TriPol

1 minute ago, dmillz25 said:

Down to 9 at the Park

Thankfully the wind isn't bad. Otherwise, this would be a lot less tolerable.

Just now, jm1220 said:

We're still long range for that model, we're not within 24 hours of most of the event yet, more like 30 hours. If other guidance at 12z trends toward it then sure. 

The storm is scheduled to start around 5 am, I believe. Definitely almost 23 hours. I guess it depends on where you live, but we're definitely around 24 hours away.

Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said:

hrrr is the best short term model and it looks perfect hope it's right. 

HRRR is being retired when the RRFS goes live. The goal is to unify and improve upon models like HRRR, HREF, and NAM with a single, advanced system.

3 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

I’m actually glad to see it. What’s the famous scene in Citizen Kane… his old sled, Rosebud… a child’s memory of playing in the snow….saw a 78 year old retired superintendent recently, I asked him how they made school decisions. He said when it comes to snow he is like a kid again. He’d go out at 4 am with grounds supervisor to see three schools; if the grounds guy said close the schools he did.

Yeah, the Rosebud bit is poetic in theory, but let's be real—by the time you're a 78-year-old superintendent, that 4 a.m. snow check is less "childlike wonder" and more "please don't make me explain another lawsuit to the board." The grounds guy says close, you close: it's not nostalgia, it's CYA (cover your ass) wrapped in boots and a flashlight. Still, in a world of endless model runs and liability spreadsheets, there's something grimly satisfying about one last decision boiled down to "looks bad out there." 

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs is warmer and sleet gets into the NYC area faster.   Cut down totals to single digits

I wouldn't pay attention to the GFS inside of 24 hours. HRRR is my go to at this point, although I'm pretty giddy about the RRFS coming soon.

06z HRRR is incredible for our area as far as snow and icing. It shows half an inch of ice on Long Island.

3 am thoughts: When it does snow, it's going to be the heaviest snow some of us have ever seen in our lives. Think 2" - 3" per hour snow. Literally puking snow. 

Remember, the NAM is being retired.

13 minutes ago, Mo Snow said:

Wish the Patriots were hosting the AFC Championship game. Could've been an all timer snow game on Sunday

And endure 25 minutes of non-stop replays about the tuck rule? I think I'm good.

*clears throat*

It's time for the obligatory...

It's nowcasting time.

I wouldn't want to be a meteorologist in the NWS right now.

I guess with this storm dumping sleet and freezing rain all over the country, it's just decided that it's going to do the same thing here. Fun times.

I think the NWS really needs to adjust the forecast. Every single model shows mixing. The EURO shows freezing rain which is a lot worse than sleet.

Maybe a quick hit of sleet, but it ends as snow.

GFS holds serve against the NAM (retiring soon) the ICON (irrelevant) and the RDPS (can't do well with WAA). I would put more stock in the GFS than any of those.

3 minutes ago, Rjay said:

See you in a week 

He should tell that to the people in Oswego. They had four feet of snow in 24 hours.

Just now, Prue11 said:

I can’t believe we’re talking about sleet with temps in teens and low 20s at the start of this storm. It’s happened before and I’m sure we’ll see a period of sleet at some point hopefully after a huge thump 

No. I don't think the immediate NYC Metro area sees any sleet.

1 minute ago, SACRUS said:

 

No way this is a coastal hugger. I don't buy that for a second.

RDPS, the Canadian Regional Deterministic Prediction System, is often less reliable for mid-level temperature evolution, especially 850 hPa warming events, compared to some peer models. RDPS tends to struggle with warm air advection aloft, particularly when the warming depends on subtle synoptic timing or shallow inversions. It has a known bias toward under-amplifying mid-level ridges and mixing warm layers too aggressively, which can delay or mute warming signals. That shows up most clearly in marginal setups like rain versus snow lines or freezing rain transitions.

If I remember correctly, when tracking the Boxing Day Blizzard, we weren't 100% sure if it would stay all snow until 36-24 hours before the storm hit. 

Just now, BoulderWX said:

That shows what? 

North and West receiving more snow than NYC mid to south NJ or Eastern LI. Excluding the ICON (a joke) everyone gives the immediate NYC area more snow.

22 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

Yeah that’s the best call. More in the very northern parts of NJ and NYS is looking at 12-16

There are no weather models or forecasts that show this.

29 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

GFS shows a blizzard for next Sunday, Cmc shows snow and than a blizzard coming up the east coast by next sunday! This is a real winter!

I'll say this: It's real nice to actually have multiple storms to track. Last few winters have been boring.

How long until we get storm cancel from people?

The fact that the EURO has been running for about 10 minutes and no one has really said anything is saying something.