LibertyBell
-
Posts
36,391 -
Joined
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by LibertyBell
-
and trains too
-
Don, is December our most quickly warming month?
-
I'd also like to know how the average would change if we threw out December 2015. Warmest December I have ever experienced-- December 2015 Coldest December I have ever experienced-- December 1989 Interestingly, neither saw much snow!
-
December 1989 is a textbook example of cold and dry or cold followed by rain followed by more cold. It would be funny if DC saw more snow this winter than we do.
-
Maybe someone just needs to get him drunk
-
He's also wrong, what was described isn't *suppression depression* You want to see suppression depression? That's February 1989 or the first storm in February 2010.
-
Ugh no it's not-- you would do well in that set up. And in case you didn't realize it, YOU LIVE ON LONG ISLAND. Some stupid political border doesn't change the fact that Brooklyn and Queens are geographically part of Long Island! In that January 2022 storm everyone seems to love to reference, Brooklyn got about a foot of snow!
-
no it actually happen a lot, you didn't live through the 80s. cold and dry Januarys were the norm.
-
we had this all the time in the 80s, see my previous post to see how it happens
-
Thats not how it usually works though. What usually happens is when the weather is cold it's also suppressed. In between cold shots we get a cutter and rain. It can be a -3 January with 4 inches of total liquid but 80% or more of that is rain.
-
The sun this afternoon melted some of the snowcover here, went from 80% down to about 60% by sunset.
-
Don when did the December so-called average temperature become so high? I distinctly remember December average temperatures being around 36 only a couple of decades ago.
-
depends on what people consider a great pattern. I'll set my markers as follows If we get at least 4 storms of at least 2-4 inches of snow and single digit cold in at least two outbreaks I'll be happy. We already had one of those 2-4 inch storms in December. That would be better than either of the last two winters by a long shot.
-
and no HECS or above 29" winter between 1983-84 and 1991-92
-
It's easier to predict cold than snow most definitely. As far as NYC is concerned, at peak cold, I think single digit temperatures are a high probability. Not 0 or below because that's very rare anyway but 5 or so might be a reasonable possibility.
-
It would be nice to place some benchmarks for the type of cold we might see. I notice you often use NYC and ATL for your benchmarks. I'm not familiar with ATL climo but as far as NYC is concerned, at peak cold, I think single digit temperatures are a high probability. Not 0 or below because that's very rare anyway but 5 or so might be a reasonable possibility.
-
This is why it's safer to assume we'll see a few 1-3 inch events like we got in January 2009 rather than some blockbuster event, especially in such a fast flow pattern. It's not a matter of luck but of the actual pattern regardless of the state of the indices.
-
HO HO HO How long has the sun been out for you
-
just need to correct that they got 2002 backwards
-
also need to factor in the lag effect of the solar max for upcoming winters
-
Not only that you are actually getting winter during peak climo winter rather than waiting for February, this is a lot better than the torch Decembers we get in el ninos
-
Maybe by January 20, but at least we can have a wintry period when the days are shortest and when we have our peak climo coldest weather.
-
This might be controversial, but I'd rather have a La Nina than an El Nino. El Nino winters torch early and seem to enhance the effects of global warming. Thanks to La Nina we at least got a cold and somewhat snowy holiday period. I'll take this over a torch December and praying for a fluke January/February blizzard which is what you need to get to normal snowfall in an el nino. This is MUCH better.
-
Ed, I saw that the skies were clearing out by you early on, the sun only came out here about 20 minutes ago so maybe that delayed the melt here a little. Merry Christmas, this is the most wintry it's felt around Christmas in a few years.
-
thank la nina I hate torch Decembers
