Chicago Storm

Don’t get attached to that one for next weekend. The setup is even more complex than the current one.

ORD ended up with 0.3" of snow with the disturbance last evening/night. Up to 5.6" of snow on the season.

live by the thread, die by the needle.

he's doing something i (and others) were yelled at for saying happens in every winter thread.

The July 15th derecho easily was the top weather event of the year around here, and it probably was the top weather event in general in many years.

understatement. however, locally, we’re ahead of where we were with both snow and cold compared to last winter at this point.

2024 finished as the warmest year on record for Chicago. Record Warmest Year's 1. 55.0° - 2024 2. 54.5° - 2012 2. 54.5° - 1921 4. 54.1° - 2023 5. 54.0° - 1931 6. 53.5° - 2021 7. 53.5° - 1998 8. 53.3° - 2020 9. 53.2° - 1953 10. 52.9° - 1954

2024 finished as the warmest year on record for Chicago. Record Warmest Year's 1. 55.0° - 2024 2. 54.5° - 2012 2. 54.5° - 1921 4. 54.1° - 2023 5. 54.0° - 1931 6. 53.5° - 2021 7. 53.5° - 1998 8. 53.3° - 2020 9. 53.2° - 1953 10. 52.9° - 1954

Key here is “potential”. Still a lot that can go right and a lot that can go wrong with this type of setup and still being 5 days out.

There’s been a big shift in the evolution of things aloft on most guidance over the past day or so. Gone is the several piece phasing across Canada down into the US, and it has been replaced by a far less phased gyre of a wave, which tracks more W-E across the Western and Central US, before running into a wall and rapidly shearing out. That’s the main reason you’re seeing a shift towards a weaker, earlier sheared, and further south tracking storm system. The thread is splitting when trying to thread the eye of the needle, and the current trends are not optimal.

i’m jonesing for a derecho on a 90° evening myself.

key point: i don't care what you think of me. but, since we're on that, it's clear that others share the same sentiment re: "michigan woe is me". so, thanks for enforcing that even more.

everyone's favorite past-time.

it has been as advertised.

that’s not how it works.

The lowest 2-3kft temp/dew point (Wet bulb) levels are into a sub-optimal range. The NAM is colder/drier in the lowest levels, thus has the most snow modeled (Easily).

Whether or not there’s a storm system in the timeframe in question, that’s happening either way after. This is a one and done shot.

There’s a very small window of opportunity for a legitimate thread the needle chance, leading into the expected significant Eastern US/Canada troughing. We’ve seen countless opportunities similar that have fallen apart well in advance or just don’t produce. So, I wouldn’t put down any money that it’ll happen, but there’s at least a chance. The OP Euro modeled evolution is essentially the perfect/best case scenario…with the GFS not far off.

to be fair, ohweather did toss up a post about a week ago regarding things. though, what he mentions is easily 2+ weeks away still.

slant sticked that rating, for sure.

C-

Final event snowfall total of 2.2" at ORD and 2.5" at home. ORD is up to 5.3" of snow on the season now.

Ended up with a decent little glaze at ORD. ASOS reported 0.05” of ice. Got home and had an hour-long burst of SN/+SN, which totaled 1”. Increased forcing and lake enhancement combo leading to solid returns around the MKE area currently. This should translate southward into the Chicago area for a few hour period this morning.

Brief burst of +SN here at ORD with this WAA wing of precip moving through, which produced a quick 0.5" of accumulation. It has since turned over to -FZRASN, with a light glaze of ice on colder objects.