TriPol

Who's ready to go ice skating on the East River?

36 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

NYC will be just 2 degrees warmer than the record high temp on this date.

Lots of records are forecasted to fall in Florida feel bad for vacationers.

The record high temp for Jan 30 in NYC is 64 degrees (set in 2006). To be 2 degrees warmer than the record high, we would need to be 66. The high for today will be 21 degrees.

10 hours ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

can't i just stay i promise i wont be annoying and ill talk less on the main thread and more on here??? please

Be a man. If you say something, stick with it. Do your time. You promised you'd leave for two weeks. Do it. No one around here will respect you if you stay.

I feel bad for the people in Virginia who thought they were going to get a 40 inch snowstorm at the start of the week. 

1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

nam? any changes? 

I thought you were taking two weeks off.

1 hour ago, eduggs said:

The ICON ensembles have about a tenth liquid back to NYC. So really just a few outlier individual members with a glancing hit. This is a little better than 6z and a little worse than 0z. Just enough interest for false hope.

If we use 100:1 ratios we have a decent snowstorm 

7 hours ago, Freezing Drizzle said:

NYCSNOW - During the winter of 1976 or 1977 there was an area-wide event dubbed the "One inch blizzard." It was exactly what they called it. You might be able to search for it.

Huh. That's what my wife calls me. Now I get where she got it from.

3 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

Jersey Shore Special.

Reminds me of December 1988. MacArthur airport reported a blizzard while NYC barely got flurries.

On 1/27/2026 at 9:03 AM, JonClaw said:

A short rant in here.

It seems like not having a major snowstorm in 5 years wiped all collective snow removal knowledge from some New Yorker brains:

• People shoveling snow into the street
• People waiting until after the storm is over to shovel
  • This includes their cars
• People not clearing snow off the roofs of their cars
• Crosswalks not getting shoveled
  • If it looks like another storm hits, I'm about to buy a shovel and do it my damn self. 

All that said, DSNY has done a good job!

The crosswalks not getting shoveled is bad. In Jersey City, you need to walk onto the actual rails for the light rail to be able to walk safely at Exchange Place.

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

In general, a dominant first coastal low tends to pull the baroclinic zone offshore and the trailing wave further east. The NAM makes the second low the dominant low and that's the solution that would have the best chance of bringing appreciable snows to the coastal plain, not just eastern Long Island or southeastern New England. However, the NAM is just a single model and this is a single run of that model.

We just had a foot of snow. The Hudson River is almost frozen over. And Don is doing a pbp of the 84 hour NAM. Are we this desperate? Should we be looking at the JMA which scored a coup 20 years ago?

Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said:

i'm in the room, i can hear what you're saying!

At least the NY Post is in RJ's corner.

12 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

Should of had TriPol make the thread.

And risk Weather Geek's wrath? I think not.

https://nypost.com/2026/01/28/us-news/deadly-bomb-cyclone-headed-straight-for-nyc-and-could-batter-northeast-with-even-more-snow-even-colder-temps/

Deadly bomb cyclone headed straight for NYC — and could batter Northeast with even more snow, colder temps

2 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

I don't know why some folks think this is going to be set in stone after todays model runs - review the AFD's posted from Don for the Boxing Day storm less then 3 days in advance of the onset of precip

I love your optimism. I truly wonder though... why do we chase storms on here to just stare at different radars to look at echos and DBZ? Does anybody in here just go outside and enjoy the snow when it falls? 

Just now, MJO812 said:

Yep almost time to throw the towel. There will be more chances of snow ahead.

I heard something about the Polar Vortex coming in hot due to SSW. The usual suspects. I'm looking outside at the icy Hudson right now and wondering how much lower we can go in temperatures. Soon we're going to need icebreakers. I don't see a day above freezing in the 10 day outlook at all.

Maybe a thread shouldn't have been started a week out. Probably jinxed us.

2 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

Yes, where the hell you been? 

It's been 15 years. My memory from back then isn't the best.

23 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I have, 12/26/10, and it happened on 12/24.

You're saying the Boxing Day Blizzard was depicted on both the EURO and GFS as being over 150 miles southeast for days and then, within 48 hours, the models just started to show it move northwest and it eventually hit us?

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Too early to write it off but trend isnt good.

I have never seen a storm this far south and west of us on computer models just suddenly come back and hit us, which would be about 150+ mile shift west.

2 hours ago, Rjay said:

Nope

 

Stick a fork in it? 

NYC ferry service just announced that it’s suspending all ferries due to ice buildup in the East River.

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Common theme on the 12z cycle: The GFS and GGEM have brought the precipitation farther north and west. It's too soon to write off the storm for the NYC area and especially Long Island. Details still can't be resolved reliably this far out. 

Do you think we get a western movement?

Honestly? I'm ok with this. Let's move to Spring. If we're not going to get blasted with a 30+ inch storm, bring on the 60s!

Swing and a miss again. OTS.

Hmmm.... this looks different.