rduwx
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Everything posted by rduwx
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I believe the Nam looking better is a matter of opinion... LOL! I don't think .8 of zr is better. Just give me the rn. Like I said that's a matter of opinion.
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1034 hp at hr 30. I believe it was in the 1040 range a couple days ago.
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Once that warm nose makes an appearance for the RDU area, I've learned to count on it. It's usually worse than modeled. I'm not saying that's the case for this storm but I've found that mostly true for past storms.
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Today was a good day on the models for RDU but like Grit, I believe there will be more changes to come. We have a lot more model runs to go...LOL!
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Agreed, I've seen it way too many times. If every model run from now until the event was like this, I'd definitely expect major mixing. Usually if the mixing is that close, you can take it to the bank for my area.
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That's always been a concern. It's going to be close. I do think we start as snow.
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That's good news! At work so can't check models as they're coming out.
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Talking about trends earlier, that has been a trend on the NAM. I believe it was 1041 at one time. I don't want to see it continue to drop, that's for sure.
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Yes, I agree. At this point I feel confident we get the snow at the beginning. Then it's a matter of how long we hold on to that. After the transition starts it's going to be close to what that p-type is. Again this is talking from what I've seen lately. This could easily change in the next 2 days...LOL!
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It'll be interesting to see if that change over is more of a zr vs a rn scenario. Or if we get a lot more mixing period. It is extremely close in my area.
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Ahhh, OK.
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Did you move to the western part of NC? Even though you seem to usually do better than us closer to Raleigh.
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Based on the 12z Euro there is between a 80% and 90% chance Wake County receives 1" of snow.
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Control run did show around 10" for Wake. The EPS Mean was a lot lower.
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I'm in agreement eyewall. Great looking system but I believe the cold will be lacking for us. The further west of Raleigh you go the better imo. Hopefully things will change in the modeling today that will make me change my mind.
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Yes, I agree. I was just looking at that myself.
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I almost said this exact same thing. When I saw the the gradient running through Wake County I said this will verify...LOL!
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He's on another site.
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That thing in your avatar showed up!
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12z euro has the same wave and setup but we need to have it slow down some. We'll need some separation from the day 5 cutter.
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Similar to that last storm...If it continues to show up in future runs, will it come far enough west is going to be the question.
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pack!.... Just kidding pack!
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This is crazy...Every time I think its filling in, it comes back in the next frame. You're right, we'll definitely remember this.
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It might be me...I started this hobby about 13 years ago and we've been in this drought it seems like the entire time (with the exception of 2010)...
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When I look at the radar, I just have to laugh.
