psv88

11 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Sleet here too with a mangled flake or two. We should be snowing soon, sleet line is sinking south from the sound and also coming east from the city. 

Heavy snow now. Quick flip. Line is along LIE

All sleet. Vomit

South v north shore big difference today. All melted south shore still full snow cover up here 

Weird so many on the island reporting no snow. Looks like almost an inch out there in nw Suffolk and still coming down.

18 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

If you could pin it down to one town, or one small part of the Island, which part or town do you think held onto icing the longest?

 

Probably an area like Cold Spring Harbor or Oyster Bay. Somewhere on the nassau suffolk line a mile or so south of the sound. 

1 hour ago, HVSnowLover said:

It's 31 here but it's basically just rain/wet now.

Still not above freezing at 11:45. It’s 32.1. I’m shocked. Lots of ice accretion out there

1 minute ago, Parsley said:

Lol. Stay safe my friend. 

Well look who the cat dragged in haha. Doing my best to avoid the puddles, same to you!

8 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

I'm at 34 now

It's messy outside. Many people thought the rain was going to wash the snow away but the rain has been very light.

No one really shoveled . It's terrible.

Bro its an inch of slush. It’ll be ok.

1 hour ago, HVSnowLover said:

Yea I'd said we'd revisit at 9 and theres no strong warm air push with this, only areas that seem to be above freezing are south shore and southern parts of Brooklyn/Queens. Temps rising less than 1 degree an hour for most of the metro area.

10:30 and it’s 31.2 still and ZR

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I'm a mile or so NE of Jayne's Hill and it's quite hilly here (at least compared to Long Beach). Haven't seen actual freezing rain enough to leave a decent glaze in quite a while. In LB, freezing rain is quite rare. 

You live in one of the colder and snowier areas on the island there. Your elevation is likely around 300 feet, definitely helpful in marginal storms

2 minutes ago, Cfa said:

I noticed this with the last event, it was slightly colder with more snow when I was in Commack. I finished with 1.2”.

And I recall last winter when you went subzero while here and ISP bottomed out at +2°, I wonder if elevation/topography plays a role. Would the terminal moraine even rise high enough for a slight cold air damming affect?

Not sure. Jaynes Hill is 400 feet so that and it’s inland location definitely makes it colder. I think some of the lower lying “valleys” hang on to the cold longer than the wide open flat areas further south. Nw Suffolk is also the hilliest part of the island, so maybe it could be slight damming.

4 minutes ago, Cfa said:

I see, LI climo is quirky. I’m east of the Sagtikos and next to the LIE. ZR here still, though I’m now technically above freezing at 32.4, rainfall/snowmelt beginning to accumulate in my PWS’s rain gauge.

This is a good map to visualize the micro climate. Nw Suffolk the cold spot. 

Just now, Cfa said:

I see, LI climo is quirky. I’m east of the Sagtikos and next to the LIE. ZR here still, though I’m now technically above freezing at 32.4, rainfall/snowmelt beginning to accumulate in my PWS’s rain gauge.

29.7 here. Many times driving west there is a clear change to colder and snowier around exit 54 on the LIE. And coming from the south once you get about a mile south of the LIE on north. 

I have even seen a big difference between Hauppauge and Commack, where Commack was snowing for hours with 2” down and Hauppauge mixing.

2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Yea I'd said we'd revisit at 9 and theres no strong warm air push with this, only areas that seem to be above freezing are south shore and southern parts of Brooklyn/Queens. Temps rising less than 1 degree an hour for most of the metro area.

29.7 at 9 pm. Another hour and we will start to melt

1 minute ago, Cfa said:

Idk, it’s pretty close here, 3 degrees in 41 minutes, 29 to 32. I’m not too far away from you.

West of the Saktikos and north of the LIE is a different world. We’ll hang on to ZR until at least 10. Check out weather underground map. South shore at or above freezing, north shore and western Suffolk in upper 20s. Usually takes a few hours for the warm air to work it’s way up here 

39 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Not likely but sometimes surface torches fast in these scenarios, however this storm doesn't have a signal for a rapid surface torch so I would probably agree 

Up 0.6 in past 38 minutes to 29.1. Slow crawl. Snow and sleet continues out here

Just now, HVSnowLover said:

I wouldn't be sure we always say this kind of stuff and then temps go above freezing quicker than expected. Right now I would expect Northern NYC and north shore to stay frozen through at least 9 and will revisit then.

Temp has risen a degree in the last hour and it’s 28.5. We aren’t spiking 4 degrees in an hour 

14 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

A little over an inch in Huntington Station. Some very light sleet/freezing drizzle falling. 

This will be the difference from south shore. THey are approaching freezing now and you will stay below freezing and ZR until 11 pm.

Coming down hard now, 27, about 1.5" down

1/2” in nw Suffolk and moderate snow.

Maybe 1/4 inch down, light snow and 26

1 minute ago, nzucker said:

Right, the increase in precipitation may have a greater impact on snowfall than the increase in temperatures, especially in colder areas. We've seen this with some very high QPF storms in recent years like the March 2017 mixed event and the January 2016 Nor'easter. However, eventually the warming temperatures will become too much, and snowfall will start to decrease; most models show this happening in the second half of the 21st century. If NYC's climate does warm to the current climate of the AR/MO border, as shown in the NYT article, or even to the climate of DC, there will be a substantial decrease in snowfall.

One thing is that climate models are fickle and complex. Sure climate warms, but when Greenland melts and the North Atlantic is much less salty, what happens to the Gulf Stream? Does the lack of salinity disrupt its flow and lead to colder waters off the east coast? Does a cooler Gulf Stream means less intense nor’easters? Frankly, nobody really knows.

7 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Because we know the different heat properties of different gasses. We know that methane is a much more potent greenhouse gas than CO2, but we release far more CO2. We know that all the carbon we are releasing from fossil fuels has been buried in the earth for millions of years. All we are doing when we pump oil, gas, coal, etc. is bringing this stored carbon and burning it, releasing CO2 into the air. Yes, CO2 concentrations have been higher in the past; yes the climate has been warmer in the past. But typically climate change is very slow allowing plants, animals, and microbes the ability evolve. And humans most likely would not have been able to survive those periods either. Further, as a vector disease researcher, we are seeing the movement of certain diseases and their vectors that are not following human paths, but climate paths. But another huge issue that does not receive much media coverage, is the ever shrinking biodiversity on the planet, which might actually have far greater impacts in our lifetime than climate change. Humans have always been smart enough in the past to figure out problems though, so I do believe we will ultimately figure things out. 

On that note, i was reading some article about the next mass extinction and how the earth will recover with millions of new species, like has happened after each prior mass extinction. Mass extinctions are bad for us in the short term for the elimination and management of insect pests and pollination of food, but long term it will even out. 

3 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

There was no scientific consensus in the 70's on a new ice age. There were some articles in the popular press and and popular book and a few scientists who noted a cooling trend due to air pollution. Today there is scientific consensus and thousands of peer reviewed research articles.  

 

Yea it’s funny there was one mainstream article on the cooling planet 45 years ago that some point to. Very strange.

1 minute ago, jfklganyc said:

From the Feb thread “Our climate is changing. We will see more blockbuster seasons for the next few decades before we eventually reach a critical mass and temps are too warm for snow“

 

 

And that shows someone blaming this winter on climate change how?