ag3
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Everything posted by ag3
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There is usually a big lag. I believe January will struggle as well. Especially the 1st half of January.
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Getting rapidly worse here now. Worse than even last night.
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Bayside and Whitestone also had 18"-21".
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I had 21" from snowicane in Astoria, Queens.
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NYC likely breaks their snow less streak tomorrow morning.
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All snow now here and pretty hard. Surprised.
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Started as rain here in NE Queens. Now it's mostly snow with a little rain mixed in.
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I just had a little band pass and it was all snow. Waiting on the better band to my west.
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I believe NYC will see at least .5" of front end from the 1/25 storm and we will come up just short of the futility record.
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No cold air. Would take a perfect track and a perfect phase.
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There is nothing good about the foreseeable pattern on any model or ensemble. Not sure what anyone is seeing. Perhaps it improves by the end of January.
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Long range modeling looks bad. Not sure what the optimistic ones are seeing. -PNA, +Nao and +Ao
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Probably even worse when there is only a trace through January 10th, like there will be this year.
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Dec. 10th. There were also 3 traces in there.
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Agree, but the odds are against us. Even years with 1"-2" or lower for December, the good winters were rare. Not the norm.
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In the last 50 years, here are KNYC winters with a T or less in December and their Season totals: 72-73: 2.8" 94-95: 11.8" 97-98: 5.5" 99-00: 16.3" 01-02: 3.5" 06-07: 12.4" 11-12: 7.4" 15-16: 32.8" (All from 1 HECS in January, 2016) 18-19: 20.5" Average: 12.5"
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I'm just telling you the stats for the last 150+ years of NYC weather records. 2" or less in December is bad for NYC rest of winter 1" or less even worse. But there can always be an exception with a lucky HECS like in 2016.
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NYC had 7.7" in Dec. 2017. Above normal. 4.6" Dec. 9th 1.2" Dec. 14th 1.2" Dec. 15th A few more traces and then .7" Dec. 30th.
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In any year. If NYC sees less than 2" for December, chances of an above normal season go down DRAMATICALLY. If it's less than 1", the stats are even more grim. The only rare exception is 2015-2016. We lucked out with a HECS in January but overall no winter.
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Dec. 2010 had 3-4 coatings and then Boxing Day.
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Solid .5" here in Whitestone, Queens. .5" more than I expected. -
EPS have been pathetic the last 3+ years, for winter, but people have short memories and still believe they are the go to long range tool. No they are not. They are erratic and they are extremely bad with the pac. GEFS are much better, IMO, for the overall long range pattern.
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Why are people complaining about the GFS after day 7. No model is good after day 5-6. Using the GFS at hour 378 is comedy. The truth is that the GFS is the 1st model to catch the issues with the pac and the SE ridge. Euro caught on 2 days later. The EPS have been AWFUL! Not sure what people are looking at. The EPS have looked great in the day 7-15 period for 3 weeks and keeps pushing back the pattern. EPS was atrocious last year as well. Short memories.
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-NAO doesnt mean cold and snow. Need the pac. Especially in December.
