TriPol

Out to 102 hours. A weak low off of the Carolinas.

06z GFS is running. Out to 72.

11 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

i think this will be the potential track of the storm.  just an educated guess.  one or the other 

Great. Sandy without the hurricane.

Storm cancel. Bermuda gets whalloped at this rate. GFS AI is even more west.

18 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

nobody cares about that model, look at euro ai

Careful or I'll give you the weenie ring.

4 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

I’m so glad that the models aren’t all aligned and showing a 2ft storm forum wide - social media is already insane with hype  

right now we have a storm signal / that’s it. 

Oh just wait until Friday. 

43 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

12z GEM has a 960 low south of Long Island. I can guarantee you if that verifies the Boston train will not be pulling into Grand Central on time, or perhaps ever.

The amount of damage that would do to Long Island beaches would take years to recover from. 

7 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

whatever euro Ai shows momentarily will be my forecast for this system. I won't change it!

Live by the run, die by the run. Try to open yourself up to changes. We've got the entire week ahead of us.

17 minutes ago, Jersey_Snowhole said:

Gefs 

That's a BIG storm. 

I wonder if there are analogs.

13 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Excellent. We had this same problem with the last storm. Then it came too far north.

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

So this would be a once in a   lifetime event(s) 2 MECS so close together

If this storm hits the way it looks, this would be a HECS. 

11 minutes ago, 203whiteout said:

This is NOT where you wana be 5/6 days out lol. This will end up a cutter if this trends anything like ANY big storm ever


.

I award you the weenie ring for today.

5 minutes ago, 203whiteout said:

This is NOT where you wana be 5/6 days out lol. This will end up a cutter if this trends anything like ANY big storm ever


.

Not sure how you equate a storm forming to our south with a cutter?? 

I know this is 06z and I haven't seen the 12z EURO yet... but holy cow. 

EURO AI is a swing and a miss. But we've got time. I would rather not be in the bullseye this far out.

I've seen weaker hurricanes than this before. 963 is at least Cat 2.

On 1/19/2026 at 7:53 PM, WeatherGeek2025 said:

 yes buddy im not crying... i don't care nature gonna do what its gonna do

 

 

i do think tripod jinxed it though and it's going to miss to our south

Survey says.... WRONG

Central Park got nearly a foot of snow. I jinxed nothing.

1 minute ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Your'e going to get another 3-5" in the city proper.

From where?

Too early to score GFS for the coup against all the other models... 

1 minute ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said:

Weak coastal off hatteras,nc currently, the tug of war has started. This is where models start to waffle. Almost every model has the weak coastal just off the nj coast later. 

Imagine if this gets suppressed. 

Upton should have stuck to their guns instead of caving to the NAM.

Just now, mikem81 said:

Hpw can we track movement of sleet line?

I love this group. After about a week of debate about if it will snow, sleet, or suppress... we get snow. The largest snow of the year. And so do we want to go outside, enjoy the snow, maybe build a snowman or a snow castle... we track the sleet line. Like it's a predator hunting us. 

You guys are great.

I'll admit I was refreshing tropical tidbits and pivotal weather for the next frame on the EURO like a madman... but you guys got me beat.

Good luck to everyone who has to commute home from this mess today.

Snow is already falling. 

3 minutes ago, wilton_wx said:

06z NAM with an interesting change. Sleet line shifts back south after coming north, something unseen in the prior runs.

God bless computer models. I'm anxious to see the results. We'll know in 12 hours who was right and who was wrong.