Chicago Storm

4 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

I'm talking strictly about the essence of what is shown in model land and not focusing whatsoever on any other day-of issues like moisture or mid-upper level flow orientation, etc etc.

Neither of those are really "day of" issues though. 

Odds are there will be some sort of severe in the Plains towards the first days of May...



Still a long way out obviously, but that should be the first potential...with more at or just after mid-month and beyond.

LR GFS, but it shows it as well...




.

See you in June.

I'll just put this right here...

Still 4-5 days out, but things are trending less favorable with time for anything decent on Thur/Fri.

7 hours ago, StormChaser4Life said:

What site did you get those euro graphics from? I have a subsription to weathermodels now but not impressed

Looks like weatherbell.

.

Is there potential, yea.

But it's too far out to get too interested, especially given several fail options on the table.

On 4/1/2018 at 5:37 PM, Hoosier said:

Chicago Storm gets an orange tag... on April Fools day.  Hmmm

Just kidding.  Congrats man.  

April fools!

Oh, wait...

It will be a lot more US residents than recent decades, that's for sure.  After the long drought of totals in the CONUS, yesterday marked the start of sort of a golden age of eclipses with 4 totals (including yesterday) in a 28 year span. 

Temp change at Carbondale, IL (KMDH) was well defined...

This I-57 traffic is EPIC in duration.   I don't think I've gone more than 100 miles in 6 hours of driving.

Good Lord traffic is bad.  Interstate, state road, doesn't matter.  Definitely much worse leaving this thing than driving in.

Tom Skilling definitely enjoyed it...

https://www.google.com/amp/wgntv.com/2017/08/21/wgns-tom-skilling-watching-the-eclipse-is-the-sweetest-thing-youll-ever-see/amp/

Man that was great.  But too short.

Made it all of the way down here before realizing I forgot to get eclipse glasses. Luckily was able to score free ones at the Waffle House of all places.

The eclipse was definitely one of the more interesting and awesome experiences I've had.

Ended up having brief totality where I was southeast of St. Louis. A cool experience...Watching the eclipse occur, it gradually getting dark, and the shadow waves before/after totality. Also seeing a few of the brighter stars/planets around totality, and the 360 degree sunset-like sky.

Definitely will be in position for the 2024 eclipse and a greater period of totality.

No shelf, but some Undulatus asperatus on the way down...

Left earlier this morning and forgot my Canon battery, so had to go back for it.

Been back on the road though, near Dwight now. 3hrs 15min out from the east side of STL.

Probably will hit the Central IL MCS on the way down, which has a shelf cloud. So a little bit of everything today.

Probably will be some pop up storms down south during eclipse time. Pulling for that elusive shot Hoosier mentioned before.

Probably will get up at about 6AM and see what the cloud/MCS situation looks like. Fairly pessimistic on things right now.

I'm not too optimistic, but still holding with near Carbondale as my target. Nearby areas are a backup option, but I'm not gonna drive deep into MO or KY for it.

Right now I plan on heading downstate to around Carbondale for the eclipse.

If precip/clouds are an issue down there though, might have to deal with a near full eclipse up here instead if conditions are better.

0z GFS with the best looking potential of the season, with two quality Plains days next Wed/Thur.

While it definitely looks like there will be severe in the Tue-Sat timeframe, potential multiple waves with non-stop convection and meridional flow issues are concerning at this range.

A few tors reported with the storm NW of Hyannis, NE.

Nice couplet with the tor warned embedded supercell well SW of Faith, SD. Nice tor warned storm NE of Alliance, NE as well.

TOG recently with that storm NE of the AMA area...