TriPol

18 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Can you elaborate on the physics of why a cyclone would be pulled east, relative to track forecasts, while approaching the west coast of FL?  Obviously the track moved east relative to the forecast track with Ian, especially in the last 1-2 days before landfall (which is where we are now), but one could imagine many reasons for such shifts.  Thanks.  

The trajectory of a tropical cyclone is predominantly governed by the ambient steering flow, a term that encapsulates the mean environmental wind field in which the cyclone is embedded. Deviations in this steering flow, such as an anomalously robust westerly component, can induce a corresponding easterly shift in the cyclone's track. Synoptic-scale anticyclonic systems also exert a significant influence on cyclone trajectory. The spatial orientation and dynamical strength of a high-pressure system situated to the north or northeast of a cyclone can act as a steering mechanism, directing the cyclone on a more westerly course. Conversely, a weakening or lateral displacement of the anticyclonic system may permit a more easterly trajectory for the cyclone. Upper-level atmospheric features, including troughs and ridges, further modulate cyclone tracks. An approaching trough from the westerly direction can effectively "capture" the cyclone, inducing a poleward and often eastward deflection from the originally forecasted path. It's imperative to acknowledge the inherent uncertainties associated with numerical weather prediction models. These uncertainties stem from various sources, including but not limited to, initial condition errors, approximations in the model's physical parameterizations, and the intrinsically chaotic nature of the atmosphere. While the fidelity of these models generally improves as the temporal proximity to the event decreases, unforeseen deviations in the cyclone's track can still manifest. Oceanic parameters, such as sea surface temperatures and underlying currents, can also exert an indirect influence on cyclone trajectory by modulating its intensity. An intensifying cyclone may interact differently with the ambient steering flow and other synoptic to mesoscale features, thereby altering its anticipated path. As the cyclone nears a landmass, the increased surface friction can induce structural changes in the cyclone's inner core, which may, in turn, result in last-minute alterations to its track. Additionally, microscale geographical features, such as bays, inlets, and even expansive urban areas, can impart localized effects on the cyclone's trajectory, although these influences are generally subordinate to the aforementioned larger-scale dynamical factors.

38 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

August will close out with cooler than normal readings. Tomorrow could see highs only in the 70s across much of the region. Showers and a period of rain are likely tomorrow night into Wednesday.

Out West, Phoenix recorded a 117° high temperature, which tied the August record. Brownsville reached 106°, which tied that city's all-time high.

Tomorrow into tomorrow night, Idalia will likely undergo rapid intensification. It could make Florida landfall as a Category 3 or 4 hurricane.  

In the long-range, it remains more likely than not that ridges will wax and wane over the central and southern U.S., producing more heat in areas that have seen a lot of it this summer. If that idea holds, the Northeast will likely only see some short-lived periods of warmer or much warmer than normal temperatures through at least the first week of September. Some short-lived warmth could arrive late in the first week of September. More sustained unseasonable warmth could develop afterward.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.5°C for the week centered around August 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.23°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter.

The SOI was -10.99 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.794 today.

On August 26 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.148 (RMM). The August 25-adjusted amplitude was 1.180 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.8° (1.3° below normal).

 

When was the last time we had a colder than normal august?

3 minutes ago, Derecho! said:

Loops back into the Gulf (never intensifies) and wanders over New Orleans at HR 222. 

Shades of Hurricane Elena 1985. As a former resident of Tampa, that storm was talked about A LOT in the late '80s and '90s.

53 minutes ago, TPAwx said:

Up from last advisory

 

That's going to move down. I think Tampa is the bullseye. Maybe just north.

9 hours ago, Dan76 said:

LOL the blue stuff 

The 384 hour GFS has upgraded from shrooms to crack!

A bit a breeze with current temp around 78 degrees. 35% humidity, 50 degree dew point. It feels gorgeous outside. 

Incoming!

That was fun. Let's do it again sometime soon!

Coming down in buckets in Bayonne.

21 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Is this what you are looking for?

That better change come October or NYC area is in for another warm, snowless winter.

Dry as a bone in south bayonne.

This summer is a little more active than last summer thunderstorm wise. Perhaps, just perhaps, that means winter will be more active as well. I mean it can't get less active than last winter.

9 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

Big heat coming!

Source?

Will this line hold together as it approaches NYC?

Another round of rain and storms on the way

https://www.cbsnews.com/newyork/news/remembering-our-beloved-colleague-elise-finch/

It is with profound sadness that we share news of the passing of our beloved Elise Dione Finch Henriques.   

Elise has been a friend and team member at WCBS for 16 years. She first joined the team in 2007 as our weekend meteorologist and was most recently on the morning news with Mary Calvi and Chris Wragge. In September, Elise joined Cindy Hsu on the 9 a.m. newscast.

Elise was a gifted and consummate professional who took great care with her work. She was also a wonderful ambassador in the community, including her hometown of Mount Vernon. 

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Bring on winter

What winter? The ocean and sea temps are going to be too hot. There's not going to be enough ice at the arctic to bring down significant cold fronts. Say hello to 70 degrees on Christmas.

This was kinda meh in Hoboken. Not even a half inch of rain.

3 hours ago, forkyfork said:

enjoy the brief window tomorrow 

Any chance of lowering that dew point below 60? It's moderately uncomfortable without the AC.

So this is all gonna be gone tomorrow, right?

8 minutes ago, Jacob brooklyn said:

Who's in the smoke jackpot zone?

How much for Philly?

Is this going to be gone tomorrow?

Canada could use a nice tropical storm

Just look at all that warm water from Spain to the central Atlantic. Gonna be a busy year if El Nino doesn't stop it.