TriPol

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

March 2018 would like a word. 

The problem with this is we’re relying on a very fragile setup that could easily fall apart at this lead time and cold air is lacking. We need a dynamic system to create the cold air essentially and a favorable track. 

So would PDI and PDII.

PD Storm III. 

No one start a thread until Saturday.

27 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I am really happy we were able to sneak in the big benchmark system in late January. But we have reverted back to the dominant storm track pattern since 2018-2019. With the blizzard getting suppressed to our south, we have returned to the cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks. 
 

 

Too far north for suppressed systems, too far south for coastal huggers, too far east for lake effect snow. I'm not sure what we're too far west for, but I'm sure it's something.

So is that it? Are we done with the arctic air for the winter? 

14 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The temperature in Central Park has fallen to 8°. That is New York City's coldest temperature since February 4, 2023 when the mercury dipped all the way to 3°.

How low do you think we'll go? If we had zero wind, maybe we'd get to 0.

42 minutes ago, LoboLeader1 said:

Extreme Cold Watch

Issued: 1:03 PM Feb. 5, 2026 – National Weather Service

...EXTREME COLD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills of 20 below possible.

* WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey,
and southeast New York.

* WHEN...From Saturday evening through early Sunday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...The cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed
skin in as little as 30 minutes.

Twenty below possible? That’s not a weather alert, that’s a medical thriller. Frostbite in thirty minutes means I’ll be counting to twenty nine and going back inside. Cancel all outdoor ambition. If anyone needs me, I’ll be wrapped in cashmere, monitoring my extremities like a NASA launch.

Dear weather gods:

Please don't give us another Valentines Day sleetstorm.

Max 18f ... Min -1f ... Snow : 1.3"

5 minutes ago, SHELEG said:

Care to explain?

Inverted trough.

What's the over/under that Central Park goes below 0 this weekend?

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

It's fading and will continue to fade during February. There will likely be above normal tornado activity during March-May.

So if there was a year to go storm chasing... this could be the year.

49 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

January is concluding with a monthly mean temperature of 30.4° (3.3° below the 1991-2020 baseline and 2.2° below the 1981-2010 baseline). January 2026 is the coldest month since January 2022 when the monthly average temperature was 30.3°.

The January 24-31 period has had a mean temperature of 16.9°. That is the coldest eight-day period since December 31, 2017-January 7, 2018 when the eight-day average temperature was 16.4°. 

Temperatures should begin to moderate tomorrow into early next week and could briefly rise to or above freezing. Nevertheless, readings are likely to remain below normal into at least next weekend.

Overall, January 20th-February 3rd will likely be the coldest and perhaps snowiest two-week period this winter. The forecast WPO-/EPO-/AO-/PNA+ pattern is typically the coldest pattern in January and among the coldest during the first half of February. A persistently positive PNA will have above climatological risk of moderate or significant snowfalls. 

For perspective, the coldest two-week period this winter prior to January 20th was January 3-16, 2026 and January 4-17, 2026 with a mean temperature of 30.3°. The snowiest two-week period was December 14-27, 2025 when 7.2" of snow fell. Already, snowfall since January 20th has surpassed that figure.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter.

The SOI was +19.18 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.880 today. 

 

How much longer is the La Nina supposed to last for? Any chance it impacts tornado season in the midwest?

Who's ready to go ice skating on the East River?

36 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

NYC will be just 2 degrees warmer than the record high temp on this date.

Lots of records are forecasted to fall in Florida feel bad for vacationers.

The record high temp for Jan 30 in NYC is 64 degrees (set in 2006). To be 2 degrees warmer than the record high, we would need to be 66. The high for today will be 21 degrees.

10 hours ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

can't i just stay i promise i wont be annoying and ill talk less on the main thread and more on here??? please

Be a man. If you say something, stick with it. Do your time. You promised you'd leave for two weeks. Do it. No one around here will respect you if you stay.

I feel bad for the people in Virginia who thought they were going to get a 40 inch snowstorm at the start of the week. 

1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

nam? any changes? 

I thought you were taking two weeks off.

1 hour ago, eduggs said:

The ICON ensembles have about a tenth liquid back to NYC. So really just a few outlier individual members with a glancing hit. This is a little better than 6z and a little worse than 0z. Just enough interest for false hope.

If we use 100:1 ratios we have a decent snowstorm 

7 hours ago, Freezing Drizzle said:

NYCSNOW - During the winter of 1976 or 1977 there was an area-wide event dubbed the "One inch blizzard." It was exactly what they called it. You might be able to search for it.

Huh. That's what my wife calls me. Now I get where she got it from.

3 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

Jersey Shore Special.

Reminds me of December 1988. MacArthur airport reported a blizzard while NYC barely got flurries.

On 1/27/2026 at 9:03 AM, JonClaw said:

A short rant in here.

It seems like not having a major snowstorm in 5 years wiped all collective snow removal knowledge from some New Yorker brains:

• People shoveling snow into the street
• People waiting until after the storm is over to shovel
  • This includes their cars
• People not clearing snow off the roofs of their cars
• Crosswalks not getting shoveled
  • If it looks like another storm hits, I'm about to buy a shovel and do it my damn self. 

All that said, DSNY has done a good job!

The crosswalks not getting shoveled is bad. In Jersey City, you need to walk onto the actual rails for the light rail to be able to walk safely at Exchange Place.

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

In general, a dominant first coastal low tends to pull the baroclinic zone offshore and the trailing wave further east. The NAM makes the second low the dominant low and that's the solution that would have the best chance of bringing appreciable snows to the coastal plain, not just eastern Long Island or southeastern New England. However, the NAM is just a single model and this is a single run of that model.

We just had a foot of snow. The Hudson River is almost frozen over. And Don is doing a pbp of the 84 hour NAM. Are we this desperate? Should we be looking at the JMA which scored a coup 20 years ago?

Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said:

i'm in the room, i can hear what you're saying!

At least the NY Post is in RJ's corner.

12 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

Should of had TriPol make the thread.

And risk Weather Geek's wrath? I think not.

https://nypost.com/2026/01/28/us-news/deadly-bomb-cyclone-headed-straight-for-nyc-and-could-batter-northeast-with-even-more-snow-even-colder-temps/

Deadly bomb cyclone headed straight for NYC — and could batter Northeast with even more snow, colder temps