TriPol

Yikes. Hope this doesn't pan out.

Is there a potential frost on tap next weekend? Can't think of a worse time for farmers who have been hit hard this spring.

Not NYC related, but holy crap... Oklahoma got destroyed. Haven't seen a tornado that scary in a while.

Well, it looks like the Hudson River isn't frozen over anymore.

43 degrees. Chilly.

10 hours ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

today's weather sucks. If it's not going to snow, can we get some warm weather man

I never thought I'd see the day where YOU of all people cheer on warmth.

Looks like we're gonna get some rain this week. April showers bring May flowers and all that.

70 degrees on Thursday! Can't wait!

18z 384 hr. GFS says winter uncanceled! 4 feet of snow possible for NYC just in time for tax day!

If NYC can catch the beginning of a transition from ENSO neutral to a developing Super El Nino when it's cold... boy that winter would rock and roll for us. Constant threats of KU storms. It would be a winter Weenie's dream come true. 

Who ordered the hurricane in March?

Cool radar shot from Channel 7

4 hours ago, Santa Claus said:

just not enough CAPE Monday but i bet there’s at least one NJ tornado

Oh please. Spare me another EF-0 or EF-1 little whirlwind. 

7 hours ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

big thunderstorms and lighting sounds like the end of the world!

Interestingly enough, the end of the world won't happen with thunderstorms. It will happen when this planet is too warm to sustain life due the sun's increase in size. 

Is that... a severe thunderstorm warning less than 24 hours until it snows? I love Spring!

New York City B+

I would have really liked for that blizzard to make a move even 25 miles north and west. NYC would've gotten some amazing, record snow.

Enjoy the warm weather guys. May we reach 80 degrees quickly!

1 hour ago, Torchageddon said:

I haven't seen motion in a MI tornado like that before. The cloud of debris and dust at :37 looks like the condensation part. Fiercer than Dexter and Gaylord!

Reminds me of the 2011 Tuscaloosa–Birmingham tornado or the El Reno tornado in 2013 that everyone hates talking about. Hopefully the injured recover, but my god... I hate those multi-vortex tornadoes that have those "arms." Those are some of the most violent tornadoes out there.

Over 1.5" of badly needed rain at Central Park. Not bad at all.

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Only a die hard weenie shows a 360 hour 18z GFS showing a foot of snow in March.

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Tomorrow and Friday will see highs in the upper 30s to near 40° in New York City. A system passing to the south of the region could bring a little snow to the region late tomorrow or tomorrow night. It will turn briefly milder on Saturday to start the weekend. The temperature could approach or reach 50°.

Winter 2025-2026 will is on track to join Winters 1960-1961 and 1977-1978 as the only winters with two or more 10" snowstorms, a seasonal mean temperature of 32° or below and seasonal snowfall of 40.0" or above.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around February 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C. Neutral ENSO conditions have now developed. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring.

The SOI was +5.33 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.296 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 31.3° (4.6° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 4.0° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

Overall, Winter 2025-2026 is on track for a seasonal mean temperature of 31.9°. If a 32.0° or below seasonal mean temperature occurs, that would be the lowest winter mean temperature since Winter 2014-2015 when the mean temperature was 31.7°. Winter 2025-2026 would only become the fourth winter of the 21st century with a mean temperature of 32.0° or below.

Don, when was the last time we had a below normal January AND February during a dying La Nina?

7 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

i want more snow and cold and that's my final answer!

Come on dude. The sooner it warms up the sooner the opportunity there is for a category 5 hurricane to hit us!

Moderate snow falling the Bronx. 34 degrees.

29 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

As of 1 pm, Central Park reported 19.7" of snow. Yet, after 1 pm, there was additional measurable precipitation. Based on the additional precipitation, the final figure should probably be close to 21". We'll see what is reported tonight, as no 7 pm update was provided.

 

What's with that? Why won't they update the Central Park tally?

19 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Scoring (preliminary) _ Allsnow Blizzard snow predictions _ Feb 22-23 2026

... these are based on preliminary estimates of final totals as shown ...

... note EWR has a lower total than was being shown earlier, perhaps this will be adjusted again later ... it resulted in a change from earlier sacalculations in the top two low error squared totals as well as several other rankings. 

 

RANK _FORECASTER ________ NYC_LGA_ISP_JFK_EWR _________ (error sq) ____ (errors) _________ TOTAL _ rank

__________ actual storm totals ______ 19.7 _22.5 _29.1 _20.1 _25.1

_01__MJ0812__________________19.4_22.0_27.4_22.7_21.3 ______ ____24.43 ___ 0.3 _0.5 _1.7 _2.6 _3.8 ___ 8.9 _ 1

_02__hudsonvalley21 _________ 18.9_19.7_26.2_23.7_24.4 ______ ____ 30.34 ___ 0.8 _2.8 _2.9 _3.6 _0.7 __ 10.8 _ 2

_03__NsWx516 _______________ 18.0_20.0_25.0_21.0_23.0 ______ ____31.17_____ 2.0 _2.0 _5.0 _2.0 _6.0 __ 11.3 _ 3

_04__hmdeutsch98 ___________ 21.1_22.2_24.8_18.1_20.8 ______ ____43.03 ___ 1.4 _ 0.3 _4.3 _2.0 _4.3 __ 12.3 _ 4

_05__dmillz25 _________________21.1_20.6_24.6_19.6_20.5 ______ ____47.23 ____ 1.4 _1.9 _4.5 _0.5 _4.6 ___ 12.9 _ 5

_06__UKWeatherGeek ________ 22.4_23.2_23.7_19.4_21.1 ______ ___ 53.43 ____ 2.7 _0.7 _5.4 _0.7 _4.0 ___ 13.5 _ 6

_07__CPcantmeasuresnow_____19.8_ 19.4_24.5_21.0_19.6 ______ ___ 61.84 ____ 0.1 _3.1 _ 4.6 _0.9 _5.5 ___ 14.2 _ 7

_08__jaysoner _________________17.8_19.9_ 23.5_20.6_20.5 ______ ___63.14 ____ 1.9 _2.6 _5.6 _0.5_4.6 __ 15.2 _ 10

_(08)__ NWS 07z fcsts _______20.0_21.5_23.3_22.9_20.5 ___ ___ 63.73____ 0.3 _1.0 _5.8 _2.8 _4.6 __ 12.9 _ (5)

_09__WeatherGeek2025 _____ 21.0_21.0_26.0_22.0_18.0 ______ ____ 67.57 _____ 1.3 _1.5 _3.1 _1.9 _ 7.1 ___ 14.9 _ 9

_10__kat5hurricane ___________25.2_23.8_30.1_26.5_24.7 _____ ____74.06 _____ 5.5 _1.3 _ 1.0 _6.4 _0.4___ 14.6 _ 8

(11)____Consensus (median)__18.0_19.2_23.6_20.0_19.0 ______ ____ 81.25 _____ 1.7 _3.3 _5.5 _ 0.1_ 6.1 ___ 16.7 _(11)

_11__NegNAO _________________15.8_17.9_27.5_22.6_18.5 _______ ___ 88.74 _____ 3.9 _4.6 _1.6 _2.5_6.6  __ 19.2 _ t-14

_12__JM1220 _________________ 18.4_19.1_23.2_20.6_18.7 _______ ___ 89.27 _____ 1.3 _3.4 _5.9 _0.5_6.4 ___ 17.5 _ t-11

_13__A_Status _________________17.2_18.4_23.8_21.2_18.9 _______ ___ 90.80 _____ 2.5 _4.1 _5.3 _ 1.1 _6.2 ___ 19.2 _ t-14

_14__Stormlover74 ___________ 18.7_20.2_21.3 _19.1_ 19.7 _______ ___ 97.29 _____ 1.0 _2.3 _7.8 _ 1.0 _5.4 ___ 17.5 _ t-11

_15__DonSutherland1 _________17.8_18.5_23.0_20.0_18.0 _______ ___ 107.24 _____ 1.9 _4.0 _6.1 _ 0.1_ 7.1 ___ 19.2 _ t-14

_16__Northshorekid __________ 19.8_19.2_22.8_20.9_17.4 _______ ___110.52 _____ 0.1 _3.3 _6.3 _0.8_ 7.7 ___ 18.2 _ 13

_17__RJay ____________________ 17.0_19.0_ 21.0_20.0_19.0 _______ ___ 122.37 _____ 2.7 _3.5 _8.1 _0.1_6.1 ___ 20.5 _ t-18

_18__brooklynwx99 __________ 18.6_19.2_21.1 _20.3_18.1 _______ ___ 125.14 _____ 1.1 _3.3 _8.0 _0.2_ 7.0 ___ 19.6 _ 17

_19__Prue11 ___________________ 15.0_18.0_23.0_17.0_19.0 _______ ___ 126.37 _____ 4.7 _4.5 _6.1 _3.1_ 6.1 ___ 24.5 _ 21

_20__Snowlover11 _____________18.0_19.0_22.0_20.0_17.0 ______ ___ 131.17 ______ 1.7 _ 3.5 _7.1 _0.1 _ 8.1 ___ 20.5 _ t-18

_21__hooralph _________________15.1_18.2_22.5_19.8_17.5 _______ ___ 141.06 _____ 4.6 _4.3 _6.6 _0.3_ 7.6 ___ 23.4 _ 20

_22__Juliancolton _____________13.4_15.7_24.0_16.2_21.3 _______ ___ 141.59 _____ 6.3 _6.8 _5.1 _3.9_ 3.8 ___ 25.9 _ 23

_23__SACRUS _________________16.0_17.4_20.0_19.1_18.6 _______ ___ 165.76 _____ 3.7 _5.1 _9.1 _1.0_ 6.5 ___ 25.4 _ 22

_24__Roger Smith ____________ 16.5_17.0_23.9_14.5_16.8 _______ ___ 167.78 _____3.2 _5.5 _5.2 _5.6_ 8.3 ___ 27.8 _ 24

_25__coastalplainsnowman___ 28.0_30.0_31.0_29.0_32.0 _____ ___ 255.57 _____8.3 _7.5 _1.9 _8.9 _6.9 ___ 33.5 _ 26

_26__ TriPOL __________________29.8_25.0_32.0_33.0_26.0 ____ ___ 283.89 ____ 10.1 _2.5 _2.9_12.9 _0.9 ___ 29.3 _ 25

_27__BxEngine ________________ 12.3_14.9_22.0_17.5_12.8 _______ ___320.98 _____ 7.4 _7.6 _7.1 _2.6_ 12.3 ___ 37.0 _ 27

_28__Stormpc _________________ 11.8_14.4_16.7_ 12.0_14.8 _______ ___453.48 _____ 7.9 _8.1 _12.4 _8.1_10.3 ___ 46.8 _ 28

_29__WintryMixmaster ________ 12.9_13.0_15.8_13.9_ 13.2 ______ ___ 493.43 _____ 6.8 _9.5_13.3 _6.2_11.9 ___ 47.7 _ 29

_30__dseagull __________________9.4_12.5_16.0_13.3 _11.8 _______ ___ 600.83 _____10.3_10.0_13.1 _6.8_13.3 ___ 53.5 _ 30

<<< FORECASTS (or edits) AFTER THIS POST WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN CONTEST SCORING >>>

30 entries received by deadline

consensus does not include NWS forecasts and your rank is not affected by their rank. 

 

Scores and rankings that two late entries would have received

 

wannabehippie _____________ 19.5 _ 21.5 _26.5 _ 22.0 _22.5 ________ 18.17 ______ 8.3 __ would have ranked 1st, 1st

nesussxwx1 _________________13.8 _ 17.9 _ 18.6 _ 17.0 _ 15.5 ________ 267.99 _____33.7 __ would have ranked 27th, 28th**

 

** ranks if both late forecasts participated. 

 

NOTES:

 

1. The table above is subject to adjustment if any daily snowfall values as listed so far are changed by tonight's CF6 final.

2. Best forecasts are shown in red highlight (in forecasts and in errors)

At least I beat BxEngine!