TriPol

2 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

Yes, where the hell you been? 

It's been 15 years. My memory from back then isn't the best.

23 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I have, 12/26/10, and it happened on 12/24.

You're saying the Boxing Day Blizzard was depicted on both the EURO and GFS as being over 150 miles southeast for days and then, within 48 hours, the models just started to show it move northwest and it eventually hit us?

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Too early to write it off but trend isnt good.

I have never seen a storm this far south and west of us on computer models just suddenly come back and hit us, which would be about 150+ mile shift west.

2 hours ago, Rjay said:

Nope

 

Stick a fork in it? 

NYC ferry service just announced that it’s suspending all ferries due to ice buildup in the East River.

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Common theme on the 12z cycle: The GFS and GGEM have brought the precipitation farther north and west. It's too soon to write off the storm for the NYC area and especially Long Island. Details still can't be resolved reliably this far out. 

Do you think we get a western movement?

Honestly? I'm ok with this. Let's move to Spring. If we're not going to get blasted with a 30+ inch storm, bring on the 60s!

Swing and a miss again. OTS.

Hmmm.... this looks different.

Out to 102 hours. A weak low off of the Carolinas.

06z GFS is running. Out to 72.

11 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

i think this will be the potential track of the storm.  just an educated guess.  one or the other 

Great. Sandy without the hurricane.

Storm cancel. Bermuda gets whalloped at this rate. GFS AI is even more west.

18 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

nobody cares about that model, look at euro ai

Careful or I'll give you the weenie ring.

4 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

I’m so glad that the models aren’t all aligned and showing a 2ft storm forum wide - social media is already insane with hype  

right now we have a storm signal / that’s it. 

Oh just wait until Friday. 

43 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

12z GEM has a 960 low south of Long Island. I can guarantee you if that verifies the Boston train will not be pulling into Grand Central on time, or perhaps ever.

The amount of damage that would do to Long Island beaches would take years to recover from. 

7 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

whatever euro Ai shows momentarily will be my forecast for this system. I won't change it!

Live by the run, die by the run. Try to open yourself up to changes. We've got the entire week ahead of us.

17 minutes ago, Jersey_Snowhole said:

Gefs 

That's a BIG storm. 

I wonder if there are analogs.

13 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Excellent. We had this same problem with the last storm. Then it came too far north.

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

So this would be a once in a   lifetime event(s) 2 MECS so close together

If this storm hits the way it looks, this would be a HECS. 

11 minutes ago, 203whiteout said:

This is NOT where you wana be 5/6 days out lol. This will end up a cutter if this trends anything like ANY big storm ever


.

I award you the weenie ring for today.

5 minutes ago, 203whiteout said:

This is NOT where you wana be 5/6 days out lol. This will end up a cutter if this trends anything like ANY big storm ever


.

Not sure how you equate a storm forming to our south with a cutter?? 

I know this is 06z and I haven't seen the 12z EURO yet... but holy cow. 

EURO AI is a swing and a miss. But we've got time. I would rather not be in the bullseye this far out.

I've seen weaker hurricanes than this before. 963 is at least Cat 2.