TriPol

EURO AI is a swing and a miss. But we've got time. I would rather not be in the bullseye this far out.

I've seen weaker hurricanes than this before. 963 is at least Cat 2.

On 1/19/2026 at 7:53 PM, WeatherGeek2025 said:

 yes buddy im not crying... i don't care nature gonna do what its gonna do

 

 

i do think tripod jinxed it though and it's going to miss to our south

Survey says.... WRONG

Central Park got nearly a foot of snow. I jinxed nothing.

1 minute ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Your'e going to get another 3-5" in the city proper.

From where?

Too early to score GFS for the coup against all the other models... 

1 minute ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said:

Weak coastal off hatteras,nc currently, the tug of war has started. This is where models start to waffle. Almost every model has the weak coastal just off the nj coast later. 

Imagine if this gets suppressed. 

Upton should have stuck to their guns instead of caving to the NAM.

Just now, mikem81 said:

Hpw can we track movement of sleet line?

I love this group. After about a week of debate about if it will snow, sleet, or suppress... we get snow. The largest snow of the year. And so do we want to go outside, enjoy the snow, maybe build a snowman or a snow castle... we track the sleet line. Like it's a predator hunting us. 

You guys are great.

I'll admit I was refreshing tropical tidbits and pivotal weather for the next frame on the EURO like a madman... but you guys got me beat.

Good luck to everyone who has to commute home from this mess today.

Snow is already falling. 

3 minutes ago, wilton_wx said:

06z NAM with an interesting change. Sleet line shifts back south after coming north, something unseen in the prior runs.

God bless computer models. I'm anxious to see the results. We'll know in 12 hours who was right and who was wrong. 

5 hours ago, steve392 said:

https://weatherstar.netbymatt.com/

They even use the classic weather channel elevator music. I could fall asleep to this.

Guys. It's snow. Come on. Let's stop arguing. If it snows, it snows. If it doesn't, it doesn't. Arguing about it won't change what actually happens. Either Noteast101 is right or he's wrong. I hope he's wrong. I hope we transfer over to a coastal and it blasts us. If it doesn't, it doesn't. The souffle will either rise or it won't. There's not a damn thing you can do about it.

I don't think NYC gets away from this without a foot of snow. I don't think we ever changeover to completely 100% sleet or freezing rain. Could we get some? Of course. But we still get snow with it. That's just my uneducated guess. When it snows, it snows HARD. All we need is six hours of 2 inches per hour.

18 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Not to be too critical of the thread but the severe cold part should make the dates read 1/24 to 1/26.

fixed

3 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

Image?

New York City 13

Boston 20

Philadelphia 0

DC 7

Hartford 16

Albany 18

1 minute ago, dmillz25 said:

Down to 9 at the Park

Thankfully the wind isn't bad. Otherwise, this would be a lot less tolerable.

Just now, jm1220 said:

We're still long range for that model, we're not within 24 hours of most of the event yet, more like 30 hours. If other guidance at 12z trends toward it then sure. 

The storm is scheduled to start around 5 am, I believe. Definitely almost 23 hours. I guess it depends on where you live, but we're definitely around 24 hours away.

Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said:

hrrr is the best short term model and it looks perfect hope it's right. 

HRRR is being retired when the RRFS goes live. The goal is to unify and improve upon models like HRRR, HREF, and NAM with a single, advanced system.

3 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

I’m actually glad to see it. What’s the famous scene in Citizen Kane… his old sled, Rosebud… a child’s memory of playing in the snow….saw a 78 year old retired superintendent recently, I asked him how they made school decisions. He said when it comes to snow he is like a kid again. He’d go out at 4 am with grounds supervisor to see three schools; if the grounds guy said close the schools he did.

Yeah, the Rosebud bit is poetic in theory, but let's be real—by the time you're a 78-year-old superintendent, that 4 a.m. snow check is less "childlike wonder" and more "please don't make me explain another lawsuit to the board." The grounds guy says close, you close: it's not nostalgia, it's CYA (cover your ass) wrapped in boots and a flashlight. Still, in a world of endless model runs and liability spreadsheets, there's something grimly satisfying about one last decision boiled down to "looks bad out there." 

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs is warmer and sleet gets into the NYC area faster.   Cut down totals to single digits

I wouldn't pay attention to the GFS inside of 24 hours. HRRR is my go to at this point, although I'm pretty giddy about the RRFS coming soon.

06z HRRR is incredible for our area as far as snow and icing. It shows half an inch of ice on Long Island.

3 am thoughts: When it does snow, it's going to be the heaviest snow some of us have ever seen in our lives. Think 2" - 3" per hour snow. Literally puking snow. 

Remember, the NAM is being retired.