LibertyBell

we should finish below normal here. I don't know how Islip is so warm lol

wow it's been very wet in the Poconos! today is my birthday so thanks for the YTD right to my birthday Chris!!

It could be the last very warm day of the season, I see my forecast as mid 80s. We have not been warmer than low 80s since the first half of August, it has nothing to do with the ocean as the flow has been NW most of that time and low humidity, good sky conditions.

AMO state is flipping to negative and it's pretty clear now.

all I can say this is MUCH better than the high humidity and flooding rainfalls we were getting year after year. It looks like the cyclic change back to a 1980s type pattern has finally happened.

so glad to return to a 1980s type of pattern

it could be a cold and dry winter like last winter was.

Don, geoengineering is going to have to take place on a massive scale. I see you mentioned the rising sea levels and what the result would be if all the polar ice caps and glaciers melted. The planet is 70% covered by water right now, how much more would be covered by water if all that ice turned liquid? To be honest, we have way too much more water on this planet than we need, at some point, the only way to save our coastal cities will be to transport some of that water to space colonies in orbit and on the Moon and Mars (and wherever else we might colonize where water will most definitely be needed.) How quickly would we be able to do this (perhaps developing new technology like space elevators). This is obviously something that will take many decades to develop, perhaps not until 2100 and beyond.

Yes, otherwise we would be going into a 70s/80s type of inactive period right now.

The intriguing thing about last year which is being repeated to a more extreme extent this year is the long period of inactivity when you expect things to be very active. It was the tropical equivalent of a book end season, with big activity early and later in the season. Do you have a monthly breakdown of tropical activity from last season, Larry? Thanks!

Chris is that 41 the season low to date for MPO?

You have to look at specific periods like the near the peak of the season. The active period was early and late, but tropical activity was nonexistent at the time it was supposed to be busiest. We had a complete shut out of all rainfall here in October. We had the same Saharan Air Layer / dry air intrusion into the tropics, and it's only become even more extreme this year. All the forecasts for a historically busy season completely busted and we ended up with an average season.

I've been talking about this return to an AMO- since last year lol. Both hotter extremes and colder extremes and drier weather-- I LIKE!! Are you switching around to my view that we are now headed directly into an -AMO even if it doesn't show it on indices? Two years in a row with drier summers and falls and lackluster or nonexistent tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic. I think we might be headed to another dry and coldish winter, just like last winter too.

Both hotter extremes and colder extremes and drier weather-- I LIKE!! Are you switching around to my view that we are now headed directly into an -AMO even if it doesn't show it on indices? Two years in a row with drier summers and falls and lackluster or nonexistent tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic. I think we might be headed to another dry and coldish winter, just like last winter too.

Both hotter extremes and colder extremes and drier weather-- I LIKE!! Are you switching around to my view that we are now headed directly into an -AMO even if it doesn't show it on indices? Two years in a row with drier summers and falls and lackluster or nonexistent tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic. I think we might be headed to another dry and coldish winter, just like last winter too.

The arguments I see politicians making is we need an all energy source approach to control costs because most people are concerned about energy costs above all else. I saw this being mentioned in the NJ gubernatorial race. To be honest, Mikie Sherill is a very poor gubernatorial candidate and if this is the best the democrats can do, no wonder they have such low approval ratings. If I have to hear *navy helicopter pilot* one more time, I'm going to destroy my TV, she might as well be a network traffic helicopter pilot for all I care and for all it has anything to do with running a state.

the only real dip we had was in 2020 during the pandemic, when not coincidentally, air and water pollution also got much less.

whats causing the increase in consumption Don? something that no one likes to talk about but is a fundamental problem with society today is population growth. I know it's not as much of a problem in Westernized nations but it's most definitely a problem in the Developing world. The UN estimates the population will stabilize around 11 billion in 2080 and they'd better be right, one of the major reasons for all this usage of energy and resources is the earth simply cannot support a human population more than about 11 billion-- it's the carrying capacity of humans on the planet.

2010 really spoiled me

Was that the July 4th when we had really blue skies? My favorite.

The Poconos definitely got into the 30s, do you have a low temp for MPO Chris?

those usual warm spots are way hotter than the rest of us, but I hold with my previous assertion, summer came to an end after mid August

this dry weather is absolutely wonderful

enjoy the dry stretch, we had more than enough rain last weekend why do people want rain so badly?

As I said MANY weeks ago, summer basically came to an end after mid August.