LibertyBell
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Everything posted by LibertyBell
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Look at all the cold we had in the late 1800s....if we had an even more complete climate record going back to when NYC was first settled, would any winter after 1917-18 be in the top 20?!
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1976-77 was mediocre for snow though....one bonus of the new pattern is much less suppression and more bombing of coastal lows so more snow. That kind of extreme cold isn't good for snow in our area.
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My Winter Outlook for 2022-23
LibertyBell replied to raindancewx's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
-nao is more of a cold signal for the south than it is for us in the northern midatlantic and northeast. It's good for slow moving storms with near average temperatures for us. -
My Winter Outlook for 2022-23
LibertyBell replied to raindancewx's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Right several recent winters have shown there is a disconnect between extreme cold and snow, you don't need it to be very cold to get snow. Not only that, extreme cold can be a deterrant to snow, as the 80s proved, with their much colder Januarys and very little snowfall. -
Our first accumulating snowfall was a 4-5 incher a few days after Christmas (must have been the same one), I remember thinking it was a really good sign to get a storm like that in December and we had two storms a week for the rest of the winter, even though only a couple were all snow, we still ran out of salt that season!
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2014-15 was more backloaded though and more pure snow vs 1993-94. Winter basically started around Jan 20 and continued until Mar 20.
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in 2010-11 the snowpack somehow stuck around for the better part of two months though and shattered some records. That was the most snow I've seen on the ground at one time here on the south shore in my 40 years of living here.
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But then again you could say the extremes can go in either direction-- 2009-10, 2010-11, 2013-14, 2014-15 and 2017-18 are proof of that.
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Yeah and 2009-10 and 2010-11 lol
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Winters like 2009-10, 2010-11 , 2013-14, and 2014-15 spoiled many people. I'd put 2017-18 in that same category, even with the mild February. It can happen but it's rare, if you get it once a decade you're lucky. We've had it way more than we should so expect a return to our once a decade type decent winters.
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I'm not sure how much enso factors in, as I think you can find mediocre to bad winters in all types of enso. If you did a strict enso based breakdown of our under 30" snowfall winters (what I'd consider mediocre), I bet it doesn't matter whether you have a la nina, el nino or neutral, the majority of our snowfall seasons in all types of enso would be in that mediocre or less category.
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At least it will snow in the mountains-- that's where it's really supposed to snow.
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They are elevated after all. There's a reason you want to be in the mountains to see snow fall. Looks like my Poconos place is going to get some mighty fine skiing!
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Could you imagine if we had competing astronomical models and one showed us getting hit by an existinction level event asteroid and the other one showed us getting whiffed by a few thousand miles? That would be comical if it wasn't such a serious situation! While other sciences have gotten better at predicting, it seems like meteorology has stagnated in the last decade or so.
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I think he does it for egotistical reasons. You can tell by his smile lol.
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Thats horrible! I'm talking more along the lines of when the temperature gets below 50 the heat MUST go on. I'm very warm blooded, I need the heat to be somewhere between 75-80.
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It doesn't come close to matching "Jonas" Jan 2016 though on the NESIS scale. And the NESIS maps for Jan 2016 are underdone and it's still the third best KU event on the list (I'll put it ahead of March 1960 and right behind January 1996 and March 1993.)
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The storm last January was a lot better for us than Nemo, though the heaviest snows were also east (and south of us), got over a foot in it so not complaining lol.
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Yes like last winter, the big snow fell to the east of NYC (but better than Nemo here since we also got in on it.)
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Wow most of the dates on that list went below zero, I believe 1/19/85 was the last time JFK went below zero and it was also the last time we had a high in the single digits wasn't it? And look at Jan 1977 with 4 days in that list lol. And how did we get an extreme block like that in August in 1956?
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2017-18 was so interesting, we had that arctic cold and bomb blizzard in early January and then we had another extreme block with more snow in March and April. February was the only mild month that season. That was "the other" kind of La Nina.
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aka wishcasting
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These models should all be contracted at 10 days and none of them should be allowed to run beyond that.
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Tambora would have been even better.
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That's amazing that both Allentown and JFK had their largest snowfall (and both 30"+) from the same storm! They are so close in latitude, that has to be the reason why-- you can actually draw a straight line (well in a map projection lol) from Allentown to JFK. But what I was actually trying to ask was-- was that JFK's first measurable snowfall of the season and is their total from the storm a record for the first snowfall of the season?
