Chicago Storm
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Everything posted by Chicago Storm
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where's threat #2? mine didn't produce, yours needs to.
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0z GEM a bit wetter across E IA/N IL, and many other areas to the S and SE.
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It's also wetter, with 1.40"+ precip at ORD. It did run a bit too wet with the last storm system, so chop a bit off and it's still respectable.
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0z GFS is actually wetter across N IL.
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The good news is that the ARW/NMM/NSSL WRF all are much wetter and snowier than the NAM/3KM NAM. Usually wouldn't mention them much in the winter, but might be of some use this go around.
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RGEM is drier as well, across IA into NW IL.
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probably looking at a dab+.
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The NAM trending drier makes little sense looking at things. For example, PWATS are the highest on a NAM run yet, in excess of 0.80" up to DVN.
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0z HRRR, obviously discounting the overdone LE. .
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0z HRRR moves precip into some areas faster than other guidance, including Chicago metro. Has a dusting in some areas at 3PM.
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21z RAP .
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https://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/ .
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have you checked on the CRAS?
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He’s on tonight I believe. .
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18z GEFS Mean .
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18z RGEM back snowier .
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he’ll flip 5 more times at least. .
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No reason to be. .
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This storm system is not going to have the same sig/widespread convection further south, as the last storm system did. Also, moisture transport is great. PWATS were actually higher on 12z NAM than previous run as well. So no, there will be no moisture transport issues this time around. .
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3km NAM is a crusher, with 6-10” falling in 6hrs at one point... .
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6z EPS Mean .
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6z Euro bumped north and a tick wetter for many areas. .
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Hoosiers RAP has 6-8” down by midnight Sta night/Sun morning. .
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Kind of noise level, as it was a bit south west and a bit north east. .
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que up eurythmics.
