Chicago Storm

That's all fair, but the pattern itself technically provides the highest ceiling for big dogs on the East Coast? Whether they occur or not is the question or whether they peak offshore. Just not seeing anything that would pull this pattern into one favoring more inland tracks or cutters like panhandle lows or colorado lows. 

I think they do have a favorable set up for this coming weekend....at least a shot unless it goes OTS.   After that a clipper pattern sets up for the sub, with several, (seen as many as four forecasted on some models).   Then the trough retros further west and the sub might be open to something bigger?

I’m talking more-so through current time, that it has not been an East Coast pattern thus far. I probably should have been more clear with that.

With the pattern expected to relax a bit coming up to end the month and begin February, during that timeframe the East Coast definitely holds the best chance for a bigger event.

The pattern looks to shift and re-load deeper into February, bringing more widespread chances of something better. Until then, we’ll probably be in clipper mode, unless a surprise hybrid pops up.

2 hours ago, Chicago916 said:

Excuse any of my ignorance but how is this pattern not an "east coast pattern"?

Seems like we're stuck in a NW flow in the middle of the country now and only the East Coast can get lucky when the Sub tropical jet wants to cooperate?

So clippers for us and occasional favorable flow for LE (soon to end with lakes freezing though?)

 

Not a good look out West with so much ridging and lack of meaningful mountain snows. Could equate to drought concerns there into Summer without runoff?

ORD has picked up 8.7" of snow over the past two weeks, thanks to several clippers + LE. It may not seem like a lot, but we are now sitting at average snowfall for the month of January. Other areas in NE IL and the metro have received even more than that (Up by the border & along the lake).

Did the East Coast rack up a big snowfall this weekend? Sure, but so did a majority of the subforum. A foot of snow fell 4 hours from here.

If it were an East Coast pattern, none of the above would be reality.

Lake effect saved the day...

Also, an honorable mention of 5.9" at MDW CO-OP.

Final snowfall totals
4.4" - ORD
T - RFD

…2025/26 Season Snowfall...
28.6" - ORD
23.9" - RFD

Just now, Cary67 said:

Hopefully LES totals didn't skew ORD official numbers too much

ORD snowfall total was 3.5" at noon, but more was added.

21 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

It is, shame it’s not in Foxboro

the game likely would have been moved, unfortunately.

2 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Denver Seattle sb?

pats/seahawks.

Some synoptic enhancement right now, but that aside, that's a quality shredded multi-band look that we just don't see on this side of the lake very often.

METAR KORD 251651Z 34012KT 3/4SM R10L/5000VP6000FT -SN VV015 M11/M13 A3010 RMK AO2 SLP208 SNINCR 1/3 P0000 T11061133 $

This could end up being the most widespread-significant nearly pure multi-band LES events that I can remember on this side of the lake...

The multiple meso-lows of earlier tonight have sort of morphed into a main one now, which is attempting to back towards MKE.

Looks like mixing has gotten further north than anticipated down-state, just south of Carbondale-Harrisburg.

Low temp of -10 at ORD this morning.

Lake enhancement is doing work downtown.

Looks like about SN 1/2SM on the EarthCam.

29 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

You think they drift west enough to make it on shore?

I do think that it'll move further onshore.

The main question more-so is how far onshore it'll move and how long it will take up residence in a particular area.

Multiple meso-lows out over the over the lake. That southern one is potent.

Lake enhancement is coming onshore in the immediate downtown area currently.

Just now, cyclone77 said:

He's not the one who forecast 12-18" there earlier this season was he?

he is not.

Just now, DocATL said:

Hrrr says cancel WWA

the hrrr also says no snow till midnight or so.

in reality, it's already about to start snowing, albeit light.

it's struggling with the saturation progress.

38 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Come on everyone, it’s not a competition. The best outcome would be for the entire lower 48 to be covered by snow and ice. Then we’d all be happy. 

i'd prefer 97/75 and an evening bow echo, thanks.

Low temp of -11 at ORD this morning.

The daytime high temp was limited to -4, but the actual high for the day was 5 at midnight.

The peak wind chill was -36.

7 minutes ago, OHweather said:

RRFS is cheeks

Although NAM is also cheeks in its own ways

Feels like a one step forward one step backward kind of tradeoff (although turning off most of the HREF members and going to the REFS is an additional step backwards IMO)

The whole thing is a shit show, quite honestly.

I get what they are doing and why they are doing it. However, your new model system (RRFS/REFS) really should be much better than your old model system (NAM/SREF), which hasn't had an upgrade in many years.

12 minutes ago, OHweather said:

Just a few random thoughts...there've definitely been small but additive bumps SE over the last several runs of the non-GFS guidance. It's largely been caused by the PV over the Upper Midwest/Plains ahead of the storm refusing to lift out at all, along with subtle trends for perhaps a slower ejection of the storm into the Plains (lets the PV press in more ahead of it) and some lingering run-to-run disagreement over how well the storm phases over the southern Plains. Overall, I don't expect more than relatively small adjustments from here on in, but a quick look at how guidance has been trending and what still could change in my eyes...

 

This is the European ensemble mean 500mb heights for the last several runs valid at 12z Sunday. There still are subtle run-to-run adjustments both with the exact placement of the PV and with how well-phased the trough ejecting into the Plains is...to me, the there haven't been substantial trends either way with the PV while the trough has trended perhaps a bit less phased overall. Heights are still rising plenty ahead of the storm and there may be room for a subtle trend back northwest if we see a better phase, but unless we see trends towards the PV lifting out quicker I don't think it makes a huge difference for those who are on the outside looking in for heavy snow.

 

This is just the 500mb height and vorticity trends from the operational Euro...there are not clear trends towards a more or less phased solution overall, though there may be a slight trend for the trough to eject into the Plains slower, which in theory could give the PV a little more of a chance to press in ahead of it. 

 

The red circles are the main pieces of energy phasing together with this storm...the Baja low and shortwave diving into Canada have not been fully sampled yet, but will becoming increasingly sampled in the next sets of 0z/12z runs. There may be some opportunity for trends regarding how well the storm phases over those next cycles, though my guess is there won't be a significant trend either way. The shortwave circled in blue isn't really phasing into this, but will help dictate how much the PV presses into the upper Midwest/Plains Lakes north of the storm. My guess is we won't see a notable trend with the PV from here on out, though I've been surprised before. 

Overall, I think it's the PV over the Plains that is skunking those who needed more of a NW trend than we got and it doesn't seem like that's changing as the storm becomes more imminent. There is still room for subtle trends based on a quicker/slower phase, though any northwest trends won't be huge. It wouldn't shock me if there's enough bump SE before we're done, though I personally don't want that if we can avoid it... 

solid assessment, as always.

are you still at cle?

the run-to-run changes 'under the hood' aloft are fun to watch on any given model.

see the nam 12z vs 18z, just as a recent example. really struggling to resolve things.

1 minute ago, mimillman said:

Torch 

i have some bad news.

4 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

From our friends at BAM Weather (I know many dont care for them)

Upon deep dives hi-res US models are overdoing the strength of the high pressure in the northern plains. It stems from the GFS as these hi-res models are all inner nested versions of the GFS. This can make all the difference in the world for these fringe locations of snow/sleet/ice/rain! Summed up? ECMWF/GDPS/UKMET is the answer.

Thoughts??

that idea is already a bust, since all other guidance caved to the gfs.