TriPol

Actually, the 12z suite (excluding EURO which hasn't run yet) are pretty consistent with the track. Every single model takes the storm into central nj within 36-48 hours.

Jesus. A hybrid storm taking the same path Sandy took. More rain, much smaller wind field.

You mean issuing evacuations? There's not enough time. Absolutely NO model had this slamming into central NJ 48 hours ago. Not even the EURO or EURO AI.

Well, there won't be much subway service Monday morning if that verifies.

Wow! That explains a lot of why the forecast keeps getting worse for this beast. It hasn't even begun to deepen rapidly and its already down to 995. A lot of the forecasts from the EURO and GFS kept it just at 988 or even 987. I wonder if we get into the 970s and if we do, that's a completely different beast than what we were looking at early to mid week this week.

The 3K NAM initialized with the low pressure system at 987. That means, right now, the low pressure should be at 987. I don't know where to go to see the current pressure, but I doubt it's below 1000.

Also, why haven't NY and NJ issued states of emergency?

Is there anyone here who can talk to the meteorologists at Upton? Find out what the deal is?

There was a tropical season in 2026?

There's no reason why Long Island shouldn't be under these.

I don't see any High Wind Watches or Warnings for any part of New Jersey at all (which is a crime).

Hudson County is still Upton, unfortunately.

NWS blinked... a little. We now have Coastal Flood Warnings along the entire coast of Long Island. Really wish they would issue Flood Watches and High Wind Warnings as well. National Weather Service New York NY 644 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Coastal Flood Warnings have been issued for a large portion of the coastline to cover multiple high tide cycles from tonight through Sunday. The Wind Advisory was expanded in area. It now includes all of Long Island, NYC, all of S CT, all of Westchester, Rockland, and all but W Passaic in NE NJ. All ocean waters are now under a Storm Warning.

We do not need 5.4 inches of rain. Jesus Christ. I hope this is wrong.

Every single model is in agreement on what happens. There's no model taking this into Maine and hitting Maine. This is a high impact storm that will impact millions of people. They need to hoist warnings up ASAP.

I'm really concerned that NWS is warning New England but not Long Island. I don't really believe Boston is going to get the same impact that Long Island is. In fact, I don't even think the low pressure, until its completely fizzled out, moves north Seaside Heights. Every model has this moving West. So why are placed like MA and RI getting the warnings and not Long Island? Upton is REALLY slow to pull the trigger here.

Both the GFS and EURO have shown this. It'll be fascinating to watch in real time. Like a strong hurricane hurricane wobbles, this storm will do the same.

13z Sunday, it's headed west and retrograding. So odd to see a Nor'Easter do this, but then again, it's a hybrid system, not a true Nor'Easter. Think a less powerful version of Sandy/Halloween Storm '91. I wonder why hybrid storms do this.

Hurricane party in Mastic!

Cocktail? Sounds like my kind of storm watch!

984 is the lowest pressure I've seen.

The entire area should be under some kind of moderate storm watch and there should be specific advisories with that. Honestly, the European weather products are so much easier to understand.

I just don't get how most of the area is under a coastal flood advisory instead of a watch. NWS is really dropping the ball on this one,

Man this would've made an incredible winter storm! Hopefully it sets up for the winter.

Is @NEG NAOrunning the NWS today? GFS came west again. Enough model watching. Issue watches and warnings already.