TriPol

5 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Don’t get sucked in lol. expecting more than 3” will lead to disappointment. 

That’s what she said.

EURO obliterates the city. Easily 3 feet.

Anyone remember the vday storm of 2007? We got a couple of inches… of sleet! It was by far the worst sleet storm I’ve ever seen. Any chance of a redux?

25 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

It's illegal to not get NAM'd at least once a winter.

This is third time we’ve gotten NAM’d.

https://x.com/burgwx/status/1754230938953789706?s=46

I like February 2006 as an analogue for the upcoming February.

Nickels and dimes add up to dollars. Never forget that.

This is what winter is supposed to feel like. I love it!

I have a weird gut feeling about this storm that it may overperform for the city and eastern nj. 

This would be an incredible squall line in July. For January, it’s unbelievable.

Holy hell those winds are something out of a movie.

I just don't understand where alll this rain is going to go go to. We've had 2-4 inch rainstorms almost every week since September. I cannot imagine getting yet another storm like this. Yes, the winds are going to be bad and there will be Hurricane Gloria level power outages on LI, but I'm extremely concerned about the flooding potential with this, especially since it's going to melt all of the snowfall from the past week. I just don't understand how this isn't a bigger story.

Heavy wet snow here at the Giants game. Nothing accumulating on the ground.

29 minutes ago, North and West said:

I drove past 287 yesterday.


.

Mazal tov. 

The GFS is warm and weak. The EURO is colder and stronger. Oh no, the GFS is colder the EURO is warmer. Ah, they’re both too warm. The low is too far east, so it’s suppressed, now it’s too far west and I87 isn’t safe. 4 days out it’s nowcasting time. In a way, I didn’t miss not having something to chase, because of the model chaos. Everything was going fine until someone invoked March 2001. That storm should be banned from ever being mentioned. 

I don’t think nyc sees its first inch of snow yet. Too warm.

If we can push off this storm for 12 hours, we could get a helluva Giants game.

3 hours ago, NittanyWx said:

As discussed, the 6th-7th window is the one opportunity I dont totally dismiss regarding snow chances.  Still need a few things to go right to make it happen, but some HP in east Can is helpful.  You need to amp this some, but a deep bombing coastal low probably overwhelms marginal HP help for most in the area.

Weekend rule in effect…

The northern part of the area is covered in reds and yellows. 

2 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Here is the problem as I see it. While we've experienced lots of precipitation due to the almost tropical moisture accompanying storms which have hooked to our west our cold or modified cold outbreaks have been extremely transient and very short-lived. And when it's cold, it's dry. Storms are major super-moist lots of intensity with high winds and flooding and occur about every 7-10 days. Even though precip amounts are way above normal, it is NOT a stormy pattern historically for late December going into January. A stormy pattern over this time is an event every 3 days. When was the last time we got significant precipitation from a storm sliding under us with a cold HP to the north or n/w?? There are some red flags waving for the likelihood of the cold snowy winter forecasts most outlets have come up with. Even today's better looking maps which tend to be over 300 hours away do not show a ridge out west. Yes there's the split flow, but there's never cold HP locked in place when a low moves into the Plains and towards the east. Rather HP slides east of New England the low pressure curves northward and we are doused with heavy rain. I think this pattern of cold/dry alternating with warmer/wet will probably last into mid January at least and maybe longer. Then you look back at late starting winters here. Which ones are memorable? 1978 is the most notable. But I gotta say, there was fierce cold air pouring into the northeastern U.S. that year from November 1977 into December 1977 with several nights dropping well into the teens. We are struggling to get temperatures into the 20s this year. I'm just uncertain that what we'd like to see is going to happen this time.

WX/PT

The 20s in this climate are worth as much as the teens were in the 1970s. NYC just can’t get that cold anymore.

4 hours ago, Allsnow said:

The snowbirds will be cold in Florida 

 

 

Rolling blackouts in Tampa!

Want there that Norlurn over LI back around this time in 1988?

Wait… is it not going to rain this weekend? It rains every weekend. Since September. It’s not raining this weekend??

As afraid as we all were for the wind and rain, the area bore the brunt of the storm well. Mass transit was a mess, but besides that, no major issues.

Just now, steve392 said:

A lot of the heavy precip seen further west.  Has it trended further west? 

Ah, yes. The obligatory "It's further north, east, south, west than originally modeled" post.