LibertyBell

the problem is "high impact" is too nebulous. The potential for damaging coastal flooding and high winds and also the phase of the moon (new moon coming up) also adding to coastal damage was also mentioned and these would be issues with either of these tracks.

thats basically what he said lol....actually it's word for word almost lol. The thing people don't seem to understand with snowfall totals is there's a 10x variance in snowfall amounts vs rain (with a 10:1 ratio), so in reality what's a small difference is greatly magnified. I'm just glad that we probably won't have any mixing issues here. Anything else is fine by me.

of course but thats true of any forecast.

Shows how you can get radically different people coming out of the same HS. In the end I believe Sagan will be a much greater influence on the future of human society than Friedman.

He also said that the GFS has been trending towards the Euro and that the orientation of the trough makes a closer to the coast track much more likely today than it was yesterday.

GFS is also 6+ inches from eastern parts of the city on east. It would be irresponsible not to make people aware of the dangers. Underpreparing is much more dangerous than overpreparing.

love that Atlantic ridge for this one.

Correct- it is ever evolving and changing and its dynamic nature reflects our changing knowledge, if anyone has problems with that they should just look at what our level of technology was in the 80s compared to today lol. Where do people think all that new technology came from? Evolving science of course. Science and technology are intrinsically linked. Congrats on the science family-- I bet they'll do better than the previous generation did. I think the best communicators in science were guys like Carl Sagan, who were both professional writers as well as scientists. Carl Sagan was exceptional at communicating science, maybe the GOAT (along with Isaac Asimov, who I would also put up there with him.)

He should just say not holding back energy like it was before....further east and more progressive will confuse some people into thinking the storm itself will be further east and more progressive.

Saying 6+ is fine. I remember that was the forecast for PD2 a few days before the storm.

Yep, and this is endemic in the scientific community. Communications is a huge issue in science and it's why we see society behaving the way it does.

snow totals can only be reasonably forecast a maximum of 48 hours out. The best thing this has going for it is that there is no chance of any mixing here

optimism is better than pessimism. Basically what he said is that all the models are trending towards a major impact. The best thing this has going for it is that there is no chance of any mixing here

Yeah 0z and 12z runs are always the ones to favor. Highest skill scores in the NH

why are people complaining? It has 6 inches of snow from eastern parts of the city on east....this is exactly where you want it to be at this stage.

Conservatism is the way to go, especially this far out. But they also complain that no one listens to them because this is a social media world now

Basically yeah, that's what a pro would say.

It's only like thousands of times we've seen this scenario play out before and H5 always leads the way. I'd want for surface changes to wait for the 0z run anyway because of its higher skill scores.

H5 improvement always leads surface impacts.....0z could be amazing. Thats the most accurate run historically anyway.

Eastern NE also has a much higher chance to change to rain

Lee Goldberg is already honking on this storm, saying the chances are getting stronger that this will be a high impact event for our area with two days of snowfall 60+ mph winds and lots of coastal flooding.

NAM has been deadly with east coast storms, remember Jan 2016.

I think we should name this storm Hercules, because he was the step son of Juno (Hera in Greek mythology-- wife of Zeus), and no matter how much she tried to ruin him, Hercules triumphed at every labor she put on him.

It's basically like a PRE....Lee Goldberg was just talking about this and said the snow will move in early just like it did with Boxing Day

EE combination is the best modeling combo of all time.