rduwx

No problem. I will say I didn't like some of the things I saw at the 500 level. It looked to my amateur eyes that it took a step towards the what the gfs and euro showed at 12z.

The NAM didn't end up being terrible. Not some of the bombs we saw on yesterday's 18z runs but still not terrible.

Precip didn't really expand west on the 18z nam. There is more precip to the south. I would expect amounts in the RDU area to be close to 12z.

I remember that storm. We've been around to see some bad trends.

I was thinking about this earlier. I believe I've seen every bad trend there is since I started this hobby almost 20 years ago but I don't think I've ever had a positive trend. This one ranks up there as far as gut punches though...LOL!

How do I always end up in this thread after tracking storms for a week? Of course this is just a little humor to try to lighten the mood a little. A few inches of snow with these temps will still be fun. Of course I would prefer what models were showing yesterday but trends this morning aren't headed that way.

Looking at the 12z euro ens members, I'd say several are still showing a phase with the amount of moisture in the western part of NC.

Goes back to the old saying, "meteorology over modelogy"...LOL!

Even though I don't have much confidence in the ICON, for those in central to eastern part of NC, this is the type of track and strength we'd like to see. Haven't seen snow totals but would expect higher totals for the RDU area. I do believe there would still be some mixing but not near as much.

I know over the past 20 years of tracking storms for this area that the warm nose is always under modeled. I'm not sure the reason but there have been many times models showed all snow and I had mixing issues. Just the area we live in. I'm looking forward to a possible storm this weekend but I believe it's always best to count on mixing issues for the RDU area. Therefore you're not surprised when it happens. Not necessarily directed at you Brick. The good news is the mixing makes for some good sledding weather. Yes, 52 years young and still go sledding with the kids...LOL!

Yes, 12z showed another system for Friday 1/21.

Surely possible. I will say with the more amped solution, the warm nose for our area is going to be an issue. If history is a factor, then the warm nose is always under modeled. I've seen it so many times over the years.

I peaked at the old black and whites and it appears to be a WNC special also. LP tracks slightly inland like the 12z gfs. Hopefully better maps will give more detail.

Yes, I agree. Not putting a lot of stock in the ICON on the placement. Hopefully we don't see this in future model runs.

For higher totals in Wilson, you need the LP off the coast to be further east of the location showed on the ICON. If you noticed the map Wow posted, the LP is right on the coast or slightly inland. Need that a little east.

It turned out a lot better on the sfc than I was expecting watching the 500 maps. LOL!

The wave dropping south appeared to be a little east of previous runs on the ICON. We need the wave to be a little further west as it drops down so it has time to make the turn. Hopefully we don't see this in future model runs today.

Agreed! I'll take having this look 6 days out anytime! LOL! Of course I'm hoping for more qpf to show up in future runs.

12z euro was more strung out and tilt wasn't as close to neutral. Just one run and lots of time for this to change but these are things we need to see improve moving forward for more qpf imo.

If I remember correctly, it was an upper level low and the deform band dumped snow in one spot.

I also remember being jealous!

If I remember correctly, that was an upper level low where the deformation band set up over you for hours.

Any other models showing this storm? I didn't purchase the model suite this year and have to admit, it feels good asking that question. It's probably been since 2005 since I've asked that... We do have weekend rule on our side.

I laughed at this so it'll probably happen...LOL!