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LibertyBell

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Everything posted by LibertyBell

  1. LibertyBell
    Mine is anywhere within 25 miles of the ocean.
  2. LibertyBell
    Remember 2014? ;-)
  3. LibertyBell
    wow that makes it sound like an early spring event. Would rates also factor in-- the higher the rate the more chance it will be snow (and also if it occurs mainly at night?)
  4. LibertyBell
    at the same time we can't use the entire climate history of every station either though because these are varying periods for different places so it would be an apples to oranges comparison (for example comparing Central Park to JFK airport, one's period of record began in the 1860s while the other's began in the 1950s lol.) So I think at least doubling that recorded history period to 1950-onwards makes sense because most of our reliable airport stations began keeping records in the 1950s.
  5. LibertyBell
    I dont like 30 year averages either, it's a very arbitrary number to use.
  6. LibertyBell
    Maybe Bald Hill will get significant snow lol
  7. LibertyBell
    Theoretically if that's the case then the amount of snowfall could vary a lot based on elevation. There are hills in northern Manhattan and also on Staten Island that could get snow while the more commercial areas get rain?
  8. LibertyBell
    What was going on before that showed a more suppressed track for several runs?
  9. LibertyBell
    I hope it's like 92-93 then, that was a fun winter with a lot of noreasters, even though many of them were mixed events it didn't keep us from enjoying the snow. 93-94 had a lot of mixed events too but was much colder and we had a historic February. I wouldn't mind that either, even if it's not as cold as that season was. You don't need a lot of cold to get a lot of snow.
  10. LibertyBell
    Honestly, I don't think people would care if we got like 4-6 inches of snow and then rain. Some people can be silly with their snow perfectionism (I'm guilty of it sometimes too), even if it's a 4-6 inch snow storm with rain after that-- it's still a snowstorm for us and that 4 - 6 inches of snow still counts! We had several storms like this in the 80s and early to mid 90s (including in 92-93 before we transitioned to much heavier snowfall winters) where we got 4-6 inches of snow and then heavy rain after that. It didn't keep us from enjoying the snow of course. Maybe this is a transitional year where we get average snowfall like 92-93 was and then we get a few much heavier snowfall winters like what happened after that season?
  11. LibertyBell
    We are in a long term -PNA state aren't we? These last about 15 years? Because we seem to be getting inland runner or hugger tracks no matter the ENSO state now. It's useless to "hope" for a different Pacific state because this is the dominant state in this part of the cycle regardless of ENSO. The same was the case in the 80s.
  12. LibertyBell
    first snowfall in 2 winters actually if you go by the 1" per day stat
  13. LibertyBell
    I don't think he's a denier though (I think he stated that he understands the rate of change proceeds at different rates in different places.) I like more complete datasets too, and I think 1950 onwards is a good period to use since 1950 is when most of our records began to be kept in a more reliable way (it's also the beginning of the satellite era.)
  14. LibertyBell
    why doesn't anyone ever think of covering their snow piles with tarp?
  15. LibertyBell
    Looks like the Southern Poconos just north of Allentown should do well here.
  16. LibertyBell
    48 hour rule is much better for it
  17. LibertyBell
    I thought the initial danger was the storm being suppressed lol
  18. LibertyBell
    Thanks Don, I've always wondered why very cold weather Thanksgiving week (after a mild November before that) often leads to our best winters.
  19. LibertyBell
    Why is snowman19 weenieing everyone? Not only are they talking about this in the ENSO thread too, this is what the models show and all our TV forecasters are saying the same thing.
  20. LibertyBell
    and El Chichon! That was the largest of all of the recent ones.
  21. LibertyBell
    I would rather use since 1950, but we know that all of these methods are imperfect because none of them shows a complete climate picture. *the reason I would use 1950 as my starting point is that is when many of our airport records began and also when we started having a complete record of ENSO data.
  22. LibertyBell
    The bugs really freak me out. So these new insects we have that are eating our trees (lantern flies), the media is reporting that having these new giant Joro spiders coming up here from the south is good because they will eat the insects? Does anyone in their right mind think it's a good idea to have giant spiders up here? I certainly do not. I hope it does snow next weekend and it ends the possibilities of any of that happening.
  23. LibertyBell
    Is this reminiscent of 2011-12, Chris?
  24. LibertyBell
    well we've had a nice run.... I can say it's been a privilege and an honor to experience so many top 10 and top 20 winters, and even the ones at the bottom were interesting in some way because they too were historic.
  25. LibertyBell
    Wow this is so peaceful and serene. Is this considered a lagoon?
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