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ag3

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Everything posted by ag3

  1. ag3
    I told everyone to not worry about the Euro. It often cuts back on precip before an event.
  2. ag3
    32.5 and snowing. Sticking already everywhere as well.
  3. ag3
    3km NAM is also amazing for the NYC metro and south.
  4. ag3
    NAM is great for NYC/LI and area.
  5. ag3
    NYC is in a great spot for this. We have wiggle room for the inevitable bump north.
  6. ag3
    Looks like a 5-8am change to snow for the coast.
  7. ag3
    I have seen the Euro cut back last minute and be wrong many times. Jan. 27, 2011 was one example. It cut back precip to .50" of precip inside of 24 hours. NYC received close to 20" of snow. There are other examples as well. When you have the GFS showing much more precip with dynamic banding + the Rgem/NAM and others agreeing, I would toss the Euro. I believe this is a 4"-8" snowfall for NYC/LI metro area with a risk for even higher, if the GFS deform band placement ends up right.
  8. ag3
    There's a deform band of 2"-3" an hour. I dont care what the city ground temp is, if it snows that hard, it will accumulate. Wherever the deform ccb sets up, will receive 6"-12"+. Right not, most models place that around NYC. As for the Euro, it has done these types of whacky precip cuts many times in these situations. I wouldn't worry about it.
  9. ag3
    Im not enthused about the 13th. I suspect the GFS will correct north and warmer today or tomorrow. I am however slightly enthused about Feb. 18-22. That's our best shot if confluence doesn't kill it.
  10. ag3
    One lucky storm in 15-16.
  11. ag3
    Euro and all long range modeling looks even worse overnight. Any pattern change looks to be pushed back to after Feb. 15th now, if it even comes. We are getting very close to the fat lady warming up her vocal box.
  12. ag3
    Shut it down:
  13. ag3
    And I'm talking about for those north and west. City and coast are already toast.
  14. ag3
    IMO, this trends warmer and warmer.
  15. ag3
    Guaranteed. March and April will likely be awful again. But I'm hoping we can finally stop that and have a torch spring.
  16. ag3
    Flipped to what? January will be above normal and only had 6-7 cold days. We are +1.2 now with the rest of January very above normal.
  17. ag3
    It will be very hard to scour away the pac warmth. Most of February, IMO, is done for winter. Most likely all of it.
  18. ag3
    NYC, LGA and JFK are now at 32 degrees.
  19. ag3
    Is it raining though? Here it's pure sleet.
  20. ag3
    There is usually a big lag. I believe January will struggle as well. Especially the 1st half of January.
  21. ag3
    Getting rapidly worse here now. Worse than even last night.
  22. ag3
    Bayside and Whitestone also had 18"-21".
  23. ag3
    I had 21" from snowicane in Astoria, Queens.
  24. ag3
    NYC likely breaks their snow less streak tomorrow morning.
  25. ag3
    All snow now here and pretty hard. Surprised.
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