TriPol

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

In general, a dominant first coastal low tends to pull the baroclinic zone offshore and the trailing wave further east. The NAM makes the second low the dominant low and that's the solution that would have the best chance of bringing appreciable snows to the coastal plain, not just eastern Long Island or southeastern New England. However, the NAM is just a single model and this is a single run of that model.

We just had a foot of snow. The Hudson River is almost frozen over. And Don is doing a pbp of the 84 hour NAM. Are we this desperate? Should we be looking at the JMA which scored a coup 20 years ago?

Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said:

i'm in the room, i can hear what you're saying!

At least the NY Post is in RJ's corner.

12 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

Should of had TriPol make the thread.

And risk Weather Geek's wrath? I think not.

https://nypost.com/2026/01/28/us-news/deadly-bomb-cyclone-headed-straight-for-nyc-and-could-batter-northeast-with-even-more-snow-even-colder-temps/

Deadly bomb cyclone headed straight for NYC — and could batter Northeast with even more snow, colder temps

2 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

I don't know why some folks think this is going to be set in stone after todays model runs - review the AFD's posted from Don for the Boxing Day storm less then 3 days in advance of the onset of precip

I love your optimism. I truly wonder though... why do we chase storms on here to just stare at different radars to look at echos and DBZ? Does anybody in here just go outside and enjoy the snow when it falls? 

Just now, MJO812 said:

Yep almost time to throw the towel. There will be more chances of snow ahead.

I heard something about the Polar Vortex coming in hot due to SSW. The usual suspects. I'm looking outside at the icy Hudson right now and wondering how much lower we can go in temperatures. Soon we're going to need icebreakers. I don't see a day above freezing in the 10 day outlook at all.

Maybe a thread shouldn't have been started a week out. Probably jinxed us.

2 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

Yes, where the hell you been? 

It's been 15 years. My memory from back then isn't the best.

23 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I have, 12/26/10, and it happened on 12/24.

You're saying the Boxing Day Blizzard was depicted on both the EURO and GFS as being over 150 miles southeast for days and then, within 48 hours, the models just started to show it move northwest and it eventually hit us?

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Too early to write it off but trend isnt good.

I have never seen a storm this far south and west of us on computer models just suddenly come back and hit us, which would be about 150+ mile shift west.

2 hours ago, Rjay said:

Nope

 

Stick a fork in it? 

NYC ferry service just announced that it’s suspending all ferries due to ice buildup in the East River.

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Common theme on the 12z cycle: The GFS and GGEM have brought the precipitation farther north and west. It's too soon to write off the storm for the NYC area and especially Long Island. Details still can't be resolved reliably this far out. 

Do you think we get a western movement?

Honestly? I'm ok with this. Let's move to Spring. If we're not going to get blasted with a 30+ inch storm, bring on the 60s!

Swing and a miss again. OTS.

Hmmm.... this looks different.

Out to 102 hours. A weak low off of the Carolinas.

06z GFS is running. Out to 72.

11 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

i think this will be the potential track of the storm.  just an educated guess.  one or the other 

Great. Sandy without the hurricane.

Storm cancel. Bermuda gets whalloped at this rate. GFS AI is even more west.

18 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

nobody cares about that model, look at euro ai

Careful or I'll give you the weenie ring.

4 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

I’m so glad that the models aren’t all aligned and showing a 2ft storm forum wide - social media is already insane with hype  

right now we have a storm signal / that’s it. 

Oh just wait until Friday. 

43 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

12z GEM has a 960 low south of Long Island. I can guarantee you if that verifies the Boston train will not be pulling into Grand Central on time, or perhaps ever.

The amount of damage that would do to Long Island beaches would take years to recover from. 

7 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

whatever euro Ai shows momentarily will be my forecast for this system. I won't change it!

Live by the run, die by the run. Try to open yourself up to changes. We've got the entire week ahead of us.

17 minutes ago, Jersey_Snowhole said:

Gefs 

That's a BIG storm. 

I wonder if there are analogs.