He’s basically saying still a lot of moving parts and not to trust anyone solution. Which is playing out in real time. Note the model shifts just in the last 12 hours. Which is why I complemented LOT. Issued a conservative call but with some flexibility if short term trends change. Looks like 2-4 still in play here in Dupage. I’ll take it and than gladly close the book.

essentially this.

just take a look at ens guidance currently, and the range that still exists at this time.

some ens have a non-event south of the wi/il border, some favor cycloneville for, others favor the mchenry area crew, and there are numerous that favor the metro.

On 3/13/2026 at 12:10 PM, Chicago Storm said:

i wouldn’t get comfortable with anything just yet (good or bad).

it’s a very complex evolution overall.

yep.

Last Feb was actually a better winter month overall for NE IL/SE WI, but for the entire winter I guess you can make the argument that last winter was worse. Not setting the bar very high here though.

fun to watch the shift in guidance today…

much of 12z guidance shifted north, except the euro, which shifted south.

now, much of 18z guidance is shifting south, and the euro has doubled down to shift even more south.

zero surprise over any of this.

Yeah, it’s been almost as bad as last winter for N Illinois. Chicago barely saw an inch of snow in February, kind of pathetic tbh.

Does Chicago get more snow from this WAA snow than the actual storm? That's the big question lmao

6 minutes ago, RemoteSenses said:

Enjoy your wishcasting brother. I respect the hope you’re holding onto.

i'm hoping for something?

3 minutes ago, RemoteSenses said:

Anyone not believing this is going further and further NE - yall are cray crazy. No hope left here.

1 minute ago, RemoteSenses said:

Literally not a single model expect the recent NAM moving it SE.

I’m being realistic. If you’re south of mid Wisconsin or Mid - Michigan you can enjoy a rain storm.


.

doc, did you switch accounts?

ICON almost looks like a nonevent lol. Parts of Wisconsin still get slammed, but it's without a doubt weaker and north.

Peak wind gusts from last night and this morning...

64MPH - ORD
60MPH - MDW
62MPH - RFD

i’m surprised we haven’t seen see some random op run keep the main wave more consolidated as it digs, and close it off further south as it goes negative tilt, leading to a ghd1 level solution further south.

i saw a few ens previously do that a day or two ago, but wanted to see the lolz from an op.

4 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said:

SPC already has a 45% area for Day 3 in S IN, S IL, and W KY. 

has forced squall line/qlcs, with damaging winds and embedded tors written all over it.

2 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

86 mph gust at KMIE. Multiple semis blown over on I 69 south of FWA.

that's top tier for a synoptic wind event in this region.

13 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

like 6 people live in the UP, thread quite active considering it's DAB for most areas people live

it is, and that's good to see.

i've said before that the folks up north need to create threads and post more often.

2 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

Any thoughts on whether the snowfall in the Upper Midwest overnight and this morning could tighten up the baroclinic zone and help the cold push a bit further south than currently modeled? Or any type of impact of the new snow cover on the various moving pieces in general?

I guess we'll see it in the 18z runs, if there's any truth to this.  I know it's weenie rule #500, but why not. 

2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

 

as usual name of the game is complex wave interactions (especially so with this) and baroclinic zone largely irrelevant imo

just be glad we're hanging onto good consensus for the rapid deepening in our backyard which can often hold surprises

 

this set-up, with the secondary quick-deepening slp, isn't really a baroclinic zone rider.

the path it will take will be fully dependent on wave ejection/interaction/phasing.

2 hours ago, Chicago916 said:

I've sensed cautious optimism from you lately. I still think it's strange given the moving pieces we haven't really seen any large swings in guidance. I guess modeling isn't that terrible then

i wouldn't say that i'm optimistic. it's just more-so knowing that nothing is locked in yet (even if some seem to think that it is), and interested in seeing how it all pans out.

10 minutes ago, Weather Mike said:

I wish there was more posts like the NE threads. This is a huge storm and its like crickets in here and if this was the NE thread it would be page 10000 by now. Just sucks living in the Midwest with the lack of enthusiasm as there is a lack of expert opinions and discussions to learn from by underlinks like me 

one of the main issues is that we just don't have a ton of people that live up in the portion of mn, wi, and mi that are a lock for the goods.

and the ones that we do have - have chimed in with their interest.

Most likely scenario is the storm cuts directly over Chicago (basing this on morning trends anyhow). Feel like we have a bit more of a consensus now, but definitely still room for some slight shifts.

i’m surprised we haven’t seen see some random op run keep the main wave more consolidated as it digs, and close it off further south as it goes negative tilt, leading to a ghd1 level solution further south.

i saw a few ens previously do that a day or two ago, but wanted to see the lolz from an op.

House across the street has had some shingles ripped off.

G64MPH ORD and G70MPH GYY.

G64MPH UGN.