TriPol

https://townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/p/weather-model-run-times.html

Just so everyone has the ability to see this. It's a bit old and doesn't include the 6z and 18z times of the EURO as well as the run times of the AI versions of the GFS and EURO, but it's still somewhat helpful:

 

Quote

GFS (out to 384 hours)
0z: 10:30pm
6z: 4:30am
12z: 10:30am
18z: 4:30pm

NAM (out to 84 hours)
0z: 8:35pm
6z: 2:35am
12z: 8:35am
18z: 2:35pm

CMC (out to 180 hours)
0z: 12:00am
12z : 12:00pm

UKMET (out to 72 hours)
0z: 12:30am
12z: 12:30pm

ECMWF (EURO) (out to 240 hours)
0z: 1:30am
12z: 1:30pm

7 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

people are in denial; it will miss us, still a chance this will be nothing; its only at the shore, its only boston yada yada. people do not want to believe it; years of busts remembered but no one remembers 5 years ago or ten years ago......i can't believe the things i'm hearing from people, likewise i can't wrap my head around what i'm seeing here; this isn't just some snow, this is serious damn business. 

That happened for Sandy too. People were in denial. We knew what was going to happen two weeks out.

2 minutes ago, weathermedic said:

Remember the NAM tends to overamp so maybe cut it down by 1/3

Dude - every model agrees with the NAM. 

28 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Forget monday travel east coast 

And Tuesday

1 minute ago, David-LI said:

Im too lazy to go back 10 forum pages. How was the 06z euro?

Maybe we get a foot.

3 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Never eclipsing 1996.  The storm was amazing.  It kept coming down hard.  And when the intensity dropped slightly, it only came down just as hard a minute later.  However, I wouldn't mind seeing a 40 inch snowstorm...

1996 isn't even in the top 5 snowfalls at Central Park anymore. 

3 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Those are 27.5 and 26.8 inches. I doubt the city approaches those amounts but even if they did I doubt whoever they send to measure in the park will be accurate with all that blowing and drifting. 
Since this storm will overlap a calendar day they must also start new measurements at midnight Sunday and add the totals together it isn't maximum depth then. In summation accuracy might be a problem no matter what they get. 

They've actually been pretty spot on this year with snow measuring at Central Park. 

I think we break the record. I think we break 2006 and maybe 2016's record.

How is it possible for the NAM to outdo itself every run?

With the sREFs, the NAM, and the HRRR all on board giving us an absolutely historical blizzard and the NWS telling us 13 - 18 inches, I have no clue why TV meteorologists are still saying "6 - 10 inches." Are they really hugging the EURO this much and think everything is going to come around to support the EURO?

Quote

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Confidence has increased to the point where winter storm and
blizzard warnings have been issued across the forecast area.

A major winter storm is forecast to impact the area Sunday into
Monday. Model guidance has congealed in taking a deepening low
off the Mid Atlantic coast Sunday northeast to near the 40N...70W
benchmark Monday. This track is often favorable for all snow
across the region. The low undergoes explosive deepening in 12h,
tracking from near the North Carolina coast Sunday afternoon to
east of the Delmarva Sunday night. Most of the guidance shows
pressure falls on the order of 25 to 30 mb in 12 hour. The low
deepens to around 970 mb as it approaches the benchmark Monday
morning.

This storm, expected to be early 1000 miles across in diameter,
will produce heavy precipitation and gale to storm force winds
over the adjacent coastal waters. Model soundings show boundary
layer winds along the coast 40-60kt with decent mixing. Coastal
locations can expect to see gusts up 40 to 50 mph, possibly even
stronger across far eastern LI and southeast CT. Even inland
area will see near blizzard conditions with winds just a bit
weaker. The highest winds will occur Sunday night into the
first half of Monday.

Liquid equivalent amounts of around an inch across far NW
portions of Orange county will be near an inch, with upward of
an 1.5" at the coast. There is even some guidance suggestive of
amount around 2 inches at the coast. However, while there is
good overall agreement in the guidance, there still have been
small adjustments east and west and a consenus forecast (blend
of WPC and NBM) was used. Snow ratios are expected to start of
around 10:1 and then possibly get up to 12-13:1. Temperatures
initially on Sunday may get into the lower and mid 30s, expect
most locations to fall to around freezing if not lower as the
heavy snow develops in the afternoon. So ratios right off the
bat along he coast may even be lower for a short time.

Snowfall amounts of 14 to 18 inches are forecast along the coast
with 10 to 14 inches across the interior. NBM deterministic
forecasts point to amounts of 14 to 24 inches across the area,
highest along the coast. But due to some wobbling of the low
track a bit, we do want to see more continuity. NBM 90th
percentile has amounts of 2 to 3 ft. The 00Z LREF (EPS, GEPS,
and GEFS) mean has about a foot at the coast and 7 to 8 inches
across far western sections of Orange County in the Lower Hudson
Valley. The EPS is contributing lower amounts with a more
eastern solution. Should it come a bit more west, than the
higher totals are not out of the realm possibility.

Snow is forecast to develop from SW to NE on Sunday, in the
morning from NYC and points north and west, and the in the
afternoon for the remainder of the area. The heaviest snow and
wind will be Sunday night into Monday morning. Snow will end
from west to east during the afternoon hours.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...

Strengthening E-NE winds Sunday into Sunday night could produce
a surge of 2.5-3.5 ft, producing widespread moderate to
locally major coastal flooding along the back bays of western
Suffolk and srn Nassau, Peconic Bay, and western Long Island
Sound, and widespread minor to locally moderate flooding in NY
Harbor and Jamaica Bay, the lower Hudson River, and ern Long
Island Sound. The main high tide cycle of concern is Sunday
night. Areas of dune erosion are likely, with localized
overwashes possible along the ocean beachfront Sunday night into
Monday morning.

Additional coastal flooding will likely linger into the
Monday afternoon high tide cycle, with a strong northerly flow
limiting impacts somewhat to minor/locally moderate categories.

1 minute ago, NsWx516 said:

 

At what point do we start discussin the threat for Friday on the gfs lol

In a different thread.

4 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

Sorry but the NAM doesn’t make any sense to me. There’s no reason it should start noticeably worse and then go and do that. It seems like one of those classic NAM runs that has no chance of verifying but looks great through weenie goggles.

Bombogenesis. Once this thing goes offshore it explode.

There was talk of closing this thread earlier in the week because the chances were so small that anything would come of it. Now Atlantic City could get... 4 feet of snow.

2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Here's the weenie map

 

Beautiful.

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yep still going to hit hard but the low isnt tucked in.

This is the most west the low has been over the past few runs.

Doubt there will be any school on Monday.

1 minute ago, Mail Man said:

Sure does. Not having the euro not playing ball still concerns me.

We shall see if the GFS can score a coup.

The NAM moves sooooo slow...

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Going to be less snow on this run

Is it me or is it much weaker?

1 minute ago, jaysoner said:

Is the NAM running yet?

I'm out to hour 35.

1 minute ago, Snowlover11 said:

And like 12-18 hours ago they where predicting 1-3”

Life comes at you fast.

I cannot imagine what NYC is going to wake up to this morning. A blizzard warning will get people out of bed VERY QUICKLY.

Quote

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
244 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

CTZ009>012-NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179-211900-
/O.UPG.KOKX.WS.A.0002.260222T1100Z-260223T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.BZ.W.0001.260222T1100Z-260223T2300Z/
Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-Southern
New London-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk-
Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-Northern
Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
244 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations
  between 13 and 18 inches. Winds gusting as high as 55 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut and southeast New York.

* WHEN...From 6 AM Sunday to 6 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Visibilities may drop below 1/4 mile due to falling and
  blowing snow. Whiteout conditions are expected and will make
  travel treacherous and potentially life-threatening. The strong
  winds and weight of snow on tree limbs may down power lines and
  could cause sporadic power outages. The hazardous conditions could
  impact the Monday morning and evening commutes. Strong winds could
  cause tree damage.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Strongest winds and blizzard conditions are
  expected to Sunday night into Monday. However, snow will move in
  during the morning and afternoon hours.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Travel should be restricted to emergencies only. If you must travel,
have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded, stay with
your vehicle. Check local Department of Transportation information
services for the latest road conditions.

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
are likely. This will lead to whiteout conditions, making travel
extremely dangerous. Do not travel. If you must travel, have a
winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded, stay in your
vehicle.

&&

$$

1 minute ago, nycwinter said:

i guess they are discounting the euro somewhat.

Wow.