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NJwx85

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Everything posted by NJwx85

  1. NJwx85
    It would be nice if we held onto a Summery feel for at least the month of September. Especially since our Winters have been so back loaded as of late.
  2. NJwx85
    Hopefully we torch until just before Thanksgiving.
  3. NJwx85
  4. NJwx85
    While storm quality has lacked some, we’ve had very few fish storms. Almost everything that’s developed so far has hit land.
  5. NJwx85
    Still need to watch the tropics around mid month.
  6. NJwx85
    It looks pretty healthy to me.
  7. NJwx85
    The center was partially missed by the latest ASCAT pass, but from what we can see, it does appear to have a closed circulation on the Eastern side.
  8. NJwx85
    12Z PARA GEFS still really likes the idea of a system on either side of Florida around mid month.
  9. NJwx85
    Still early but at least for now, path looks similar to Felix.
  10. NJwx85
    And my initial point was that NY is no more special than any other highly densely populated area in the country. Chicago experiences the same forecasting criticisms as us with snow and severe. Same goes for every other big city. LA would too if they actually had more than 2 seasons.
  11. NJwx85
    The models lost the big rains for today three days ago.
  12. NJwx85
    New Jersey is the most densely populated state in the country.
  13. NJwx85
    This forum is a lot wider than 25 miles.
  14. NJwx85
    It was a bust, especially considering we were in a day 2 enhanced risk with hatched probabilities.
  15. NJwx85
    It's there on the ensembles.
  16. NJwx85
    The 12z GFS operational may have lost the big tropical threat towards the middle of September but it's still alive and well on the ensembles. Big -NAO signal as well.
  17. NJwx85
    It's tough to get a lot of activity in here when you have a positively tilted trough with a closed ULL over Western Kentucky. If we had something to amplify the flow we would have had a soaking. I haven't looked at the Euro yet, but the only model left that brings in decent rains tomorrow is the 12z RGEM and even that is going to be hit or miss.
  18. NJwx85
    Just for schits and giggles
  19. NJwx85
    The signal is there for a late recurve, and it's a bit more concerning than usual. I feel like I've seen this before. Not sure if this is the GFS picking up on extra-tropical transition and a spreading out of the wind field? Or if this is just typical of pole-ward moving hurricanes gradually weakening under decreasing SST.
  20. NJwx85
  21. NJwx85
    If we get anything today it's probably going to be isolated. For starters, storms are currently in progress near I-80 in PA and Eastern Ohio. MCS's almost always dive Southeastward, so based on current observations, severe activity is probably limited to areas South of Philly and primarily more towards the Baltimore to DC corridor.
  22. NJwx85
  23. NJwx85
    An MCS is building to the West of Mansfield. The NAM brings that’s through here in about 6 hours. Even the 3k NAM is poorly representing current activity.
  24. NJwx85
    The 18z 3k NAM has two lines moving through the area, one around 00z and the next one at 06z. The line moving through CT smacks Suffolk.
  25. NJwx85
    I just counted six different supercells moving through Southern NY.
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