ldub23

Jb says its coming back.

JB is concerned.

Still rather slow for peak season. Very likely what was a strong cane a few days ago on the Euro will just dissipate.

Yet the impression is the season is slow. Both the GOM and east coast low are still trending weaker, hardly worthy of peak season when things were supposed to be so favorable. The Azores thing no one cares about. The 2 out in the east atlantic will either dissipate or bebop north.

I wouldnt call this active for peak season, especially with a la nina. The east coast low and GOM low both look very weak. The MDR hurricane looks for now to follow Larry.

That would be interesting. Hurricane off the coast being pulled rapidly north by a trof. Its weak on the model but next run it could be stronger, or disappear.

Weak for peak season. Ventrice is beating Webb

This idiot seems to agree with me. I said a month ago Sept would be suppressed. We are all often wrong including those who said the pattern in the peak season was "ominous" for the east coast. Turned out just the opposite.

GFS and EURO still say i am right. Horrid conditions.

True, but the GFS up till now has been very enthusiastic about this possible low. Its tough for anything to get too strong near the US when low pressure is locked over the NW ATL.

Good news is the 18z GFS is much weaker and shows a cat1 into LA.

Atlantic still barren with horrid conditions. GFS dropped the cane off SC but stil has a monster in the GOM. Euro has rain showers.

GFS shows some weak action in the GOM in 10 days while the euro has this: Here is the gfs. GOM cane and a weak cat1 forming off SC Couldnt ask for a more different scenario. If everyone wants please vote on which one will happen.

The Euro and GFS seem to disagree with you. Atlantic barren at peak season.

England?

JB jumps on the dead sept train. I didnt think it would happen when the consensus was the east coast was at risk. Just the opposite pattern set up. Either a recurve or just too hostile for anything. My guess is the negative NAO will reverse just in time for winter however. Joe Bastardi@BigJoeBastardi·1hJuly 27 made forecastfor hyper August in tropics. I think we can agree it had merit. Well now some good news! Opposite pattern setting up so September much less active relative to averages as far impact, Does not mean nothing at all, but relative to averages less than Aug

I read that and figured JB would be all excited and be tweeting away. I checked and as usual when he sees nothing to tweet about he has a bunch of past hurricane tweets.

Just delayed a month. Larry is about it and i dont really care about recurvers, sort of like mid atlantic snow lovers dont care about blizzards in Manitoba.

Cool. Except for a recurver to nowhere sept is quite dead on the models. Unless a strong high builds into the NW ATL and stays locked the season is pretty much over.

Just delayed. Sept looks to be rather slow even with a strong recurver.

Still dont think "it" deserved to be named.

Totally mystified as to why it was named.

They are seriously calling that totally devoid of convection thing a tropical storm. They really are trying to jack up numbers.