NJwx85

12z GFS still develops 94L as the system approaches the lesser Antilles, very close to where Dorian formed. The track is then close to Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.

NHC gave it a 70% chance of development within 5 days. Spaghetti models are pretty locked into the idea of slow development and a West track.

The current movement is at 45 degrees which means it's still on a Northeasterly track. But just like during Winter, we have influence from the high over Maine/SE Canada. That's helping to funnel dry air down through Western New England and the current dewpoints are a reflection of that. If we were truly going to get an impact, it would be much more humid than it is now. The trough is too far East for us to get much rain.

The radar this morning reminds me of many coastal storms during the Winter that pounded the mid-atlantic while we smoked cirrus up here. You can blame the kicker coming out of the mid-west for the hard right turn.

Verbatim it would be a good shellacking. Especially since a lot of the guidance deepens the storm again once past OBX.

12z HMON pummels Long Island and the Jersey shore on Friday into Saturday with heavy rain and 40-50mph winds.

Don't think we need a separate thread for local impacts from Dorian but a lot of the latest guidance brings some direct impacts into the area, especially for Eastern sections.

It's not even worth discussing but a track up the coast like that has been seen many times including most recently Irene. Biggest threat with those storms is inland river flooding. You really need a track like the 12z GFS showed yesterday to get meaningful storm surge into the NYC area and New England.

LOL

The GFS develops the next wave coming off Africa. Takes a very similar track to Dorian. Ends up getting captured and rocketed up the coast lol

Some pics I took at the football game last night during the severe warned storms. https://twitter.com/mobforever2/status/1159797183815868417?s=12

Had almost 5” of rain in Mahwah for the 11/2-11/3 storm.

PA tornado outbreak?

"Shaking felt thousands of miles away, devastation from Boston to DC as 8.0 magnitude Earthquake strikes along the Ramapo fault in NJ"

Is @HurricaneJosh still over in that region? If so, might as well hope over to Taiwan for the next one.

He hasn’t posted anything on Twitter or Facebook for roughly seven hours. He said he was about to lose all connectivity and he was still well outside the eyewall. Probably one of his most dangerous chases ever given the remote location and intensity.

DIX destroyed OKX this time around.

It's really annoying that KDIX is down again.

With the clocks going back this weekend we're really going to start dropping into the doldrums of late Autumn. We've been lucky that it's been a relatively dry and mild Autumn so far, however that looks to change, at least somewhat moving ahead. I'm playing golf on Saturday afternoon in an attempt to hold onto the last gasps of outdoor activities. So we're three weeks away from Thanksgiving and about 7 1/2 weeks away from Christmas, and then we start turning the corner as days begin getting longer once again. It will be a slow few weeks in January, especially if the Southeast ridge returns, which I strongly favor in my thinking. After that it's two weeks for pitchers and catchers, the Daytona 500 and away we go as the long awaited first signs of Spring begin to emerge. It's always a great feeling that first day in late March when you can open up the windows and breathe in the fresh air after being cooped up for the previous 14 weeks or so. I love snow as much as anyone, but I have no use for cold. And the older I get, the more and more I hate the Winter. I take solace in knowing that legitimate Winter in these parts is usually no more than a 12 week affair, and hopefully this year it will be even less.

Cold Winters are overrated and no guarantee for a Snowy season. How many times in recent history have we been stuck under the cold and dry PV while areas to the South and East got pounded with storm after storm? Plus who doesn't like breaking out the shorts for a few days in Mid-February? I love snow just as much as the next person, but I have no use for cold and dry.

Autumn sucks. I hope we stay in the 70's and 80's through at least the next few weeks.

My Wife and I rented UTV's in Aruba, they were awesome. Saw the Flamingos too.

Congrats bro!

The strong ridging in place since late August has kept most of the tropical moisture to our South and East.

Unless I am reading this wrong, I don't see any drought over Northern NJ. Again, most of the Summer was wet out this way. The dry spell has only lasted a few weeks so far.