TriPol

Any chance the volcano in iceland impacts our weather? 

Sold!

4 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Gefs and geps are starting to show a colder pattern near Thanksgiving. 

Hopefully not a windy one. Don't want anything to happen to the parade. 

Down to 35 here

8 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

Part left-overs from Tammy?    Storm is going eastward here.....

The GFS is on some premium quality stuff this morning:
 

Well, howdy there...

4 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

So much for a Nino pattern 

Don't we want a high pressure over the aleutians this time of year?  

Not a drop in Bayonne, NJ.

This went way further north than originally predicted.

Stick a forky in it. We’re not getting more than an inch.

51 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

While Orphelia may be in our vocabulary for just days-----the first week of October on the GFS which was to start in the 80's-----is now starting in the 60's with multiple chances of another TS.      Rainfall exceeds 8" over the next 16 days!      

BN Octobers may mean an AN winter, I think, say 60%.

We've had AN Octobers for years without any snow. I need snow. Give me snow! I'm addicted to that white powdery substance in a way I can't describe! Oh wait..

22 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

What below average temps?

It's not getting any warmer than the 60s today. Low-mid 70s all week. 

If this rain keeps up and we continue to get below average temps, we’re in for amazing fall foliage, the likes of which hasn’t been seen in a long time. Get your cameras ready!

I really enjoy the sounds of the rain at night. So quiet and peaceful.

I've been involved in meteorology for decades. I have never seen a storm rapidly intensify like this. Would be interested to see SSTs after Lee has passed.

7 hours ago, forkyfork said:

sure why not let's ruin a heat wave with a due west moving freak storm

If this doesn't verify, it'll be more disappointing than Viennetta ice cream.

A little pocket of 31.5-32.5C water temps. Basically 90 degree water temps. 

9 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

2019 was NYC's last cooler than normal August. August 2023 will be the coolest August since August 2017. Both August 2017 and August 2019 were followed by a warmer than normal September.

 I don't remember much about the preceding winters, so that can't be good.

I'd wager a hefty sum that the likelihood of a landfall event in the Florida Panhandle is rather minimal, a hypothesis that I find somewhat at odds with the current projections from the National Hurricane Center. Since the case of Hurricane Charlie, Gulf-originating hurricanes to veer westward in their tracks, particularly when their initial trajectories are not aimed at Texas, Louisiana, or the Mississippi/Alabama coastline. This westward bias is often less pronounced when a robust anticyclonic system is situated over Florida, effectively serving as a protective barrier for the state's western coastline. One could argue that the NHC's forecasting methodology could benefit from a reevaluation of these recurrent patterns, especially in the context of recent advancements in ensemble forecasting and data assimilation techniques.

18 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Can you elaborate on the physics of why a cyclone would be pulled east, relative to track forecasts, while approaching the west coast of FL?  Obviously the track moved east relative to the forecast track with Ian, especially in the last 1-2 days before landfall (which is where we are now), but one could imagine many reasons for such shifts.  Thanks.  

The trajectory of a tropical cyclone is predominantly governed by the ambient steering flow, a term that encapsulates the mean environmental wind field in which the cyclone is embedded. Deviations in this steering flow, such as an anomalously robust westerly component, can induce a corresponding easterly shift in the cyclone's track. Synoptic-scale anticyclonic systems also exert a significant influence on cyclone trajectory. The spatial orientation and dynamical strength of a high-pressure system situated to the north or northeast of a cyclone can act as a steering mechanism, directing the cyclone on a more westerly course. Conversely, a weakening or lateral displacement of the anticyclonic system may permit a more easterly trajectory for the cyclone. Upper-level atmospheric features, including troughs and ridges, further modulate cyclone tracks. An approaching trough from the westerly direction can effectively "capture" the cyclone, inducing a poleward and often eastward deflection from the originally forecasted path. It's imperative to acknowledge the inherent uncertainties associated with numerical weather prediction models. These uncertainties stem from various sources, including but not limited to, initial condition errors, approximations in the model's physical parameterizations, and the intrinsically chaotic nature of the atmosphere. While the fidelity of these models generally improves as the temporal proximity to the event decreases, unforeseen deviations in the cyclone's track can still manifest. Oceanic parameters, such as sea surface temperatures and underlying currents, can also exert an indirect influence on cyclone trajectory by modulating its intensity. An intensifying cyclone may interact differently with the ambient steering flow and other synoptic to mesoscale features, thereby altering its anticipated path. As the cyclone nears a landmass, the increased surface friction can induce structural changes in the cyclone's inner core, which may, in turn, result in last-minute alterations to its track. Additionally, microscale geographical features, such as bays, inlets, and even expansive urban areas, can impart localized effects on the cyclone's trajectory, although these influences are generally subordinate to the aforementioned larger-scale dynamical factors.

38 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

August will close out with cooler than normal readings. Tomorrow could see highs only in the 70s across much of the region. Showers and a period of rain are likely tomorrow night into Wednesday.

Out West, Phoenix recorded a 117° high temperature, which tied the August record. Brownsville reached 106°, which tied that city's all-time high.

Tomorrow into tomorrow night, Idalia will likely undergo rapid intensification. It could make Florida landfall as a Category 3 or 4 hurricane.  

In the long-range, it remains more likely than not that ridges will wax and wane over the central and southern U.S., producing more heat in areas that have seen a lot of it this summer. If that idea holds, the Northeast will likely only see some short-lived periods of warmer or much warmer than normal temperatures through at least the first week of September. Some short-lived warmth could arrive late in the first week of September. More sustained unseasonable warmth could develop afterward.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.5°C for the week centered around August 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.23°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter.

The SOI was -10.99 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.794 today.

On August 26 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.148 (RMM). The August 25-adjusted amplitude was 1.180 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.8° (1.3° below normal).

 

When was the last time we had a colder than normal august?

3 minutes ago, Derecho! said:

Loops back into the Gulf (never intensifies) and wanders over New Orleans at HR 222. 

Shades of Hurricane Elena 1985. As a former resident of Tampa, that storm was talked about A LOT in the late '80s and '90s.

53 minutes ago, TPAwx said:

Up from last advisory

 

That's going to move down. I think Tampa is the bullseye. Maybe just north.

9 hours ago, Dan76 said:

LOL the blue stuff 

The 384 hour GFS has upgraded from shrooms to crack!

A bit a breeze with current temp around 78 degrees. 35% humidity, 50 degree dew point. It feels gorgeous outside.