LibertyBell

Noway, it takes me 3 hours to get to NE PA. There is no part of PA that's less than 3 hours away from here.

Yes, I remember something like this during the early 90s too-- was it 91-92? There were two back to back 4"+ snowfall events after a snowless winter near the spring solstice.

The funny thing about el ninos is that it's usually the ones with the snowy December that are the best in terms of snow overall. Examples are 2002-03 and 2009-10.

But we also have to deal with the fact that when the first half of winter has less than 10 inches of snow, March is often also not snowy. 08-09 did have quite a bit more snow at this point in time.

More than 50% chance NYC finishes with less than 10 inches of snow and no 4 inch snowstorm.

he's talking about shortening wavelengths changing the way that the la nina affects the east coast. you are correct too though, March isn't as snowy when the first part of winter isn't snowy.

Our two most snowiest enso states though are weak el ninos and weak la ninas.

08-09 bears a lot of similarities to what you are talking about-- the last week of February and the first week of March were very snowy. January was very similar to this month too. March 1st had the best snowstorm of the entire season and the only true coastal snowstorm.

la nina pattern is cold in December and January and warmer after January. examples of this are 1995-96, 2008-9, 2010-11. la ninas after el ninos are exceptionally cold in December and January-- 1983-84 is another great example

Yes, lets hope they get a lot more rain going forward

Weird, I went to Boston on Amtrak and it never seemed that far away. I guess because I look at Boston as two states away (CT and then MA) while DC is four states away (NJ, PA, DE, MD). There was only one stop in between on Amtrak going to Boston from Penn Station-- New London, CT.

But our weather does not really match any of the other cities, even Philadelphia, who often get hit by snow that misses us to the south. The distance between Philadelphia and NYC is about the same as the distance between NYC and Boston, I think? I think we'll be above normal too, on the strength of perhaps hitting 50 or even being in the lower 50s on Wednesday.

We can hope for a February 2008 type storm later in the month, that was also an SWFE in a warm pattern and yet it dropped 6-8 inches of snow.

the la nina was also the reason for the cold December-January this is just normal la nina weather we have seen several times before.

1772 - Possibly the greatest snowfall ever recorded in the Washington DC area started on this day. When the storm began, Thomas Jefferson was returning home from his honeymoon with his new bride, Martha Wayles Skelton. The newlyweds made it to within eight miles of Monticello before having to abandon their carriage in the deep snow. Both finished the ride on horseback in the blinding snow. The newlyweds arrived home late on the night of January 26th. In Jefferson's "Garden Book," he wrote, "the deepest snow we have ever seen. In Albermarle, it was about 3. F. deep." wow how much snow fell in DC in this one, Don, more than the Knickerbocker storm of 1922? 3F= 3 feet? 1987 - A winter storm spread heavy snow across the Middle and Northern Atlantic Coast States, with 18 inches reported at Vineland NJ, and wind gusts to 65 mph at Chatham MA. Snow cover in Virginia ranged up to thirty inches following this second major storm in just one week. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) Big southern NJ snowstorm, it happened again in February 1989

whats the normal La Nina progression, Chris-- cold in December and January and milder in February? I want to see if the average temperature in February is higher than it was in December

We look to be in the *near normal* zone, Don. It's quite apparent we're not in the Mid Atlantic, but we're not in New England either.

it's bad out there, I intend to be outside as little as possible until the weather warms up. what you have sounds so awful, with all the blisters you mentioned I thought at first you had chicken pox.....

factory farming is unhealthy unsanitary and immoral and needs to come to an end. so glad I stopped all that nonsense years ago. 100,000 ducks had to be killed at a duck farm out on Aquebogue, it's absolutely tragic.

I'll go slightly higher on both +3 with 4" of precip February and March will likely both be wet and then we will go back to the much drier pattern in April and beyond.

we will probably have just one shot to get it done, we need a February 2008 type 6-8 inch event.

+2 is very doable. +5 maybe not.... I'd say +2 to +3 you can still get a lot of snow with +2 to +3

warmer after the 2nd

I remember when we were going for the record in 1995-96, Newsday put an article up about comparing it to the best winters at Upton and that was the winter 1995-96 was shooting for (and blew away by more than 15 inches thanks to that snowstorm in April.) The things that make 1966-67 really stand out is it came at the end of a historically dry period and after our hottest summer on record to that point, the previous winter was an el nino that heavily favored areas south of us, and the winter got started off right with one of our snowiest Christmas eve storms on record. The period from February through March was also historically snowy (30+ inches in each month at Upton) and featured Long Island's latest below 0 reading (close to the vernal equinox.) There were no HECS blockbuster snowstorms that winter but we did get over a foot of snow in an event in February and an event in March.

well the Sunday through Wednesday period can be considered a thaw, we'll be in the lower 50s by Wednesday. But the real thaw will be in February. Our winters are usually better when we have the thaw in January and reload rather than February anyway.