Chicago Storm
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Comparing the 0z DVN sounding to the 0z RAP and 0z NAM for that location, they are running ~2C too warm at 925mb.
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To prove my point, these pictures below were just taken in Steward IL... .
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One thing to consider for portions of SE IA and N IL, is that many locations still have ice on trees (etc) from the first storm. Around here there’s still a solid glaze on trees, and I’d guarantee areas well to the W/SW that picked up 0.25-0.50” of ice definitely have more on the trees. Could lead to more sig issues overall out that way. .
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RAP and HRRR probably have the most sig overall solutions. .
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Might be the best overall combined snow and ice model run, but probably a bit overdone in both aspects. .
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he’s falling apart now that everyone else finally figured out his game. .
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lol .
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tth. .
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Micro screw zone doesn’t mean it was right. GEM was clearly the best overall. .
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RGEM/GEM/UKMET are all well SE for the next system. Euro has been bumping SE. Ride it. .
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Ended up with ~0.20” ice on top of the 3.4” of snow. .
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Pouring FZRA here, with a glaze on all surfaces already. 30/24 currently. .
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This is the GEM from last night. That’s about as good as it gets... .
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Which means we're golden. Thanks.
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The LAF effect.
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3.4” of snow here. Had a period of legit +SN at one point. Turned to sleet here about an hour ago under the lighter returns. .
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What model did the best with this system (not the NAM), does not mean it would do as well with the next. Each scenario is different.
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Delayed but not denied...The snow/mix line has finally been making steady northward progress, near I-80 in IA/IL now.
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Best radar presentation in a WAA event in quite a while... .
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+SN here. TSSN in Lee Co.
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Extensive +TSSN...
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+TSSN in Montezuma IA area for over 30 minutes now. .
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Training +TSSN into the Montezuma area, within that main advection plume.
