LibertyBell

I like that, maybe we can create computer simulations to analog years and add in things that might be different like marine heatwaves in the West Pac, Pac Jet being faster, AMO switch, etc. And then see how accurate the simulations would be in terms of temperatures and general storm tracks (not exact snowfall totals of course.)

How much of a correlation do you think this pattern had to 2013-14, taking into account the faster Pac Jet, AMO switch and CC? I would say not more than 50%, what do you think, Ray?

what kind of storm was this-- a noreaster with marginal temperatures for the coast? when we were mixing early on I had nightmares of March 2001 lol.

I like this because our heat comes from the west. Another hot summer like this happened in 1983, look how wet that year was and yet it was our hottest summer on record before 1991 and 1993. For JFK it held the record until 2010! Look at September 1983 we had 6 days of 90+ including a 96 as late as 9/11.

Well I don't like the word *luck*, because it implies magic. I think we can use logic to explain everything. In this case we're just switching to a much drier cycle (Pac Jet + switching of the AMO) which will continue for the time being. It has happened before and will happen again.

They're not identical though, even removing chaos from the equation. We are in a much different precip cycle than we were in the early 2010s and this (I conjecture) is because the AMO is switching to a drier state and of course the acceleration of the Pac Jet. If you go back to August and move forward you see that the drier pattern was already established.

But the downstream effects are different depending on how we achieve that la nina or cool ENSO state, right Ray? Ditto for el nino or warm ENSO state (in the opposite direction)?

Yes, we are results oriented.

The tropical season's large scale suppression during the peak of tropical season echoed the large scale suppression of rainfall and snowfall we have seen since last August. I think this is a shot across the bow of a switch in the AMO state to its drier state like we had during the 80s. Many similarities to that decade are now happening.

Listen to this bozo speak https://x.com/RapidResponse47/status/1902701079965380999 @SecretaryWright : "Net Zero by 2050 is just nonsense. It's an activist thing, and it's a top-down, big government justification to do mostly anti-human things... we will follow the math and the science and be honest about the tradeoffs here... If you could reduce greenhouse gas emissions without raising prices or reducing human freedom, that's a big win — and that's what the rise of U.S. shale gas has done." at least the British are much funnier.... https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1902344491060613313 NEW: Reform MP Lee Anderson asks Keir Starmer how much the Earth's temperature would drop if the UK hit net zero tomorrow Starmer: "Net zero is of course not easy, but they'd have better ideas if they stopped fawning over Putin" #PMQs

I rank it with April 2003, we got about the same 6-8 inches in both storms. So maybe once every 15 years we get a storm like this? Those two storms prove snow can definitely stick well in April as long as the snowfall rates are high enough. April 2003 was an all day snowstorm!

I saw a snowfall map somewhere that showed even the NJ coast got 6-8 inches, we got screwed from both directions lol. NYC got screwed in the April 1996 snowstorm like that too, but at least we got 4-5 inches here near JFK in that storm.

Yes, starting next week.

NYC might go all four months DJFM without even hitting 70, has that ever happened before Chris? It must have happened at JFK several times before because of the sea breeze.

I love April snows, March snows always disappoint because we always expect more, but April snows are more cherished because you know it's the last one.

and the first half of April too, although the forecast for Spring as a whole (MAM) is still above normal, which means that it's probably going to be really warm for the second half of April and May?

Yes we need a high sea wall to keep that out.

Looks like March projections for temperature are dropping, Don?

on sunny days it's easy to hit 60 because of how high the sun is.

Yes, it would have been a truly warm March if we had made it to 80+ at least once. Thats my benchmark for a warm March.

Now this was a real March snowstorm (similar to the March 1956 and March 1967 snowstorms.)

Wait this can't be right, NYC did not get 4.2 inches, all of us got 8-9 inches out of that storm.

The April 2nd storm?

it was mostly a mixed precip event for us. My favorite storm in that pattern happened in April.

4/1/97 was a huge bust, we were supposed to get 8-16 inches but got 1-2 and Boston got 30 inches. That was like the 2004 ALCS