TriPol

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I wouldn't be surprised if we had a carry over el nino, like 87-88, in 27-28. But it's going to end early, and we're going to get a head start to a strong la nina like in 88-89, in 28-29. It will probably be a one-year la nina, but a very strong one. We'll get the 3rd el nino in the early 2030's, like 91-92 (but probably not with a major volcano).

Seems like you got a good grasp on what the future holds! Can you tell me tonight's lottery numbers? Powerball is at $786 million. 

3 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Yes, living humans haven't seen this (I'm sure dead ones have though at some point) and I'm sure 99.99% wouldn't even know it is happening since pretty much nothing in their life is going to change over the next 10 months because of it. Many alive today will have lived through the stongest La Nina and El Nino ever, and not even know. Pretty funny really when you think about it. 

I think some people know how hot its been and that there's an El Nino and correlate with global warming. That's about as far as it goes.

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Getting a lower end super El Niño and an all-time record breaker only three years apart is a first for our modern climate era. 

What a time to be alive. And if this leads to a historic, record breaking Super La Nina, I'm even more all in.

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

It’s certainly possible. These impressive WWBs keep increasing and pushing the record warm pool further east. The next one coming up will also break records. 
 

 

We are witnessing and tracking something no other living human being has ever seen before... it's amazing.

1 minute ago, George001 said:

He needs to go outside and touch grass, in the real world if he told say his coworkers, friends family etc that there’s an incoming historic super Nino and it would lead to a mild winter in the east, most people are gonna respond to that with a “fuck yeah I’m not gonna have to shovel as much”…. I’m not happy about it because I ski, but in my experience most people prefer warm with less snow. I mean hes right that there is a historic super Nino coming, but a mind that ruminates about everyone who disagrees with you is not a mind optimized for efficiency. It’s a waste of time. Some people are going to be delusional and wishcast, we don’t do that on this subforum, he should grow up and just get over it and not give people he doesn’t like the time of day. They will continue to do what they do no matter what he says or what tantrum Adam throws, and Adam is going to do what he does. It is what it is. 

Super El Nino gives us a super sub-tropical jet which, if merged with the pacific jet or arctic jet during a cold time in december, january or feb, can give us historic blizzards. There is going to be an incredibly active STJ Autumn/Winter. We just need a bit of cold air to go with that and BOOM. We have never ever seen anything like this before -- it's going to be very exciting to watch. 

26 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Latest Euro update has the Nino 3.4 ONI values peaking around +4. The Nino 1.2 ONI SSTs are now approaching +5. The longer range plumes have Nino 1+2 SSTs remaining elevated into next spring and summer. 
 

 

Just a feeling, but I think the EURO is underdoing Nino 3.4. 

Just now, so_whats_happening said:

No one forced you to respond either yet somehow you felt it was important.

I'm trying to read about a historic El Nino. That's all I care about. I just want to read it in peace and not read posts about a meteorologist calling out other people who are not meteorologists because of something they did. I think that's what we all want, yes? So you delete your post attacking snowman19 and I'll delete my posts as well and we can all go back to tracking a once in a lifetime weather event. 

Just now, so_whats_happening said:

We are on page 127 of this thread and it is August nearly 50% of these pages are filled with crap. 

There are other weather forums. No one is forcing you to be here.

1 minute ago, so_whats_happening said:

You need to relax man twitter has you all up in a bind over nothing. You rage out on every poster who questions you. Fix those issues man.

Can we get back to El Nino and not call people out online? 

Just now, rclab said:

Through 06:51, .68 for Central Park. Heaviest hour .34. As always ….

 

Doesn't rain, doesn't snow... never too hot, never too cold at Central Park. Incredible.

Well if this keeps up, we're going to have incredibly vibrant fall foliage!

Hoping this is a start of a new cooler, wetter trend for us. 

Bone dry here in the Bronx

The biggest heat dome on the planet!

Anything from long range models on a major pattern change coming up in the US that breaks this heat dome apart?

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Very strong signal for a warm east this December….El Niño/+QBO has been a slam dunk for that since 1979. And I would be shocked if the southwest isn’t wet this winter given the super Nino/++PMM combo that really juices the STJ

Warm how? Am I going to need an air conditioner?

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

A cooler regime is in place and will remain in place through the remainder of July. Highs will generally reach the lower 80s through much or all of the remainder of July. The warmest spots could reach the middle 80s on occasion.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.1°C for the week centered around July 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.82°C. The ongoing strong El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer.

The SOI was -17.36 yesterday. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.144 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 72% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.6° (0.9° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.1° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

Do you think the heat dome ever rebuilds over us in August and we get upper 90s to 100s again?

Why isn't tomorrow's storm generating more buzz on here? 3-6 inches of rain can be catastrophic.

5 hours ago, Keith Central PA said:

Weak sauce, dont expect a major hurricane with the ragging nino

Yeah but Texas does NOT need more rain

Loud loud thunder here 

8 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Another Aleutian ridge! Since the El Nino began, N. Pacific ridge vs troughs lasting 5 days more more: 6-0. July will likely be the 6th consecutive month of -PNA

Hopefully there will be a big one in October!

Don't weenie tag me but, boy if we can get a phase between the the polar jet stream and what's sure to be an extremely active subtropical jet stream this winter, it could really get a historic snowstorm.

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

I don't think you can even consider this to be an actual heat wave - maybe a minimal heat wave  - nothing compared to 2 weeks ago

NYC is forecast to hit 100 degrees tomorrow. I think that's a heatwave with today, Thursday and Friday projected to hit 90+.

Hummm... wondering if this heat wave is muted because of the smoke and haze in the sky. Maybe we won't get to 100 tomorrow.

2 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

Shocked that they're only going with a heat advisory and not a warning.

What goes up, must come down... right? Wonder if we're in store for a Super LA Nina for 2027 - 2028.