Round Hill WX

My ice melted today but still a lot of ice just up the mountain. I saw several utility company trucks out today getting power restored. Bit of in underrated event.

Driveway and grass becoming white. Radar looks good. 30/25

I’m about 3 miles east of the Jefferson County WV/Loudoun border. Not on the mountain but I do have some elevation up on a hill. It’s a good area wedged between the Catoctins and Blue Ridge...holds CAD very well. Steady snow now.

Light snow in Round Hill. 33/17

2” in Round Hill today. 5.25” on the week. 23.75” on the season.

Getting blasted in Round Hill. Heavy snow and high winds. 11 degree temp drop in 12 minutes. Get ready those to my east. It’s awesome.

2.75" total in Round Hill. 21.25" on the season. Winds decoupled a bit and dropped to 5 degrees around 7am. Back up to 21 now.

1.25” in Round Hill. 30/28

Snowing nicely in Round Hill. Even the neighborhood street is turning white. 30/27

The maps he posted this morning had 2 different temp scales which gave the appearance of a massive torch in the east for the 1st week of February. It was deceiving as hell. Probably doesn't matter because it isn't going to snow either way!

I should not have used the word "skill" in my description of this model chart because it is measured in absolute error which by definition is different than "skill" compared to climatology. "Absolute error" tells us about the size of the forecast error based on the difference between the forecast conditions and what actually happens. Using temperature as an example, absolute error does not tell you whether the forecast was warmer or cooler than what actually happened; it only tells you about the size of the error. In other words, a forecast that is 5 degrees Fahrenheit too high would have the same absolute error as a forecast that is 5 degrees Fahrenheit too low. "Skill" compared to climatology are forecasts that have more accuracy than a generic "climatology" forecast of 30-year normal conditions. If the forecast is less accurate than using a forecast of climatological normals, then the forecast has no skill and is essentially useless. It would be interesting to chart the "skill" of the ensembles but for NWP, absolute error is easier for verification purposes.

I can't speak for the last couple of years, but recently the GEFS has beaten the EPS in skill. This is the 11-15 day range over the last 90 days.

There are some flurries blowing around here.

Round Hill: 1.09" rain total. 33/24 after a high of 38 @945am. NW gust to 25mph. Still have several inches of snowpack left....

It’s his employers model so I’m sure he is required to pimp it out for them. Deep Blunder....

0.6” in Round Hill. 30/29.

Yes. Our problem for the weekend storm is the relaxing/weakening PNA ridge over the inter-mountain west. In turn, the eastern trof doesn't dig, which at our latitude allows the storm to go over or just west of us. The Thursday PM storm will have no effect on the weekend storm here.

06z GEFS is a nice track from southern Texas to off the Carolina coast. Banana high supplying cold air throughout the storm. Below that is the 0z EPS which tracks from North Texas across Kentucky then off the DELMARVA. More mixed precip solution for areas north and west....

HEAVY snow in Round Hill. 1.75” in the last hour! This is awesome!

This western band is legit. Pouring snow in Round Hill. Radar is prime to deliver a couple more inches.

Some great pictures this morning. @Bob Chill that is a monster buck man! Winding down here in Round Hill. Measured 7.1” I got all my shoveling done and looking forward to an afternoon of beer and football.

2.9” in Round Hill. 27/25.

1” in Round Hill. 28/26.

Light snow has begun in Round Hill. 31/20.

We’re either going to get tstorms or snow at this lead. Seriously. Either way I’m intrigued.