TriPol

When was the last time NYC didn't even have an inch of snow as of February 1? 

Well, let's get this winter over with. If it's not going to snow, then let's get to an early spring!

I gotta say, with so little snowfall, it sure is cloudy out a lot. This has been one of the most depressing winters weather-wise.

5 hours ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Wow urban heating at its finest, what storm was that? 

March 2018

I don’t care how much or how little snow we get this winter…. As long as this never happens again.

Talk about coal in our stockings, even the 384 hour GFS doesn't bring a historic, crippling blizzard to the immediate NYC Metro Area! Bah humbug!

38 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

today will be the coldest  record low maximum all winter in nyc..

Followed by probably the warmest New Years Eve on record

It's definitely raining outside! Holy cow those must be big drops!

Curious: What was the pattern in December 2015, which lead to the January 2016 snowstorm?

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

GEFS look phenomenal after the Friday storm 

Always 10 days away...

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

NYC snowfall

2000 12 29 -4.688…13.4”

1995 12 19 -4.353…11.5”

1962 12 31 -4.159…4.5”

Don't forget 2010 with the boxing day blizzard.

how does the euro look?

I would take this in a heart beat. No holds barred. Beautiful first snow for the city. Helps get us into the Holiday mood.

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Timber

what about the AO? What's the forecast for that?

Ready for the cold air... not natural for 70 degrees in November..

14 hours ago, bluewave said:

Warmer October in New England and cooler in the Mid-Atlantic. So the dividing line between warmer and cooler is right around NYC. Another big ridge over the record warm pool east of New England. This is the 2nd warmest October in Caribou, Maine so far.

ISP….+0.7

FRG…+0.7

HPN….+0.3

JFK…..-0.2

NYC…..-1.3

LGA……-1.4

EWR…..-1.9

 

Time Series Summary for CARIBOU WFO, ME - Month of Oct
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2017	51.4	0
2	2022	50.1	3
3	2021	49.9	0
4	1947	48.8	0
5	1968	48.4	0
6	1995	47.8	0
7	2007	47.6	0
8	1963	47.5	0
9	1970	47.4	0
10	2014	47.3	0

 

 

Jet fuel for a blizzard

Looks like rain for trick or treating.

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

There is a greater tendency for cold Octobers to be followed by near normal or colder than normal winters than for cold Octobers to be followed by snowy winters. Below is a summary from 1950-51 through 2021-2022 for New York City's Central Park. October 2022 appears likely to meet the threshold (56.5° or below mean temperature) for a cold October during the period covered. Numerous earlier Octobers were colder and that would skew the numbers given the warming that has occurred. Probabilities of snowier outcomes may also be modestly higher than shown, as winters have become snowier, in general (1991-2020 period) than during the early part of the covered period (1951-80).

For the cold October and November cases, the four winters with 40" or more snowfall had a December mean temperature below 38.5°. Three of the four cases with 15" or less snowfall had December mean temperatures at or above 38.5°. December 1958 was the single exception with a mean temperature of 29.3°.

 

Well, I'll invest in a good sweater rather than snowboots then. I just don't want a repeat of October 2011. That winter was miserable.

8 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

At New York City, the first 10 days of October had a mean temperature of 56.3°. That was 5.6° below normal.

Mean temperatures for select cities were:

Boston: 57.2°/0.9° below normal (coolest since 2016)
Bridgeport: 55.6°/4.5° below normal (coolest since 2003)
Islip: 56.7°/3.0° below normal (coolest since 2003)
New York City: 56.3°/5.6° below normal (coolest since 2003)
Newark: 53.9°/8.2° below normal (coolest since 1965) ***tied as the 3rd coolest first 10 days of October***
Philadelphia: 57.3°/5.7° below normal (coolest since 2003)

The remainder of the week will see milder temperatures. Highs will mainly reach the middle and upper 60s. The temperature could reach or exceed 70° during the peak of the warmth. However, more cold air could arrive late in the week sending readings below normal for another weekend into early next week.

Since 1950, 15/21 (71%) of cases with an ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -0.75°C or below were warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic region, including Philadelphia and New York City. 48% were 1° or more above average in New York City and 62% were 1° or more above average in Philadelphia. Just 14% were 1° or more below normal in New York City while 24% were 1° or more below normal in Philadelphia. One-third of cases in both cities saw a monthly mean temperature of 60° or above. Overall, such ENSO conditions also favored warmth in the Central and Northern Plains, along with dry conditions in the Plains States.

October 1988 was the coldest exception. The closing week of September saw the coldest Region 1+2 anomaly since September 1988. That development has increased the probability of a cooler outcome this month. A cooler than normal October is the base case. October 2022 is well on track for a colder than normal outcome. For example, 26/29 (89.7%) cases that saw October 1-10 wind up with a mean temperature of 56.5° or below in New York City, had a monthly mean temperature below the current normal average of 57.9°.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around October 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was +17.53 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +3.117 today. That broke the previous daily record high of +3.037 from 2001.

On October 7 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.936 (RMM). The October 6-adjusted amplitude was 0.817 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 72% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 55.9° (2.0° below normal).

 

What percentage of colder than normal octobers lead to cold and snowy winters?

6 minutes ago, nyrangers1022 said:

Hopefully we waste the -NAO now and have a comfortable winter so heating bill won't be so high

We've had so many warm winters... it's time for a real, cold, snowy winter.

Bring on the sunshine!

34 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Lol

Is this in addition to what we've already gotten??

Really coming down out there.

Good fireplace and jazz weather.

Any chance of flurries?