LibertyBell

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It just sucks when when you have the weight of stupidity at the one end of the boat that has the hole while all those who know know better have no choice but to be

  ON THE SAME BOAT

that's probably why the rich guys want to leave the planet John.

33 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I really hope not. We're already getting lows in the 80s here in PHL. I can't imagine living through lows of 90 and highs near 110.

I went less humidity but more heat.

1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

 

 

Not sure I buy that. It looks like a 5-period moving average is near the maximum for 90-degree days at both LGA and EWR, with the LOESS curve predicting the highest value of 90+ days in the POR at both sites. Looks like we are on the precipice of a big upswing in heat. Even a small additional increase in 90+ days would likely push your area outside of historic norms.

Also, as I have noted numerous times, the heat spike from 1986-1995 very likely an artifact of the data collection due to the defective HO-83 sensors in use during that brief era. The increase in 90+ days matches up temporally with the proliferation of HO-83 units. After installation of ASOS, the 90+ days rapidly drop back to pre-1986 levels, from which they have since steadily climbed.

The impact of the HO-83 cannot be dismissed a small bias. It was a substantial bias, the magnitude of which varied by site. At Lincoln, Nebraska, it averaged nearly 2F warmer than the ASOS, although at times, it could be as much as 7F warmer.

See: Central Region Technical Attachment 93-07, Comparison of ASOS and HO83 Temperatures at Lincoln, Nebraska from November 1991 through October 1992, George H. Grosshans, NWS Lincoln (1993).

it goes beyond that, look into the gap in 100 degree highs at JFK, it's been increasing, currently we have set the new record for the longest gap in 100 degree days in station history.  Ever since 1966 the gap has been growing larger.

The oceans do absorb the heat but hopefully that is about to come to an end and JFK will once again get 100 degree days with a shorter gap like we used to before.

The other sign is the complete absence of 7+ day heatwaves since 2002.  These were more common in the 70s, 80s and 90s but we haven't had a 7+ day heatwave in NYC since 2002 (when we had two) and 1999 (when we also had two).

1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Rains not dissapointing in SW Nassua. Basically training consistent moderate with a few heavy bursts. Easily over an inch.

ended here before 2 pm

I can understand things being canceled Sunday, the Yankees game was played after a rain delay and it rained for much of the game, but Saturday was a mostly sunny day here and nothing should have been canceled that day.

1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

It was more about things being needlessly canceled because people use weather apps. We all saw that coming.

Its super dark here right now!!!

Do these weather apps have radar on them though? They really should not be canceling anything unless something is about to hit the area within the hour.

It's been raining pretty hard here for the last 30 minutes or so.

5 minutes ago, Sundog said:

To be fair, a bunch of models did not have this heavy batch rotating through the NYC area right now. 

It was shown more east. 

I thought we'd have most of our rain tonight, so this is a bit of a bonus.

19 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

About to rip on the island. This batch coming in from the south means business. Should drop a quick inch. Rates in these setups often exceed radar depiction.

Yeah I don't get all the whining, it's raining when it's supposed to be raining.  It wasn't supposed to rain that much over the weekend anyway.

16 minutes ago, Sundog said:

That southwestern edge of the heavy rain will have to move a bit SW on this map judging by the heavy batch about to spin into NYC and LI. 

it's raining pretty steadily here

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

It was as if we crossed an invisible threshold in 2023. Perhaps the oceans just reached the point where they could no longer absorb the excess heat anymore. Almost like filling a glass with water and not seeing much of an issue until  it starts spilling over the rim. So the excess heat is being released into the atmosphere instead of staying put in the oceans. Non-linear or threshold effects usually only become known once the barrier has been crossed. This is the risk of treating climate change solely as a linear gradual process which has lead to climate complacency. 

 

 

lol this is weird, do you realize I wrote the exact same thing you did but in the ENSO thread?

Nature's forms of balancing may well be saturated.  They are the only thing that held back a Venus type runaway greenhouse effect.  That dam may have broken.

23 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

and I just wonder, when the next warm ENSO phase arrives, what kind synergy results happen that next time.   Does this set the stage for another 2023 global phenomenon.. Bear in mind, 2023 temperature event ( at an entire planetary integrated scale!!) was worse than unprecedented ... it was utterly not predicted by anything unaided foresight, or technological assisted human vision.

That event is more than a mere geological enigma.  It's a silent doom siren ( to me ).  

This is intuitive ...but scratch calculations, with the assist of AI,  only lend credence to the idea. 

In order to raise 1 cubic meter of ocean water by 1 degree Celsius, you need approximately 4,200 joules of energy.  

The oceans have ~ 3.6e+12  KM of surface area, which M is thus 3.6e+15 (3.6 quadrillion) square meters.   In an (at least...) quick albeit gross assumption, the top 1 cubic meter of the oceans are virtually coupled to the thermal state of the atmosphere due to ongoing noise of turbulent exchange averages of the whole planetary system. Using that conceptually for our calculation implies  3.6e+15  X 4,200 joules = somewhere in the neighborhood of 1.5e+19 .. Just because it's fun to hear this in dialogue ...
fifteen quintillion joules of energy.   And, that all took place in basically a 45 day span back in late March to early May ( check that - ) of 2023. 

That was just the ocean.  

The atmosphere behaved in a similar delta during those 45 days, not lagged , which is an extra special creepy "omg-ism" in its own right - the whole system, ocean and air, SIMULTANEOUSLY surged by 1 deg C ( note, these are approximations for/in conjecture but in principle, we're conceptually correct).  That part is a particularly troubling, non-intuitive observation.  The contemporary understanding is that the atmospheric, vs oceanic system, are "QUASI" coupled - which means in laity that they only seem to be coupled, but really aren't at the point observation.  Time is required in the total exchange thermal engine of the total system. Such that over time, the oceans store/lose temperature from multiple sources, then, non-linear feedback processes, over time, effects the atmosphere, and vice versa.  They are not suppose to unilaterally "explode", simultaneously.  There's been a lot of floated insights and studies - not criticism whatsoever. However, I haven't read anything that specifically addresses what took place from this kind of approach - and personally, I am 100% confident that answering question is more paramount, particularly when adding that "...it was utterly not predicted by anything unaided foresight, or technological assisted human vision"  Because even to the laity ... that means we don't see or know the land mines along this path to destiny. 

Be that as it may ...  let's include the atmosphere's contribution to the energy - obviously this has all likely been calculated million times ... to far greater confidence precision than all this but I'm just having fun here. 

To raise the temperature of 1 cubic kilometer of air by 1 degree Celsius, approximately 1e+12 joules of energy is required. 

Just using the troposphere (lowest layer) of the total atmospheric volume, there is 6e+12 (trillion) cubic meters of atmosphere down here (we'll also assume for concept-model a well mixed temperature rise too place through the tropospheric depth).

So ... 1e+12 joules X (6e+12 cu meters)/1000 => 6e+21 ... six sextillion KJ of energy added from "some unknown source", to the atmosphere, between late March and early May of 2023

The ocean and atmosphere together is too close to that six sextillion KJ number to really report that as 6.015e+21 so just take the larger numeric expression. 

Comparing this to the all of the nuclear arsenal of the world being unleashed, all at once ... according to AI assist, the U.S. alone has a total 5.3e+18 yield if the total cache were expended (2000 devices).   I don't know what the Soviets have, and China has, and India ...or other capable nations bring to the table, but just for argument's sake, this number may be tripled.  I'm getting tired of looking this up for the course of this thought experiment - which is based on approximations and less fully vetted anyway... but, 3(5e+18)  works out to 1.5e+19 ... if perhaps just a quirk of error, notwithstanding, this is same eerie value as that 1.5e+19 from the oceanic contribution arrived to from above. 

Given that the margin for error in the assumptions of metrics going into this little arithmetic/thought experiment could be +/-  2 or 3 orders of magnitude, that puts this imm abv number into a similar value as the 6e+21 ... Basically, what we observed in 2023 is like a complete commitment global holocaust's worth of a footprint.   Maybe merely symbolic to say ... but this "symmetry of doom" really is a pretty terrible optic that argues humanity's been playing with dad's end-game-gun for a long while. 

paradoxically, all those nukes going off at once would actually be a good thing if looked at through the lens of climate change, as it would result in a sudden and immediate drop in temperatures.

On 4/29/2025 at 10:40 AM, Typhoon Tip said:

np ...

frankly, I begin to think the PI distinction may be less meaningful since ~ 1998 anyway; since, the curve's become less linear and more exponential.   That changes things, because something is happening endemic to these last 2 or 3 decades.   It's really like we need to change the narrative to "since pre super NINO 1998" 

The pre Industrial aspect is like a built in reminder that the 'momentum' in anthropomorphic forcing began when civility converted to an industrial format, but it appears some sort of trigger for feed-back induced synergistic heating is more recent, and dangerous once you get into non-linear responses.   We know PI began this - though the laity doesn't.  You know, in some quantum sense of it, probably really began when the first lesser hominid picked up a burning stick and light dawned some 300,000 years ago.   The curve was likely not linear all along, but to a close approximation, predictions based upon would be relatively well behaved. 

Case in point, the 2023: a whole planetary systemic temperature surged.   If a 1930s sci-fi writer conceived that in 2023 a temperature burst at a planetary scale would take place, it would probably be integral in a d-day plot.  When is the next unseen thing going to happen, and wtf is going to be when an entire planet farts.  Now that it has really happened...  guess were juts in it and not knowing if we're going to win it.

science fiction writers are smarter than most people and have been incorporating this into their stories (as well as environmental collapse) going all the way back to the 1920s.

17 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I'm definitely not an expert in your climate. It's actually confusing to me. It's simultaneously too snowy and not snowy enough for an outsider to understand, if that makes sense. I don't see nyc as having a true wintry climate, but I also don't see them as being a 1-snow-a-year climate like the south.

It's interesting to note that if you compare the 1875-1900 period to the 2000-2025 period, east coast cities are generally 3.5-5° warmer in 2000-25 than 1875-1900, while lower Great Lakes cities are generally 0.5-2° warmer. Clearly winter has warmed more on the east coast. That's likely a contributing factor to the feast/famine snowfall and why many of your largest snowstorms have occurred this century.

While I'm no fan of warmer winters, I've noticed a trend locally that's encouraging- more dynamic snowstorms during warmer winters than there used to be. Always prefer colder winters, but it would be nice to have that in the back pocket. But I REALLY hesitate to place any bets on future decades, and that's what my main disagreement with you is. You may be wrong you may be right....but we won't know for a long while.

the reason coastal areas have warmed more is because the oceans are heatsinks.

We're very lucky the oceans are there to do that, otherwise the entire planet would have become like Venus already.  It might yet one day anyway when the oceans become so warm they are completely saturated with heat.

On 5/2/2025 at 1:34 PM, TheClimateChanger said:

I think some people are missing out on how much warming has occurred globally since the 1990s. Just look at the UAH temperature data [which uses a 1991-2020 baseline] and the 1990s look as warm globally as the 1800s used to look in the 1980s & 1990s, which to me suggests as much warming occurred in the last 25 years as had occurred in the preceding 100+ years.

It's interesting how much the ocean has sucked up the heat which has stopped the increase of 90 and 100 degree heat which peaked in the 1990s (with another peak from 2010-13).  The earth is trying to balance out humankind's excess by dumping the heat into the ocean, let's see how long that lasts.

The rain might be great for some veggies but my newly bloomed red roses look all mangled right now.

6 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

one of my favorite summers of all time....13 and what an incredible year and music and days and days of watching mtv and then going outside doing what 13 years old do and coming in at night with air conditioning downstairs to watch endless amounts of music videos

I was turning 10 years old and we had just moved into a new house and I was enjoying the central air and our big back yard with large pine trees and acorns lol where I played ball.  Great memories!!

1 minute ago, SACRUS said:

 

61 / 59 misty.  Ugly two days 1 - 3 inches depending where you are as the ULL cutoff moves through.  Temp break Wed with some sun.  Trough slides south into the northeast cut off later Thu through Sat AM with the next round of rain. A nice Mother day looks on tap. Beyond there the period 5/10 through mid month looks near normal before potentially more ridging into the week 20.

 

why are we getting so many cut offs, this belongs in March lol

3 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Manhattan radiates really well, I am not surprised you dipped into chilly temps.

Just wait til we get to Friday and Saturday when we might be in the 40s at night.

43 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We had one of the wettest springs on record in 1983 with extensive basement flooding in Long Beach. But the entire Eastern US had a very dry summer. So it can only take a few weeks during peak summer heating for drought conditions to develop when it doesn’t rain. Plus you have to take into account the source region of the heat which is moving into the area. 2011 had the worst drought since the dust bowl in Texas which extended up into our area through most of the East. If the whole region surrounding our local area is dry, then the drought feedback will affect our temperatures also since the flow is from those dry areas.
 

 

September 1983 was a classic hot extended summer wasn't it, Chris? 6 days of 90+ including a 95 degree day in there on the 11th? This was after it hit 100 at JFK in August.  Why does it look like it was below normal for the month of September on Long Island though?

20 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

well duh, nothing showing.

Next meaningful rain will be tonight.  It's not a bad pattern at all, just wish it was sunny during the day, it can rain all it wants at night.

40 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We had one of the wettest springs on record in 1983 with extensive basement flooding in Long Beach. But the entire Eastern US had a very dry summer. So it can only take a few weeks during peak summer heating for drought conditions to develop when it doesn’t rain. Plus you have to take into account the source region of the heat which is moving into the area. 2011 had the worst drought since the dust bowl in Texas which extended up into our area through most of the East. If the whole region surrounding our local area is dry, then the drought feedback will affect our temperatures also since the flow is from those dry areas.
 

 

These are the classic summers I grew up with that I knew and loved.  I have dim memories of 1977 (mostly because of the blackout.... I think there's a pun there somewhere, unintentional I assure you lol) but stronger memories of 1980, 1983, 1988, 1991, 1993, 1995, 1999, 2002.  The summers in the 90s were when I was in college and enjoyed wonderfully sunny summers at the beach, I think those summers all the way up to 2002 were the best summers we've ever had, only usurped by 2010-2013 which also had wonderful weather.  Since 2013 we just haven't had summers like that anymore.  We haven't even had a stretch of 7 or more days of 90 degree heat in a row since 2002 (we had two that year and also two in 1999.)

steady heavyish rain now, today has been a pretty rainy day and so will the next 2 days.  This storm is not underperforming

3 minutes ago, SRRTA22 said:

Most people do NOT like 100 degree temps lol 80/65 temp split with low dews is perfect 

100 degrees is what makes a summer memorable, if it has low dew points even better.  I would love 101 degrees with a dew point of 60, we got a lot of that in 2010.

There's also a nice correlation between hot summers and snowy winters.

We had that in 1955, 1966, 1977, 1993, 1995, 2002, 2010, and 2013.

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Everyone has their own personal preferences as to which type of weather they enjoy. So this part of the forum discussion is purely subjective. 

Drought feedback, summer rainfall, prevailing wind direction, and the main ridge axis are the key ingredients in determining how many 95°+ or 100°+ days we get around the area. 

The summers of 1983 and 2011 were very dry when we had all the record major heat around the area. Both summers only became wet once the heat was already finished.

You are correct that flooding has produced a tremendous amount of damage in recent years across the entire country. Drought damage has mostly been located out West where the major wildfires have occurred. 

Currently, a large portion of the area has experienced drought conditions since last summer. It has been most pronounced from Eastern PA into portions of NJ. But D1 and D2 drought conditions also over to Orange and Rockland in NY. 

Models like the Euro would have drought improvement for the areas from NE PA across into SNE. But locations further south toward Philly and SNJ wouldn’t see much improvement. 

The Euro seasonal is out tomorrow for the summer. So we should get some hints as to where the drought is forecast to expand or contract and how much major heat will be possible. 

The most recent dry summer during peak heating was 2022. But onshore flow combined with drought feedback in NJ focused the major heat there with the 5+ days going over 100°. But the onshore flow kept points east of the Hudson cooler. 
 

 

 

when you look at summers like 1983 and 2011 though, wasn't it went both before and after summer? 1982-83 was a very strong el nino so naturally it had a very wet winter and I remember spring was very wet too.  It was only the summer months that had lower rainfall.  It makes me think that it gives the soil time to dry out before peak heating season.

2010-11 was of course a very snowy winter and also very wet.  I don't remember what spring was like that year except for all the severe weather outbreaks across the south and midwest.

1 hour ago, MANDA said:

Guidance only but this WPC product has shown shrinking rainfall totals for days now.

If I get what is shown here for my location and add the .50" I've had so far I'll end up with about 1.75" for the entire "wet period".  I'll take it for sure but a far cry from what could have been and much less than what was being forecast from when we started.  We'll see where final totals actually end up but this was a shaky heavy (3-4"+) rainfall evolution from the get go.

So far extreme NW NJ seems to be doing best, from western Hunterdon, western Warren and up through NW Sussex.

it makes sense with a low track to the west, areas east of the low track usually see the least rainfall and it's almost always showery.

1.75 from such a storm track is actually pretty good.