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Chicago Storm

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    Winter 2025-26 Short Range Discussion

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    NWS Pants down again:
    INCLUDING THE CITIES OF LODI, SAUK CITY, WAUKESHA, PORTAGE,   GRAFTON, MADISON, CEDARBURG, MILWAUKEE, MENOMONEE FALLS,   DODGEVILLE, WATERTOWN, PRAIRIE DU SAC, MUSKEGO, MAYVILLE, BEAVER   DAM, JEFFERSON, WEST BEND, HARTFORD, LAKE WISCONSIN, MINERAL   POINT, BARABOO, WAUPUN, MEQUON, REEDSBURG, BARNEVELD, FORT   ATKINSON, BROOKFIELD, GERMANTOWN, NEW BERLIN, AND COLUMBUS   809 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026       ..WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY     * WHAT...SNOW. 1 TO 2 INCHES HAVE FALLEN AND ADDITIONAL SNOW   ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH TOTALS APPROACHING 3 TO 5   INCHES OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.     * WHERE...PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.     * WHEN...UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY.    

    not sure why either.

    most guidance actually did very well in handling that narrow corridor of snowfall.

    Winter 2025-26 Short Range Discussion

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    For those who prefer not to bash given the challenges of these, there was a debate in the office when I was about to leave re. SQW. It's not as simple as just pushing a button.

    There's a specific criteria for visibility of less than one quarter mile that wasn't really being met at the ob sites as the squall moved through areas farther north. For that reason, there was active discussion including Gino Izzi (lead forecaster), our WCM, and the other lead that had just arrived on the best way to handle things. I personally weighed in on the side of issuing a SQW for downstream areas right before I left.

    From a lead time perspective, I'm happy I put out a SPS at 4:50am when it wasn't exactly clear how it would go and a graphic heads up. We also made a social media post last njght that gave a heads up. I thought something like this might be possible, if you read back to AFDs from past few early mornings, but this definitely overperformed and has been a top tier squall for this area.

    Ultimately, yes, we could have issued a SQW earlier that included the rest of the metro, but I think we gave a heads up about adverse conditions and got some lead time with the SQW for the south burbs and points south and east. For very tough forecasts, you win aspects of it, lose some, and learn and apply it to future similar scenarios.

    Thankfully the roads weren't too bad for most of my drive back home - only starting getting worse traction once almost into Naperville from north Bolingbrook.









    to be clear, i’m not hating on the lead up… few to none got that right.

    i’m hating on the in the moment.
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