TriPol

New York City B+

I would have really liked for that blizzard to make a move even 25 miles north and west. NYC would've gotten some amazing, record snow.

Enjoy the warm weather guys. May we reach 80 degrees quickly!

1 hour ago, Torchageddon said:

I haven't seen motion in a MI tornado like that before. The cloud of debris and dust at :37 looks like the condensation part. Fiercer than Dexter and Gaylord!

Reminds me of the 2011 Tuscaloosa–Birmingham tornado or the El Reno tornado in 2013 that everyone hates talking about. Hopefully the injured recover, but my god... I hate those multi-vortex tornadoes that have those "arms." Those are some of the most violent tornadoes out there.

Over 1.5" of badly needed rain at Central Park. Not bad at all.

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Only a die hard weenie shows a 360 hour 18z GFS showing a foot of snow in March.

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Tomorrow and Friday will see highs in the upper 30s to near 40° in New York City. A system passing to the south of the region could bring a little snow to the region late tomorrow or tomorrow night. It will turn briefly milder on Saturday to start the weekend. The temperature could approach or reach 50°.

Winter 2025-2026 will is on track to join Winters 1960-1961 and 1977-1978 as the only winters with two or more 10" snowstorms, a seasonal mean temperature of 32° or below and seasonal snowfall of 40.0" or above.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around February 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C. Neutral ENSO conditions have now developed. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring.

The SOI was +5.33 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.296 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 31.3° (4.6° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 4.0° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

Overall, Winter 2025-2026 is on track for a seasonal mean temperature of 31.9°. If a 32.0° or below seasonal mean temperature occurs, that would be the lowest winter mean temperature since Winter 2014-2015 when the mean temperature was 31.7°. Winter 2025-2026 would only become the fourth winter of the 21st century with a mean temperature of 32.0° or below.

Don, when was the last time we had a below normal January AND February during a dying La Nina?

7 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

i want more snow and cold and that's my final answer!

Come on dude. The sooner it warms up the sooner the opportunity there is for a category 5 hurricane to hit us!

Moderate snow falling the Bronx. 34 degrees.

29 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

As of 1 pm, Central Park reported 19.7" of snow. Yet, after 1 pm, there was additional measurable precipitation. Based on the additional precipitation, the final figure should probably be close to 21". We'll see what is reported tonight, as no 7 pm update was provided.

 

What's with that? Why won't they update the Central Park tally?

19 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Scoring (preliminary) _ Allsnow Blizzard snow predictions _ Feb 22-23 2026

... these are based on preliminary estimates of final totals as shown ...

... note EWR has a lower total than was being shown earlier, perhaps this will be adjusted again later ... it resulted in a change from earlier sacalculations in the top two low error squared totals as well as several other rankings. 

 

RANK _FORECASTER ________ NYC_LGA_ISP_JFK_EWR _________ (error sq) ____ (errors) _________ TOTAL _ rank

__________ actual storm totals ______ 19.7 _22.5 _29.1 _20.1 _25.1

_01__MJ0812__________________19.4_22.0_27.4_22.7_21.3 ______ ____24.43 ___ 0.3 _0.5 _1.7 _2.6 _3.8 ___ 8.9 _ 1

_02__hudsonvalley21 _________ 18.9_19.7_26.2_23.7_24.4 ______ ____ 30.34 ___ 0.8 _2.8 _2.9 _3.6 _0.7 __ 10.8 _ 2

_03__NsWx516 _______________ 18.0_20.0_25.0_21.0_23.0 ______ ____31.17_____ 2.0 _2.0 _5.0 _2.0 _6.0 __ 11.3 _ 3

_04__hmdeutsch98 ___________ 21.1_22.2_24.8_18.1_20.8 ______ ____43.03 ___ 1.4 _ 0.3 _4.3 _2.0 _4.3 __ 12.3 _ 4

_05__dmillz25 _________________21.1_20.6_24.6_19.6_20.5 ______ ____47.23 ____ 1.4 _1.9 _4.5 _0.5 _4.6 ___ 12.9 _ 5

_06__UKWeatherGeek ________ 22.4_23.2_23.7_19.4_21.1 ______ ___ 53.43 ____ 2.7 _0.7 _5.4 _0.7 _4.0 ___ 13.5 _ 6

_07__CPcantmeasuresnow_____19.8_ 19.4_24.5_21.0_19.6 ______ ___ 61.84 ____ 0.1 _3.1 _ 4.6 _0.9 _5.5 ___ 14.2 _ 7

_08__jaysoner _________________17.8_19.9_ 23.5_20.6_20.5 ______ ___63.14 ____ 1.9 _2.6 _5.6 _0.5_4.6 __ 15.2 _ 10

_(08)__ NWS 07z fcsts _______20.0_21.5_23.3_22.9_20.5 ___ ___ 63.73____ 0.3 _1.0 _5.8 _2.8 _4.6 __ 12.9 _ (5)

_09__WeatherGeek2025 _____ 21.0_21.0_26.0_22.0_18.0 ______ ____ 67.57 _____ 1.3 _1.5 _3.1 _1.9 _ 7.1 ___ 14.9 _ 9

_10__kat5hurricane ___________25.2_23.8_30.1_26.5_24.7 _____ ____74.06 _____ 5.5 _1.3 _ 1.0 _6.4 _0.4___ 14.6 _ 8

(11)____Consensus (median)__18.0_19.2_23.6_20.0_19.0 ______ ____ 81.25 _____ 1.7 _3.3 _5.5 _ 0.1_ 6.1 ___ 16.7 _(11)

_11__NegNAO _________________15.8_17.9_27.5_22.6_18.5 _______ ___ 88.74 _____ 3.9 _4.6 _1.6 _2.5_6.6  __ 19.2 _ t-14

_12__JM1220 _________________ 18.4_19.1_23.2_20.6_18.7 _______ ___ 89.27 _____ 1.3 _3.4 _5.9 _0.5_6.4 ___ 17.5 _ t-11

_13__A_Status _________________17.2_18.4_23.8_21.2_18.9 _______ ___ 90.80 _____ 2.5 _4.1 _5.3 _ 1.1 _6.2 ___ 19.2 _ t-14

_14__Stormlover74 ___________ 18.7_20.2_21.3 _19.1_ 19.7 _______ ___ 97.29 _____ 1.0 _2.3 _7.8 _ 1.0 _5.4 ___ 17.5 _ t-11

_15__DonSutherland1 _________17.8_18.5_23.0_20.0_18.0 _______ ___ 107.24 _____ 1.9 _4.0 _6.1 _ 0.1_ 7.1 ___ 19.2 _ t-14

_16__Northshorekid __________ 19.8_19.2_22.8_20.9_17.4 _______ ___110.52 _____ 0.1 _3.3 _6.3 _0.8_ 7.7 ___ 18.2 _ 13

_17__RJay ____________________ 17.0_19.0_ 21.0_20.0_19.0 _______ ___ 122.37 _____ 2.7 _3.5 _8.1 _0.1_6.1 ___ 20.5 _ t-18

_18__brooklynwx99 __________ 18.6_19.2_21.1 _20.3_18.1 _______ ___ 125.14 _____ 1.1 _3.3 _8.0 _0.2_ 7.0 ___ 19.6 _ 17

_19__Prue11 ___________________ 15.0_18.0_23.0_17.0_19.0 _______ ___ 126.37 _____ 4.7 _4.5 _6.1 _3.1_ 6.1 ___ 24.5 _ 21

_20__Snowlover11 _____________18.0_19.0_22.0_20.0_17.0 ______ ___ 131.17 ______ 1.7 _ 3.5 _7.1 _0.1 _ 8.1 ___ 20.5 _ t-18

_21__hooralph _________________15.1_18.2_22.5_19.8_17.5 _______ ___ 141.06 _____ 4.6 _4.3 _6.6 _0.3_ 7.6 ___ 23.4 _ 20

_22__Juliancolton _____________13.4_15.7_24.0_16.2_21.3 _______ ___ 141.59 _____ 6.3 _6.8 _5.1 _3.9_ 3.8 ___ 25.9 _ 23

_23__SACRUS _________________16.0_17.4_20.0_19.1_18.6 _______ ___ 165.76 _____ 3.7 _5.1 _9.1 _1.0_ 6.5 ___ 25.4 _ 22

_24__Roger Smith ____________ 16.5_17.0_23.9_14.5_16.8 _______ ___ 167.78 _____3.2 _5.5 _5.2 _5.6_ 8.3 ___ 27.8 _ 24

_25__coastalplainsnowman___ 28.0_30.0_31.0_29.0_32.0 _____ ___ 255.57 _____8.3 _7.5 _1.9 _8.9 _6.9 ___ 33.5 _ 26

_26__ TriPOL __________________29.8_25.0_32.0_33.0_26.0 ____ ___ 283.89 ____ 10.1 _2.5 _2.9_12.9 _0.9 ___ 29.3 _ 25

_27__BxEngine ________________ 12.3_14.9_22.0_17.5_12.8 _______ ___320.98 _____ 7.4 _7.6 _7.1 _2.6_ 12.3 ___ 37.0 _ 27

_28__Stormpc _________________ 11.8_14.4_16.7_ 12.0_14.8 _______ ___453.48 _____ 7.9 _8.1 _12.4 _8.1_10.3 ___ 46.8 _ 28

_29__WintryMixmaster ________ 12.9_13.0_15.8_13.9_ 13.2 ______ ___ 493.43 _____ 6.8 _9.5_13.3 _6.2_11.9 ___ 47.7 _ 29

_30__dseagull __________________9.4_12.5_16.0_13.3 _11.8 _______ ___ 600.83 _____10.3_10.0_13.1 _6.8_13.3 ___ 53.5 _ 30

<<< FORECASTS (or edits) AFTER THIS POST WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN CONTEST SCORING >>>

30 entries received by deadline

consensus does not include NWS forecasts and your rank is not affected by their rank. 

 

Scores and rankings that two late entries would have received

 

wannabehippie _____________ 19.5 _ 21.5 _26.5 _ 22.0 _22.5 ________ 18.17 ______ 8.3 __ would have ranked 1st, 1st

nesussxwx1 _________________13.8 _ 17.9 _ 18.6 _ 17.0 _ 15.5 ________ 267.99 _____33.7 __ would have ranked 27th, 28th**

 

** ranks if both late forecasts participated. 

 

NOTES:

 

1. The table above is subject to adjustment if any daily snowfall values as listed so far are changed by tonight's CF6 final.

2. Best forecasts are shown in red highlight (in forecasts and in errors)

At least I beat BxEngine!

470 
WOXX11 KWNP 232141
WARK05

Space Weather Message Code: WARK05
Serial Number: 2200
Issue Time: 2026 Feb 23 2139 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2026 Feb 23 2140 UTC
Valid To: 2026 Feb 24 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

# Issued by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Recent messages, data, and help at http://swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/
# Send questions to [email protected]

Just now, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

close 38.6

I believe Don Surhterland can confirm that we usually see 40 inch winters in pairs. Sometimes they even come in 3. 

1 minute ago, weathermedic said:

Is that central park at 21.8?

Don't think Central Park broke the record, but this storm damn well tried hard enough to. Hopefully it'll be in the top 5.

@NWSNewYorkNY 5:28am:

We observed a 3"/hr snowfall rate between 4am-5am in the large heavy band over eastern Long Island. Our snowfall total stands at 14.9" as of 5am. Heavy snow still falling.

2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

gm what did i miss

I'm rereading the thread and have stopped on a conversation about eating rocks daily.

Just now, cliftonite said:

How much more do you think we get?

I couldn't even guess. Definitely at least 6 inches. Maybe even up to a foot. Wherever those bands decide to park themselves.

3 minutes ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said:

The low itself not moving due east is really starting to snow benefits. Its still pushing moisture west. Nne rn.

I never thought the NAM and GFS would outclass the EURO. Glad people pulled the trigger.

18 inches in Freehold, NJ.

3 minutes ago, jysamuel said:

This forums wet dream 

NYC is about to get obliterated. 

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
341 AM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
There have been no changes to headlines and only some
adjustments to snowfall, mainly over western portions of the
Lower Hudson Valley.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Blizzard conditions will continue through the morning hours,
gradually winding down in the afternoon.

2) Additional minor coastal flooding possible with the Monday
afternoon high tide cycle. There is a low probability of major
coastal/shoreline impacts along the south shore of western Long
Island, Twin Forks of LI, and north shore of Long Island.

3) A passing warm front will bring some light snow and rain on
Wednesday. A stronger low passing close by will bring additional
wintry precip Thursday into Thursday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...

A major winter storm will continue to impact the area early this
morning with multiple bands of heavy snow expected to pivot NW
off the ocean and across the area. The next 6 hours are expected
to feature some of the heaviest snowfall with hourly rates of 2
to 3 inches likely. What is a bigger challenge is exactly how
far west these bands get and how long they stay over a
particular location. Outside of these bands, there is subsidence
and lighter snowfall. Much of the area has seen anywhere from 7
to 14 inches, but there were lower amounts across northern and
western portions of the Lower Hudson Valley. We can expect
another 6 to 12 inches, much of which will come the next 6 to 9
hours. The back edge across western Orange County looks like it
will be on the low end, perhaps another 4 inches. Hires guidance
pointing to this area to be along the back edge in the
subsidence of the storm. In addition, don`t be surprised to see
a brief flash of lightning in the heavy bands. There have been
reports from the public as well from lightning detection.

As the storm pulls away late this morning into the afternoon,
bands on the backside will dissipate, but it could take some
time. Hires guidance locking on to an area from eastern portions
of the Lower Hudson Valley and SW CT southward in the NYC/NJ
metro. These bands in past historic storms can often be areas
of exceptionally high rates, but can be a challenge to forecast.
Any lingering snow bands should dissipate by early evening.

The wind forecast has changed little with peak winds being this
morning into early this afternoon. Gusts of 40 to 60 mph can be
expected through the morning hours, with the upper end across
far eastern LI and SE CT. Winds will then gradually ramp down
through the afternoon into the evening.

The good news is the airmass is not exceptionally cold with
highs around freezing for most locations. Wind chills values
will be in the teens to around 20.

Woke up... all I can say is... WOW.

This is Christmas to us weenies.

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

How do you have 8.8 at Central Park, but almost 12 inches in Battery Park?

13 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

anyone know if central park could hit 20 for the month of february. I put some money on gemini 57% i think it hits!

Month of February? I think it's going to hit at least 20 from this storm.