ag3

Started as rain here in NE Queens. Now it's mostly snow with a little rain mixed in.

I just had a little band pass and it was all snow. Waiting on the better band to my west.

I believe NYC will see at least .5" of front end from the 1/25 storm and we will come up just short of the futility record.

No cold air. Would take a perfect track and a perfect phase.

There is nothing good about the foreseeable pattern on any model or ensemble. Not sure what anyone is seeing. Perhaps it improves by the end of January.

Long range modeling looks bad. Not sure what the optimistic ones are seeing. -PNA, +Nao and +Ao

Probably even worse when there is only a trace through January 10th, like there will be this year.

Dec. 10th. There were also 3 traces in there.

1.0"

Agree, but the odds are against us. Even years with 1"-2" or lower for December, the good winters were rare. Not the norm.

In the last 50 years, here are KNYC winters with a T or less in December and their Season totals: 72-73: 2.8" 94-95: 11.8" 97-98: 5.5" 99-00: 16.3" 01-02: 3.5" 06-07: 12.4" 11-12: 7.4" 15-16: 32.8" (All from 1 HECS in January, 2016) 18-19: 20.5" Average: 12.5"

I'm just telling you the stats for the last 150+ years of NYC weather records. 2" or less in December is bad for NYC rest of winter 1" or less even worse. But there can always be an exception with a lucky HECS like in 2016.

NYC had 7.7" in Dec. 2017. Above normal. 4.6" Dec. 9th 1.2" Dec. 14th 1.2" Dec. 15th A few more traces and then .7" Dec. 30th.

In any year. If NYC sees less than 2" for December, chances of an above normal season go down DRAMATICALLY. If it's less than 1", the stats are even more grim. The only rare exception is 2015-2016. We lucked out with a HECS in January but overall no winter.

Dec. 2010 had 3-4 coatings and then Boxing Day.

Solid .5" here in Whitestone, Queens. .5" more than I expected.

EPS have been pathetic the last 3+ years, for winter, but people have short memories and still believe they are the go to long range tool. No they are not. They are erratic and they are extremely bad with the pac. GEFS are much better, IMO, for the overall long range pattern.

Why are people complaining about the GFS after day 7. No model is good after day 5-6. Using the GFS at hour 378 is comedy. The truth is that the GFS is the 1st model to catch the issues with the pac and the SE ridge. Euro caught on 2 days later. The EPS have been AWFUL! Not sure what people are looking at. The EPS have looked great in the day 7-15 period for 3 weeks and keeps pushing back the pattern. EPS was atrocious last year as well. Short memories.

-NAO doesnt mean cold and snow. Need the pac. Especially in December.

That -pna allows the se ridge to link up with the nao block. December cancel if that comes to fruition.

I didn't see this as much in SC or NC and here on Long Island, it's only in some areas. Florida was built like a European waterfront, except that in Florida a cat 4 or 5 hurricane can wipe it out in hours.

All hurricanes stall at one point while interacting with a front or waiting for steering current. Most of the time it's not right next to land and usually over the Gulf or Caribbean. Ian just happened to stall in the worst possible spot possible. Allowed for rapid intensification right before landfall and constant westerly flow for anyone south of the eye. Very bad luck lately with Michael, Ian and Dorian (for Bahamas).

Clearwater Beach barrier island is the biggest disaster waiting to happen and they got very lucky with Ian. They have built every inch of that barrier island. New homes, condos, hotels, restaurants, etc. Right on the Gulf, on the inlet, on all the waterways and the beach there is very narrow.

I was just in SW Florida. Last month. From Clearwater Beach to Captiva. Visited all of it and made stops at several of the pristine beaches. The entire time I was thinking, I cant believe what they have built on these barrier islands. It was a disaster waiting to happen. They got complacent and built homes, condos and beachfront buildings where they should not have been. I'm curious to see if they rebuild to the same extent. If I'm an insurance company, I would never again cover any structure on those barrier Islands and if I did, the premium would be tens of thousands a year.

Jim Cantore is in Punta Gorda live right now. Not that bad yet but should get much worse soon.